Week 18 Playoff Scenarios

[TheCardinal]

With the win over Dallas, the Cardinals have clinched no worse than the 5-seed. If we don’t catch the Rams (we would need an ARI win + LAR loss), we are the 5-seed.

If we do catch the Rams at 12-5, we could be as high as the 2-seed. We would win all tie-breakers over TB. We would win MOST tie-breakers over Dallas.

The only way Dallas can jump us in a tie-breaker is if GB if tied at 12-5 too. That would negate our head-to-head advantage. We would want GB to win at least once more to avoid that scenario.

Three-way tie between ARI/TB/DAL goes to Arizona. Cowboys out in head-to-head swept. Then ARI over TB on conference record. Just DON’T want GB there too.

More to come once I crunch the numbers. We cannot be the 1-seed any longer per my calculations.

 

[TheCardFan]

Thanks TheCardinal - love your analysis on these topics.

Should we be rooting for a playoff road game (not in Green Bay)?

 

[TheCardinal]

Thanks TheCardinal - love your analysis on these topics.

Should we be rooting for a playoff road game (not in Green Bay)?

It makes me nervous playing a team we just beat (Dallas) which is the most likely scenario. Good news is that if the Packers win one more, they can’t be the 4-seed.

 

[TheCardinal]

Sorry, renamed the thread. Should be Week 18

 

[Zeem_Freeze]

thank you for these threads

 

[don7031]

With Green Bay as 1st seed:

Cardinals lose or LA win = 5th seed, play at Dallas

Cardinals win & LA loss & TB loss = 2nd seed, host Philadelphia

Cardinals win & LA loss & TB win = 3rd seed, host San Francisco

 

[JosiahLee]

Here is a link to the play simulator:

ESPN.com's 2023 NFL Playoff Machine - Playoff Matchup Predictor

Use the NFL Playoff Machine from ESPN to predict the NFL Playoff matchups by generating the various matchup scenarios based on your selections.

www.espn.com

If the Rams beat SF, we are playing Dallas regardless of whether or not they win or loss next week, and regardless of whether we win or lose next week.

 

[Crimson Warrior]

Here is a link to the play simulator:

ESPN.com's 2023 NFL Playoff Machine - Playoff Matchup Predictor

Use the NFL Playoff Machine from ESPN to predict the NFL Playoff matchups by generating the various matchup scenarios based on your selections.

www.espn.com

If the Rams beat SF, we are playing Dallas regardless of whether or not they win or loss next week, and regardless of whether we win or lose next week.

Wow. At jerry's world, correct?

We can beat them twice, but we'll have to play better if we meet them in the playoffs. I don't think there's much question they had kind of off day today, and the officiating will be even worse for us vs. "America's team" in the post season.

 

[JosiahLee]

Wow. At jerry's world, correct?

We can beat them twice, but we'll have to play better if we meet them in the playoffs. I don't think there's much question they had kind of off day today, and the officiating will be even worse for us vs. "America's team" in the post season.

Yeah we would travel back to Dallas. There’s no way they look that funky again on offense IMO. The clock was our friend today, more time and it seemed inevitable they would have pulled off the comeback.

I know we aren’t the best at home, but dang it I want a home playoff game and I just don’t like the idea of having to beat them again on such short notice.

 

[TheCardinal]

Here is a link to the play simulator:

ESPN.com's 2023 NFL Playoff Machine - Playoff Matchup Predictor

Use the NFL Playoff Machine from ESPN to predict the NFL Playoff matchups by generating the various matchup scenarios based on your selections.

www.espn.com

If the Rams beat SF, we are playing Dallas regardless of whether or not they win or loss next week, and regardless of whether we win or lose next week.

Yes. . . Unless the Vikings make an incredible comeback tonight and the Lions upset GB next week. I suspect your scenario will become official in a very short time.

 

[JosiahLee]

Yes. . . Unless the Vikings make an incredible comeback tonight and the Lions upset GB next week. I suspect your scenario will become official in a very short time.

Yeah I pretty much eliminated the idea of Vikings winning tonight.

 

[SoonerLou]

Yeah we would travel back to Dallas. There’s no way they look that funky again on offense IMO. The clock was our friend today, more time and it seemed inevitable they would have pulled off the comeback.

I know we aren’t the best at home, but dang it I want a home playoff game and I just don’t like the idea of having to beat them again on such short notice.

I think having Conner and DJ back would go a long way. Keeping Chase fresh enough as well.

 

[Crimson Warrior]

I think having Conner and DJ back would go a long way. Keeping Chase fresh enough as well.

There is absolutely no doubt that our conventional running game is more potent with both the wrecking ball James Conner and the fleet footed Edmonds both available. If there's hope in the post season, I honestly think it lies there, because not having D Hop marginalizes our WR Corp, and thus our passing offense. It's still okay. Wesley is trying, but we're not as explosive without Hopkins.

But I liked how we stayed committed to the run today. 32 rushing attempts vs. 39 passes. Much, much better, and I think it made the play action more effective.

If we have to beat the Cowboys again, that's the key. Keep Zeke and Lamb and Cooper on the sidelines.

 

[TheCardinal]

After the GB win over MIN, here is what I think we can say. GB clinched #1. Eagles clinched a wildcard spot. Saints can still catch 49ers.

If the Rams beat SF, we are #5 and are locked into playing at #4 Dallas, regardless of what else happens.

If we win the West (ARI win + LA loss), the Cowboys are locked into #4, the Rams are #5, the 49ers are #6, and the Eagles are #7. We would be either #3 if the Bucs win (and thus host SF) or #2 if the Bucs lose (and thus host PHI).

It gets a bit messy if the Rams lose AND the Cards lose. We would be #5. But our opponent at #4 could be at Dallas (if they lose to PHI), at Los Angeles (if DAL and TB both win), or at Tampa Bay (if DAL wins and TB loses).

 

[Red on White]

You must be registered for see images attach

 

[pemory09]

As the table posted above shows (many thanks Red on White), a Niners loss to the Rams + a Saints win (they’re at Atlanta) means SF is eliminated. This is excellent news as the Niners will be fighting to keep their season alive while the Rams will only be looking to secure the division title/higher seeding, and the more desperate team (SF) should be highly motivated to win; therefore I like the Cards chances to capture the NFC West.

Of course, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if everything broke right for the Cards only for them to then lose to a lousy Seattle team at home. Would kind of make perfect sense with the way this season has played out.

 

[RON_IN_OC]

I don’t know why, but I want no part of hosting the Eagles.

 

[JosiahLee]

I don’t know why, but I want no part of hosting the Eagles.

Agreed. A silver lining if we don’t win the division would be seeing the Rams getting bounced in rd 1 by a hot Eagles team.

 

[juza76]

Agreed. A silver lining if we don’t win the division would be seeing the Rams getting bounced in rd 1 by a hot Eagles team.

They are a bit overrated
They had a really easy schedule, same for the Cowboys

 

[TheCardFan]

I don’t know why, but I want no part of hosting the Eagles.

hot Eagles team

Eh. They beat Washington twice, the Giants, and the Jets. All bottom 7 in the NFL standings.

 

[TheCardFan]

a Niners loss to the Rams + a Saints win (they’re at Atlanta) means SF is eliminated. This is excellent news as the Niners will be fighting to keep their season alive while the Rams will only be looking to secure the division title/higher seeding, and the more desperate team (SF) should be highly motivated to win;

Maybe the NFL flexes the Falcons/Saints game to 4pm but the way it stand today - the 49ers will know if the Saints win/lose before they play.

Good thing if Saints win but probably bad if they lose?

 

[pemory09]

Maybe the NFL flexes the Falcons/Saints game to 4pm but the way it stand today - the 49ers will know if the Saints win/lose before they play.

Good thing if Saints win but probably bad if they lose?

The Saints-Falcons is a late (2:25 p.m.) kick.

 

[TheCardFan]

The Saints-Falcons is a late (2:25 p.m.) kick.

Cool...looks like that just happened.

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NFL.com still shows 1pm.

You must be registered for see images attach

 

[pemory09]

Cool...looks like that just happened.

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

NFL.com still shows 1pm.

You must be registered for see images attach

Ahhh, what does the NFL know?!

 

[JosiahLee]

They are a bit overrated
They had a really easy schedule, same for the Cowboys

Yeah I think they are starting to play good football and Hurts is really settling in as a starting qb in this league. I think they would be dangerous for a first rd upset.