Updated Big 12 football power rankings, per ESPN's initial 2026 SP+

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ESPN's college football analytics guru, Bill Connelly, released his first SP+ rankings for the upcoming 2026 college football season on Friday.

The metric is one of the go-to predictive measures heading into the college football season. Like any metric, it will change when real data (games) takes place. Still, SP+ is the industry standard for judging team quality and projecting future performance. Here is how Connelly explains his process:

As a reminder, SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking. Along those same lines, these projections aren't intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the season. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather.

The Big 12 landscape gained further clarity with the release of the SP+ and Connelly's updated returning production earlier this week. In 2025, Texas Tech was the lone conference representative in the College Football Playoff while BYU and Utah were the clear next-best teams. Arizona and Houston surprised with a nine and ten-win season, respectively. We can now head back to the drawing board to project which teams are this year's breakout candidates and who might take a step back.

Friday's SP+ release means we are one step closer to the start of the next college football season, with spring games right around the corner. Here is how the metric projects the Big 12, along with each team's returning production percentage:

16. West Virginia Mountaineers​

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SP+ Rating: 0.8 (No. 66 overall)

• Offensive Rating: 26.3 (No. 62)
• Defensive Rating: 25.6 (No. 66)

Returning Production: 52% (No. 66 overall)

The Mountaineers enter 2026 still searching for direction as they try to establish a new identity under second-year head coach Rich Rodriguez. WVU needs a lot of younger pieces to take that next step for a quicker rebuild.

15. Colorado Buffaloes​

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SP+ Rating: 0.9 (No. 65 overall)

• Offensive Rating: 26.3 (No. 64)
• Defensive Rating: 24.9 (No. 57)

Returning Production: 55% (No. 55 overall)

Colorado once again enters a season under Deion Sanders as one of the conference's biggest wild cards. 3-9 and 8-4 are both on the table. With a new roster builder strategy in place, perhaps the Buffs are ready to put together a truly complete team.

14. Iowa State Cyclones​

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SP+ Rating: 1.0 (No. 64 overall)

• Offensive Rating: 22.9 (No. 94)
• Defensive Rating: 22.4 (No. 42)

Returning Production: 45% (No. 102 overall)

There is a whole lot of new in Ames, and a rebuild is certainly in the works for new head coach Jimmy Rogers. No one really knows what to expect from the Cyclones in 2026, but a season near the top of the Big 12 is far-fetched.

13. UCF Knights​

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SP+ Rating: 2.3 (No. 60 overall)

• Offensive Rating: 24.5 (No. 79)
• Defensive Rating: 22.1 (No. 41)

Returning Production: 61% (No. 29 overall)

The Knights have the pieces in place to make a move, particularly if their offense finds consistency. With a solid foundation returning, UCF could develop into a dangerous mid-tier team that no contender wants to face.

12. Kansas Jayhawks​

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SP+ Rating: 3.7 (No. 57 overall)

• Offensive Rating: 29.0 (No. 51)
• Defensive Rating: 25.9 (No. 70)

Returning Production: 58% (No. 39 overall)

Kansas seems allergic to taking that next step into consistent Big 12 contention, instead opting to rest happily at either 6-6 or 7-5. With a top-60 offense and nearly 60% returning production, Kansas has some continuity to build on. However, a defense ranked 70th nationally could hold them back from making a significant jump.

11. Baylor Bears​

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SP+ Rating: 4.5 (No. 51 overall)

• Offensive Rating: 32.2 (No. 23)
• Defensive Rating: 28.3 (No. 87)

Returning Production: 53% (No. 61 overall)

Baylor's offense should be one to watch with DJ Lagway under center, but its defense looks shaky at best. The Bears' season hinges on whether Dave Aranda can get his defense to make the meaningful strides it could not make last year.

10. Cincinnati Bearcats​

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SP+ Rating: 4.5 (No. 50 overall)

• Offensive Rating: 29.6 (No. 46)
• Defensive Rating: 25.4 (No. 65)

Returning Production: 57% (No. 50 overall)

Cincinnati should be similar to last season, but without a star quarterback after Brendan Sorsby left for Texas Tech. Still, they should be a tough opponent that pushes for bowl eligibility.

9. Arizona State Sun Devils​

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SP+ Rating: 6.4 (No. 42 overall)

• Offensive Rating: 28.2 (No. 57)
• Defensive Rating: 21.2 (No. 37)

Returning Production: 51% (No. 70 overall)

The high-flying ASU offense led by Cam Skattebo, Sam Leavitt, and Jordyn Tyson is a thing of the past. Now the Sun Devils are led by a strong defensive unit, but how far the team will go will be determined by internal growth.

8. Oklahoma State Cowboys​

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SP+ Rating: 7.1 (No. 38 overall)

• Offensive Rating: 30.0 (No. 42)
• Defensive Rating: 23.4 (No. 52)

Returning Production: 58% (No. 42 overall)

Expect Oklahoma State to have the Big 12's most significant turnaround after Eric Morris brought nearly his entire North Texas roster with him to Stillwater. Quarterback Drew Mestamaker has Heisman potential and could push the Pokes into CFP discussions.

7. Houston Cougars​

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SP+ Rating: 8.2 (No. 36 overall)

• Offensive Rating: 31.2 (No. 30)
• Defensive Rating: 22.8 (No. 45)

Returning Production: 65% (No. 17 overall)

Houston looks like one of the conference's more intriguing teams after a strong 2025 and bringing back 65% of its production. As a top-30 offense, the Cougars have the tools to remain competitive, plus a solid defense adds to their profile, making them a legitimate contender to stay in the Big 12's upper tier.

6. TCU Horned Frogs​

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SP+ Rating: 9.1 (No. 34 overall)

• Offensive Rating: 31.3 (No. 31)
• Defensive Rating: 21.9 (No. 40)

Returning Production: 51% (No. 69 overall)

Harvard transfer Jaden Craig is the key to TCU's season. Can he make the jump from Ivy League football to the Big 12? He'll need to mesh with plenty of new faces if the Horned Frogs want to succeed.

5. Arizona Wildcats​

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SP+ Rating: 10.2 (No. 30 overall)

• Offensive Rating: 31.5 (No. 29)
• Defensive Rating: 20.8 (No. 33)

Returning Production: 60% (No. 32 overall)

Arizona should be one of the Big 12's top teams in 2026, with quarterback Noah Fifita back for his fifth and final season. Both the Wildcats' offense and defense rank in the top 35 nationally, giving Arizona one of the more balanced profiles in the conference, if not nationally. They appear well-positioned to build on last season's success.

4. Kansas State Wildcats​

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SP+ Rating: 10.4 (No. 29 overall)

• Offensive Rating: 33.1 (No. 17)
• Defensive Rating: 23.0 (No. 49)

Returning Production: 58% (No. 38 overall)

K-State once again looks like a serious contender. Their physical style and offensive firepower give them a high ceiling. A slightly better defense, and no one should be surprised to see them in the title game come December.

3. Utah Utes​

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SP+ Rating: 11.9 (No. 25 overall)

• Offensive Rating: 33.0 (No. 18)
• Defensive Rating: 21.1 (No. 34)

Returning Production: 55% (No. 54 overall)

The departure of Kyle Whittingham to Michigan will sting Utah, even if Margan Scalley was waiting in the wings. You typically don't lose a legendary coach and get better. Still, even a couple of fewer wins should not take Utah out of conference contention.

2. BYU Cougars​

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SP+ Rating: 15.5 (No. 18 overall)

• Offensive Rating: 33.3 (No. 16)
• Defensive Rating: 18.1 (No. 20)

Returning Production: 64% (No. 18 overall)

With so many returning starters, including at quarterback and running back, BYU has the look of a team ready to contend for both a conference title and a playoff spot. The challenge will be sustaining that level across a full schedule.

1. Texas Tech Red Raiders​

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SP+ Rating: 23.1 (No. 7 overall)

• Offensive Rating: 37.6 (No. 8)
• Defensive Rating: 14.7 (No. 11)

Returning Production: 65% (No. 12 overall)

Texas Tech hopes to be in the national title conversation this year and is far and away the top Big 12 program. It comes as no surprise to see the Red Raiders lead SP+ after a College Football Playoff berth and conference title in 2025.

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This article originally appeared on Buffaloes Wire: Big 12 football 2026 power rankings per ESPN SP+ rating

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