Week 18 Playoff Scenarios

TheCardinal

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With the win over Dallas, the Cardinals have clinched no worse than the 5-seed. If we don’t catch the Rams (we would need an ARI win + LAR loss), we are the 5-seed.

If we do catch the Rams at 12-5, we could be as high as the 2-seed. We would win all tie-breakers over TB. We would win MOST tie-breakers over Dallas.

The only way Dallas can jump us in a tie-breaker is if GB if tied at 12-5 too. That would negate our head-to-head advantage. We would want GB to win at least once more to avoid that scenario.

Three-way tie between ARI/TB/DAL goes to Arizona. Cowboys out in head-to-head swept. Then ARI over TB on conference record. Just DON’T want GB there too.

More to come once I crunch the numbers. We cannot be the 1-seed any longer per my calculations.
 
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TheCardinal

TheCardinal

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Thanks TheCardinal - love your analysis on these topics.

Should we be rooting for a playoff road game (not in Green Bay)? :)
It makes me nervous playing a team we just beat (Dallas) which is the most likely scenario. Good news is that if the Packers win one more, they can’t be the 4-seed.
 

JosiahLee

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Here is a link to the play simulator:


If the Rams beat SF, we are playing Dallas regardless of whether or not they win or loss next week, and regardless of whether we win or lose next week.
 

Crimson Warrior

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Here is a link to the play simulator:


If the Rams beat SF, we are playing Dallas regardless of whether or not they win or loss next week, and regardless of whether we win or lose next week.

Wow. At jerry's world, correct?

We can beat them twice, but we'll have to play better if we meet them in the playoffs. I don't think there's much question they had kind of off day today, and the officiating will be even worse for us vs. "America's team" in the post season.
 

JosiahLee

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Wow. At jerry's world, correct?

We can beat them twice, but we'll have to play better if we meet them in the playoffs. I don't think there's much question they had kind of off day today, and the officiating will be even worse for us vs. "America's team" in the post season.
Yeah we would travel back to Dallas. There’s no way they look that funky again on offense IMO. The clock was our friend today, more time and it seemed inevitable they would have pulled off the comeback.

I know we aren’t the best at home, but dang it I want a home playoff game and I just don’t like the idea of having to beat them again on such short notice.
 
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TheCardinal

TheCardinal

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Here is a link to the play simulator:


If the Rams beat SF, we are playing Dallas regardless of whether or not they win or loss next week, and regardless of whether we win or lose next week.
Yes. . . Unless the Vikings make an incredible comeback tonight and the Lions upset GB next week. I suspect your scenario will become official in a very short time.
 

SoonerLou

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Yeah we would travel back to Dallas. There’s no way they look that funky again on offense IMO. The clock was our friend today, more time and it seemed inevitable they would have pulled off the comeback.

I know we aren’t the best at home, but dang it I want a home playoff game and I just don’t like the idea of having to beat them again on such short notice.
I think having Conner and DJ back would go a long way. Keeping Chase fresh enough as well.
 

Crimson Warrior

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I think having Conner and DJ back would go a long way. Keeping Chase fresh enough as well.

There is absolutely no doubt that our conventional running game is more potent with both the wrecking ball James Conner and the fleet footed Edmonds both available. If there's hope in the post season, I honestly think it lies there, because not having D Hop marginalizes our WR Corp, and thus our passing offense. It's still okay. Wesley is trying, but we're not as explosive without Hopkins.

But I liked how we stayed committed to the run today. 32 rushing attempts vs. 39 passes. Much, much better, and I think it made the play action more effective.

If we have to beat the Cowboys again, that's the key. Keep Zeke and Lamb and Cooper on the sidelines.
 
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TheCardinal

TheCardinal

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After the GB win over MIN, here is what I think we can say. GB clinched #1. Eagles clinched a wildcard spot. Saints can still catch 49ers.

If the Rams beat SF, we are #5 and are locked into playing at #4 Dallas, regardless of what else happens.

If we win the West (ARI win + LA loss), the Cowboys are locked into #4, the Rams are #5, the 49ers are #6, and the Eagles are #7. We would be either #3 if the Bucs win (and thus host SF) or #2 if the Bucs lose (and thus host PHI).

It gets a bit messy if the Rams lose AND the Cards lose. We would be #5. But our opponent at #4 could be at Dallas (if they lose to PHI), at Los Angeles (if DAL and TB both win), or at Tampa Bay (if DAL wins and TB loses).
 

pemory09

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As the table posted above shows (many thanks Red on White), a Niners loss to the Rams + a Saints win (they’re at Atlanta) means SF is eliminated. This is excellent news as the Niners will be fighting to keep their season alive while the Rams will only be looking to secure the division title/higher seeding, and the more desperate team (SF) should be highly motivated to win; therefore I like the Cards chances to capture the NFC West.

Of course, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if everything broke right for the Cards only for them to then lose to a lousy Seattle team at home. Would kind of make perfect sense with the way this season has played out.
 
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TheCardFan

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a Niners loss to the Rams + a Saints win (they’re at Atlanta) means SF is eliminated. This is excellent news as the Niners will be fighting to keep their season alive while the Rams will only be looking to secure the division title/higher seeding, and the more desperate team (SF) should be highly motivated to win;

Maybe the NFL flexes the Falcons/Saints game to 4pm but the way it stand today - the 49ers will know if the Saints win/lose before they play.

Good thing if Saints win but probably bad if they lose?
 

pemory09

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Maybe the NFL flexes the Falcons/Saints game to 4pm but the way it stand today - the 49ers will know if the Saints win/lose before they play.

Good thing if Saints win but probably bad if they lose?
The Saints-Falcons is a late (2:25 p.m.) kick.
 

pemory09

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Cool...looks like that just happened.

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media



NFL.com still shows 1pm.

You must be registered for see images attach
Ahhh, what does the NFL know?! ;)
 

JosiahLee

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They are a bit overrated
They had a really easy schedule, same for the Cowboys
Yeah I think they are starting to play good football and Hurts is really settling in as a starting qb in this league. I think they would be dangerous for a first rd upset.
 

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