Value of Things: Texans day of reckoning

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It started innocently enough. Landy Locker asked whether Nick Caley could grow as a play caller and whether he would get an opportunity to do that. DeMeco Ryans gave a seemingly innocuous response that is actually very telling. For much of the season, he gave full throated defenses of Caley as an offensive coordinator. In this go around he simply gave the boilerplate response that all of the coaches would be evaluated and they would come to decisions on them later.

No single person in the building has had more scrutiny than Nick Caley. Those of us here at BRB have certainly had our say and I might be chief among those. However, asking the Caley question is putting the cart before the horse. There is a much larger question that needs to be asked before they get there and they only have a matter of days and not weeks and months.

Is C.J. Stroud the quarterback to lead this team to a championship?​

It’s a basic question, but it is probably the most difficult one this organization has faced in its history. What is more than certain that THIS version of Stroud is not it. Stroud is not a game manager. If you look at his career at Ohio State and in his rookie season, Stroud made waves as a gunslinger. The numbers pop off the charts and we could certainly roll tape of his performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during his rookie season for more proof that.

Is that version of Stroud still in there and can it be unlocked? Those are hard questions to answer and no one outside the building can answer it. What we can say is that Nick Caley and his offense is not the offense that is going to do that. However, it is not as simple as firing Caley and bringing in someone else. There are layers of questions that need to be answered.

Does DeMeco want to commit to that kind of offense?​

There are two very defensible positions here. Either Ryans wants to run a ball control offense and allow his defense to win football games or he can commit to getting the best version of Stroud and this offense. Both of those are viable options. The Texans won ten consecutive games playing ball control and conservative offense. It should be noted that Caley succeeded at the basic tenets of this system. The Texans turned it over fewer times during the regular season than any team in the NFL. They cut their sacks in half from the previous season. They ended up typing for the franchise record for wins in a season.

Yet, there is a reason why Stroud looked fantastic in some games and shaky in others. In some games, he seemed to play within the system and when he did it was a thing of beauty. In other games he held onto the ball too long because he was constantly looking for the big play. It is fair to ask whether that will always be a part of his game. It is just one man’s opinion, but I think that will always be who Stroud is.

The other option is to work an offense around who Stroud is. That has to include not only his programming to go for the big play, but also other strengths and weaknesses he brings to the table. Caley’s offense supposedly called on Stroud to make more calls at the line of scrimmage. He was supposed to change protections and possibly the plays themselves. Either Caley was late in calling plays in or Stroud struggled to get them communicated. Either way, a simpler system that calls for fewer decisions would be best.

The Money Issue​

The Texans don’t have to make a decision on Stroud for another year, but there are already reports of possible negotiations. A large part of the question is whether Stroud is capable of leading a flawed roster to a championship. Is flawed a strong term? Yes, but all rosters with expensive quarterbacks are flawed. The salary cap prevents you from spending the kind of money you want to spend on every position group. Something has to give.

Different organizations handle that in different ways. Some teams load up on the offensive side of the ball and hope for the best on defense. The Cowboys and Bengals are examples here. Other teams cut back around the quarterback at wide receiver, the offensive line, or in the running back room. Teams like the Chiefs, Bills, and Chargers have done that. Obviously, all of those options bring mixed results that largely depend on how well the team can hit on middle round draft choices and whether the quarterback can elevate the play of those around him.

What is plain is that it is very difficult to run an effective ball control offense unless you can spend on all the elements. The Texans are playing a shell game where they saved on the offensive line and in the running back room. Playing more ball control means committing more to those positions. That can be through the draft, but it also could be through free agency. It will be hard to pay those guys AND Stroud in the same offseason. This doesn’t even mention paying Will Anderson as well.

Prediction?​

As I write this, I don’t know where the Texans are going to land on these issues. I suspect we won’t know until the end of the week on Caley and we might never know on Stroud until he either gets his contract extension or he gets a ticket out of town. The good news is that the status quo probably has some positive inertia in its favor. Nick Caley will get better as a play caller in year two. Stroud will get slightly better in his system in year two. So, I could see some wisdom in kicking the can down the road.

The ultimate question is whether incremental improvement is enough. I could see yourself talking yourself into it. Take away the pick six and it is a one score game. Make the game even on turnovers and you are still allowing for two Stroud picks and the Marks fumble. That might have been enough to change the whole game. Yet, we are forgetting that every game and every season is its own animal. The Texans defense may never be this good again. That is just something we have to accept. So, incremental improvement might not be enough to get them over the top. These are just some of the many considerations. It will be interesting to see where the Texans land.

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