Why Ashton Jeanty Deserves More Consideration For No. 1

[ASFN Admin]

There is no such thing as a completely safe first pick in fantasy football. Running backs get hurt. Quarterbacks change. Offensive lines collapse. Coaches say strange things in August and do the exact opposite in September.

The goal at No. 1 is not to eliminate risk. It is to select the player with the best combination of opportunity, talent, positional advantage and league-winning upside.

In 2026, that player is Ashton Jeanty.

Yes, taking Jeanty ahead of the established fantasy superstars will make some people uncomfortable. That is understandable after his rookie season failed to match the enormous expectations attached to his RB6 average draft position. Jeanty finished as the RB11 in total PPR scoring and around RB16 on a per-game basis. In standard formats, he fell to RB15.

Those results were disappointing, but they were not evidence that Jeanty was overrated. They were evidence that even a tremendously talented running back can only drag a broken offense so far.

Now the Raiders have rebuilt the environment around him. They have a new offensive system, a reinforced line and a coaching staff with a long history of feeding its backfield. Add Jeanty's three-down ability to that formula, and you get a legitimate overall RB1 candidate at the thinnest premium position in fantasy football.

That is why I am willing to take him first.

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The Rookie Numbers Need Context​

Jeanty's basic rushing numbers did not justify his lofty draft price last season. That part is not up for debate. He averaged only 15.6 carries per game, and the Raiders finished last in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns while ranking second-to-last in rushing attempts.

Las Vegas also averaged a league-worst 14.2 points per game. Cleveland scored roughly two more points per contest, which is never the comparison an offense wants to hear.

The Raiders ranked 31st in running back yards before contact per carry. Only the Browns gave their backs less room to operate. Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly was fired after only 11 games, and Jeanty routinely received the ball with defenders already crashing into the backfield. That is not an environment. It is an obstacle course.

When Jeanty was given even one yard before contact, however, he looked like one of the league’s best runners. He finished 11th in yards after contact, sixth in missed tackles forced, seventh in elusive rating, third in both broken tackles and third in broken tackles per rushing attempt. Jeanty forced 61 missed tackles overall. He was not merely collecting empty touches. He was creating yards that the blocking did not provide.

The explosive ceiling also appeared when the offense briefly functioned. Jeanty erupted for 155 yards and three touchdowns against Chicago, then produced 188 yards and two scores against Houston. Those performances were reminders that his rookie scouting profile did not disappear when he reached Las Vegas. The Raiders simply spent too much of the season asking him to escape a phone booth before he could start running.

Bet on the Kubiak Volume Machine​

The biggest reason to elevate Jeanty to No. 1 is the arrival of head coach Klint Kubiak and offensive line coach Rick Dennison. Kubiak comes to Las Vegas after coordinating a Seattle offense that scored 28.4 points per game and won the Super Bowl. More importantly for fantasy managers, Kubiak and Dennison have repeatedly built offenses around a committed running game.

Across their shared stops in Minnesota, New Orleans and Seattle, their teams averaged approximately 28.2 rushing attempts per game. Their rushing volume by season included 29.8 attempts per game in Minnesota in 2019, 29.3 in 2020 and 29.8 with Seattle in 2025. This is not a coaching staff that treats the running game like an occasional changeup.

Jeanty averaged 15.6 carries per game as a rookie. If that number climbs by only three carries per game, he would gain approximately 51 additional rushing attempts over a 17-game season. A four-carry increase would give him 68 more opportunities.

At a modest 4.2 yards per attempt, those extra carries alone would add between 214 and 286 rushing yards. They would also generate more chances for explosive plays, goal-line carries and clock-killing fourth-quarter work. Volume is the engine of running back production, and Jeanty has a clear path to one of the NFL’s largest workloads.

He Can Win Through the Air, Too​

Jeanty is not dependent on carries alone. He caught 55 passes as a rookie despite the dysfunction surrounding him, and that receiving ability is what separates his ceiling from many other early-round running backs.

Kubiak's backfields have historically been active in the passing game. Minnesota running backs caught 94 passes in 2021, New Orleans backs recorded 97 receptions in 2024 and Seattle’s group finished with 53 in 2025. That is an average of more than 81 backfield receptions per season.

Jeanty is clearly the Raiders back most qualified to dominate that work. If he moves from 55 receptions into the 60-to-70 range, he will have the receiving floor fantasy managers normally associate with the safest elite running backs.

The quarterback situation should help. Kirk Cousins has spent years working in the short areas of the field, with roughly two-thirds of his attempts over the last five seasons traveling nine yards or fewer. Checkdowns are also an intentional component of Kubiak's offense rather than a last-second surrender.

We saw Cousins help Bijan Robinson average 4.5 receptions per game from Weeks 12 through 18 last season. Jeanty can occupy a similar role: protection outlet, designed receiver and open-field weapon.

There has even been public discussion of Christian McCaffrey's 83% snap rate as a possible benchmark for Jeanty. He does not need to reach that exact number to pay off as the first pick, but the comparison reveals the staff's intentions. The Raiders are not planning a committee. They are building around a workhorse.

The Bijan Robinson Blueprint​

Robinson provides the most useful comparison for Jeanty’s projected second-year leap. As a rookie in 2023, Robinson scored 246.3 PPR points and finished as the RB9. Jeanty’s first season produced an eerily similar 245.1 points and an RB11 finish.

Some fantasy managers responded to Robinson’s underwhelming rookie year by fading him the following season. They missed a 341.7-point campaign and an RB3 finish - a 35% increase in PPR production.

Apply a similar increase to Jeanty’s rookie total, and he would land around 331 fantasy points. That is absolutely within the range needed to challenge for overall RB1 honors. The point is not that Jeanty is guaranteed to copy Robinson's career arc. It is that elite running back prospects often produce solid rookie seasons that feel disappointing only because expectations were unreasonable.

When the second-year player receives better blocking, a clearer role and more competent play-calling, the breakthrough can happen quickly. Do not let last year's frustration become this year's evaluation.

Touchdowns Are the Swing Statistic​

Jeanty handled 44 red-zone touches as a rookie, accounting for nearly 90% of the Raiders' running back opportunities in that area. The next closest back received five.

That is domination.

The problem was that Las Vegas rarely reached scoring territory and finished last in rushing touchdowns. Jeanty had the red-zone role without enough red-zone trips. If Kubiak can move the Raiders from historically dreadful to merely average, Jeanty’s touchdown projection changes dramatically. A player controlling close to 90% of his backfield’s red-zone work does not need an elite offense to score 12 or more touchdowns. He needs a functional one.

Brock Bowers also helps create that functionality. Defenses must respect Bowers as a receiver, limiting how aggressively they can crowd the box. Kubiak's wide-zone system will stretch those defenders horizontally, creating cutback opportunities for a runner who already excels at breaking tackles and changing direction.

Jeanty produced despite running into traffic. Imagine what happens when the traffic begins moving the other way.

Why Jeanty Over the Other Elite Backs?​

James Cook, Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Kenneth Walker III, De’Von Achane, Chase Brown and Omarion Hampton all deserve early consideration. Several play in offenses that appear safer than Las Vegas.

But the first pick is about more than selecting the cleanest projection.

Some of those backs face greater competition for touches. Others have durability concerns, uncertain receiving volume or quarterbacks who regularly steal goal-line touchdowns. Jeanty has a credible path to 300-plus carries, more than 60 receptions and almost complete control of the Raiders’ red-zone backfield work.

That combination is fantasy gold.

Selecting Jeanty also takes advantage of positional scarcity. Wide receiver is deep enough to build a strong group in Rounds 2 through 6. True three-down running backs are much harder to find. If Jeanty hits his ceiling, you gain a weekly advantage at a position where many opponents will be guessing between committee members.

There will be weeks when an elite receiver outscores him. There may be stretches when a safer veteran looks like the smarter pick. Over an entire season, however, a healthy back receiving 20-plus touches, catching passes and controlling goal-line work can become the most valuable asset in fantasy football.

Stop Drafting Based On Last Year's Individual Finishes​

Fantasy managers love to say they want upside, but many drafts become exercises in buying the previous season's final leaderboard. Jeanty requires a little more imagination.

You must believe his advanced rushing metrics matter more than the Raiders' ugly team totals. You must recognize that coaching philosophy can reshape volume. You must project what a talented second-year player can become instead of punishing him forever for being trapped in a terrible rookie environment.

The analytics support the leap. The roster construction supports the workload. The scheme supports his running style. The quarterback supports his receiving floor. The red-zone share supports double-digit touchdown upside.

Jeanty already proved he could survive dysfunction. In 2026, he finally gets a chance to thrive in structure. Take Jeanty with the first pick, enjoy the nervous reactions from the rest of your league and let everyone else fight over the safer names.

By November, they may be asking why they did not see it coming.


This article originally appeared on The Huddle: Why Ashton Jeanty Deserves More Consideration For No. 1

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