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Yuma

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Remember when there weren't enough homes for sale for the amount of buyers shopping?
I heard we aren't even back to traditional wait times in the industry yet. Houses still selling fast, just not in the one day listings with multiple offers that was crazy market. Used to be houses were on the market for 6-9 months to sell. I don't see ANY of that happening right now. I think for younger folk, who have been in the crazy crash market then followed by a white hot market, these prices do seem high. In my life 2-3% interest rates are a once in a lifetime thing. Prices from the crash in 2007/2008 made houses super low. After the pandemic everyone wanted their own space, and things exploded! Prior to those two crazy swings, RE was a steady slow climb, with occasional dips. I would hate to advise someone in PHX that a housing crash is coming, when demand is still high for both rentals and housing, while our job market keeps expanding and people keep moving to PHX area.
 

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I heard we aren't even back to traditional wait times in the industry yet. Houses still selling fast, just not in the one day listings with multiple offers that was crazy market. Used to be houses were on the market for 6-9 months to sell. I don't see ANY of that happening right now. I think for younger folk, who have been in the crazy crash market then followed by a white hot market, these prices do seem high. In my life 2-3% interest rates are a once in a lifetime thing. Prices from the crash in 2007/2008 made houses super low. After the pandemic everyone wanted their own space, and things exploded! Prior to those two crazy swings, RE was a steady slow climb, with occasional dips. I would hate to advise someone in PHX that a housing crash is coming, when demand is still high for both rentals and housing, while our job market keeps expanding and people keep moving to PHX area.
My old house has been on the market since march
 

BigRedRage

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Every possible singal that can be seen for housing prices to dip is there.

Every month automated appraisals are coming in lower.

Every month rates are going higher, slowing down the pace of home sales.

I 100% would advise people that prices are coming down. If you're a seller.....speed is key. If you're a buyer, patience is key for now.

It's all clear and obvious and not worth really discussing the alternative at this point. The only thing that would stop it is a radical shift away from recession and I don't see that happening.
 

dscher

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Every possible singal that can be seen for housing prices to dip is there.

Every month automated appraisals are coming in lower.

Every month rates are going higher, slowing down the pace of home sales.

I 100% would advise people that prices are coming down. If you're a seller.....speed is key. If you're a buyer, patience is key for now.

It's all clear and obvious and not worth really discussing the alternative at this point. The only thing that would stop it is a radical shift away from recession and I don't see that happening.
The Fed has been pinned in a corner since last year. There is no soft landing or escape plan IMO. Just have to wait for the demand destruction they want.
 

Yuma

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My old house has been on the market since march
I am sorry to hear that. I know when the big housing crash happened, I told some customers to cut their asking price to get them to be the lowest in their neighborhoods. They refused. They got other realtors that would list for what they wanted. They followed behind the market all the way down. So instead of losing $10K like I was asking they lost $80-$100K, or even more. I think we are in a downward market. Sometimes you have to get in front of the reductions.

I don't know your property. You have to ask why it isn't selling. Sometimes it has to be fixed up, price lowered, etc. I would go to some open houses in your area, get comp price lists from realtors, Zillow, whatever. You have to be the best value in your area if you want to sell fast.
 

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I am sorry to hear that. I know when the big housing crash happened, I told some customers to cut their asking price to get them to be the lowest in their neighborhoods. They refused. They got other realtors that would list for what they wanted. They followed behind the market all the way down. So instead of losing $10K like I was asking they lost $80-$100K, or even more. I think we are in a downward market. Sometimes you have to get in front of the reductions.

I don't know your property. You have to ask why it isn't selling. Sometimes it has to be fixed up, price lowered, etc. I would go to some open houses in your area, get comp price lists from realtors, Zillow, whatever. You have to be the best value in your area if you want to sell fast.
He sold it to Zillow and they can't sell it.

I told him to buy it back on the discount.
 

Yuma

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He sold it to Zillow and they can't sell it.

I told him to buy it back on the discount.
I know those investment companies have been bleeding. Several Realtors have told me investment companies got stuck with lots of properties priced at the top of the market. I am assuming they thought the market was going to keep going up?
 

jf-08

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I know those investment companies have been bleeding. Several Realtors have told me investment companies got stuck with lots of properties priced at the top of the market. I am assuming they thought the market was going to keep going up?
Yep. And I have no sympathy for them. They are part of the reason that the prices blew out of control.
 

Yuma

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Yep. And I have no sympathy for them. They are part of the reason that the prices blew out of control.
We bought our house from Open Door. I would NEVER buy from a company like that again. They may be good to sell to, but as a buyer, they suck! Not only would they not do repairs, they took fixtures, etc., out of our house before final walk through, and when we noted it, they just said, do you want the house or not?
 

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I know those investment companies have been bleeding. Several Realtors have told me investment companies got stuck with lots of properties priced at the top of the market. I am assuming they thought the market was going to keep going up?

Car dealerships are in the same boat they were paying ridiculous prices for used vehicles and selling them for the same prices as new ones now there stuck

I’m just waiting for the clearance sale
 

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So where's the best place for an aspiring snowbird to look for Dec-February housing. most likely rental?

Asking for a friend who is getting sick of freezing his arse up off up north. ;)
 
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Dback Jon

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So where's the best place for an aspiring snowbird to look for Dec-February housing. most likely rental?

Asking for a friend who is getting sick of freezing his arse up off up north. ;)
Depends on price point and what you want to do while here.
 

82CardsGrad

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So where's the best place for an aspiring snowbird to look for Dec-February housing. most likely rental?

Asking for a friend who is getting sick of freezing his arse up off up north. ;)
That is PRIME-TIME here in the valley. We are flooded with temporary stays/vacationers during the winter months, which sucks-up inventory while driving up prices. Most people secure housing during this time, way in advance!
But like Jon says...it would be important for you to identify a price-range, preferred location (do you want to be more remote, or closer to some action)... Good luck.
 

Absolute Zero

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That is PRIME-TIME here in the valley. We are flooded with temporary stays/vacationers during the winter months, which sucks-up inventory while driving up prices. Most people secure housing during this time, way in advance!
But like Jon says...it would be important for you to identify a price-range, preferred location (do you want to be more remote, or closer to some action)... Good luck.


Thanks, probably looking at next winter, but its this Feb. is tempting. Airbnb is ridiculous, but I found a snowbird site that isn't too bad!
 

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I am sorry to hear that. I know when the big housing crash happened, I told some customers to cut their asking price to get them to be the lowest in their neighborhoods. They refused. They got other realtors that would list for what they wanted. They followed behind the market all the way down. So instead of losing $10K like I was asking they lost $80-$100K, or even more. I think we are in a downward market. Sometimes you have to get in front of the reductions.

I don't know your property. You have to ask why it isn't selling. Sometimes it has to be fixed up, price lowered, etc. I would go to some open houses in your area, get comp price lists from realtors, Zillow, whatever. You have to be the best value in your area if you want to sell fast.
This.... I do not get people that do not get this mechanism. Get in front of the market
 
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Dback Jon

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This is only an issue if they want to sell or refinance. Just like in 2008. If you are living/not moving, it doesn't really affect you, just like when housing prices hit the peak this summer, didn't affect me either way.

I know a lot of people that were upside down in 2008, but ended up selling for big profits later (or are still in the now right-side up house.
 

dscher

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This is only an issue if they want to sell or refinance. Just like in 2008. If you are living/not moving, it doesn't really affect you, just like when housing prices hit the peak this summer, didn't affect me either way.

I know a lot of people that were upside down in 2008, but ended up selling for big profits later (or are still in the now right-side up house.
Yes..but this also only works if you think we are at the bottom or near bottom of the housing market crash. If we have quite a ways to go with any semblance of the marking down of home prices along with an economy that the fed wants to massively slow to get inflation down (ie. likely big unemployment spikes) then it's a recipe for disaster for the prospective homebuyer, especially younger generations. IMO.
 
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Yes..but this also only works if you think we are at the bottom or near bottom of the housing market crash. If we have quite a ways to go with any semblance of the marking down of home prices along with an economy that the fed wants to massively slow to get inflation down (ie. likely big unemployment spikes) then it's a recipe for disaster for the prospective homebuyer, especially younger generations. IMO.
This is where I hope the Fed temporizes, and the Congress can work together for the good of the country.

Inflation is slowing down already. Increasing the labor pool (Immigration) would be a huge help.


Prices still have a ways to go down, but again, the housing prices don't affect me right now - since I am not planning on buying/selling/refinancing.
 

dscher

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This is where I hope the Fed temporizes, and the Congress can work together for the good of the country.
This would be nice. But at the end of the day if the fed still has a 2 percent target inflation rate, we still have a long ways to go to disinflate or potentially deflate. Hyper inflation usually leads to hyper deflation. This is why a soft landing is darn near impossible IMHO.
 
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