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UFC 329 is live this Saturday (July 11, 2026) from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV and streamed exclusively on Paramount+ (watch here). The main event needs little introduction. It’s Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway 2, a rematch thirteen years in the making (but at Welterweight, not Featherweight). This is our first time seeing McGregor since 2021, but the lead up to this one has felt very different from past McGregor fight weeks.
Saturday’s co-main is Benoit Saint Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett in the Lightweight division. Rounding out the stacked main card is Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista, Bandon Royval vs. Lone’er Kavanagh and King Green vs. Terrance McKinney.
The “Prelims” are pretty stacked, too. They are headlined by Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov. There’s also Luke Rileyvs. Kai Kamaka III, Cody Garbrandt vs. Adrian Yanez and the debut of Gable Steveson. He fights Elisha Ellison.
The early “Prelims” are headlined by Tracy Cortez vs. Wang Cong. There’s also Damian Pinas vs. Cesar Almeida down there.
As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:
UFC 329 Main Card Money Line Odds
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Conor McGregor (+185) vs. Max Holloway (-225)
McGregor is back on Saturday night. The soon-to-be 38-year-old returns after a five-year absence from MMA. It’s now ten years since McGregor beat Eddie Alvarez to become the champ-champ in a moment that suggested he might become a dominating force in the sport. The Mayweather fight followed, though, then sparring UFC fights between arrests and other controversies. His most recent fights were two losses to Dustin Poirier, both by stoppage. The most recent featured a badly broken leg and ended with McGregor possibly threatening to kill Poirier’s family in their sleep. Lovely.
Few have a bad word to say about Max Holloway. The Hawaiian remains one of the most beloved figures in the sport thanks to his exciting style, ability to get wins, and seemingly normal/likeable personality outside of the cage. Holloway is 34 and last fought in March. That’s when Charles Oliveira broke all the BMF rules and grounded Holloway for five rounds. Before that, Holloway won the so-called BMF title by beating Poirier in Poirier’s retirement fight.
Obviously I’m picking Holloway here. I don’t care that this is Welterweight. I don’t care that McGregor won the first fight. I don’t care that McGregor once had prodigious speed and power in his hands. He’s been gone five years. And even five years ago, he looked like a shell of the Featherweight phenom that shocked the world.
I feel like McGregor got to his peak (the Alvarez fight) thanks to his desire. He wanted to be the biggest star in combat sports, and he got there. Once he achieved that, he hasn’t had the same kind of motivation. His motivation this time around, I believe, is to fight out his UFC contract and then go elsewhere to find the biggest spectacle fights he can.
I don’t think he’s been training seriously here. I don’t think he has a room of coaches and training partners who can push him and tell him what he doesn’t want to hear. And I don’t think he has the gas tank to keep up with Holloway.
There are question marks when it comes to Holloway moving up in weight. He doesn’t have a great track record of that. But I won’t let that cancel out all my reservations about McGregor. I think we’re going to see a repeat of the Poirier fights, with Holloway being the first to the punch and McGregor slowing down as soon as he gets tagged a few times.
I don’t have any questions about Holloway’s mindset and preparations. I think his goal has always been just to win the next fight in front of him. And I think that’s what he’s going to do on Saturday.
I’m just taking the moneyline here. I have it listed at -225, but it’s getting longer by the minute. By fight night, a lot of folks will have convinced themselves that McGregor has a chance, and I might get this at something like -175.
I think Holloway likely gets a TKO somewhere in the third or fourth round because I really don’t think a 38-year-old McGregor has the cardio to go long here. Holloway by KO/TKO is -125 right now.
The round total is 2.5 rounds. That’s a really good line. I think this fight ends really close to that. That makes me want to stay away.
Best bet: Max Holloway moneyline (-225)
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Benoit Saint Denis (-155) vs. Paddy Pimblett (+130)
Saint Denis has looked great ever since that beating Renato Moicano gave him in Paris in 2024. He’s 4-0 since then with all finishes. That run includes a masterful performance over the very dangerous Mauricio Ruffy (see it here), a 16-second KO over Beneil Dariush (see it here), and a beatdown of Dan Hooker in January.
Pimblett helped open up the Paramount+ era in the year’s first main event. That saw him lose a unanimous decision to Justin Gaethje for the interim Lightweight title (and a ticket to the White House). That was Pimblett’s first loss since getting beaten by Soren Bak in Cage Warriors in 2018. Of course, many think he deserved to lose his decision over Jared Gordon in 2022. To set up his title fight, Pimblett ran through Tony Ferguson, King Green, and Michael Chandler.
Saint Denis has looked great in his last few fights, with both his grappling and his hands. In addition to looking like the total package, he’s looked like a title contender, too.
Pimblett looked tough and rugged in his loss to Gaethje, but his skills haven’t seemed to have taken much of a leap forward. He wasn’t able to establish any grappling with Gaethje and was left having to brawl with him (the greatest brawler in the sport right now).
I’m not sure where Pimblett wants this fight to go. And I’m not sure he has the advantage either standing or grappling with Saint Denis. Because of this, I’m pretty much with the oddsmakers here in thinking Saint Denis is going to win this.
I was actually surprised to see that Saint Denis is actually eleven months younger than Pimblett. I thought Saint Denis was older. I also thought Pimblett was longer than Saint Denis, but they have the same reach.
All this information is making me even more confident in Saint Denis on Saturday night. I think his boxing and grappling are just both too technical for Pimblett. Pimblett might put in a spirited performance here and have his moments, but I think Saint Denis will have the bigger moments. The Frenchman is the man I feel is most likely to land a huge punch or slap on a slick submission. So I have to pick him.
Best bet: Benoit Saint Denis moneyline (-155)
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Cory Sandhagen (-155) vs. Mario Bautista (+130)
Sandhagen returns to action after a pretty long stint on the sidelines. His last fight was in October, when he lost against Merab Dvalishvili for the Bantamweight title. He earned that with a win over Deiveson Figueiredo. Before that win he dropped a decision to Umar Nurmagomedov.
Bautista’s last loss was to Nurmagomedov. But it’s sandwiched between a beautiful submission over Vinicius Oliveira in February (see it here) and a drubbing over Patchy Mix.
I think this is a really tough fight to call. Sandhagen has been the best “other guy” at Bantamweight for a while now. But Bautista has recently really raised his level. He’s improved more than Sandhagen has in the last few years, but has he improved to a level beyond where Sandhagen is at right now? That’s hard to know until they fight.
My impression is that Sandhagen will have the striking edge in this one, but Bautista will have the wrestling and grappling edge. Those edges will be slight, in both departments, though. Both these guys are just so well rounded.
Bautista’s last fight, against Oliveira, feels like a fantastic warm-up for a Sandhagen fight. He took Oliveira down five times in that fight (which lasted less than two rounds). That’s the most takedowns he’s ever landed in a fight. I think that might be an omen of what’s to come here.
Sandhagen was taken down twenty times by Dvalishvili. Big deal, though. Dvalishvili does that to everyone and Bautista is not that level of wrestler. Sandhagen was taken down multiple times by Deiveson Figureido and Song Yadong, though. Figueiredo has a career takedown average of 34 percent. Song’s is 41 percent. Sandhagen was taken down by Rob Font, too. Font’s accuracy is just 29 percent.
Figueiredo, Song and Font all took Sandhagen down at a rate higher than their career averages. Figueirdo went 2-5 on takedowns (40%), Song went 2-2 (100%) and Font went 1-2 (50%).
Bautista is a career 38 percent takedown artist, though he went 5-7 (71%) against Oliveira.
I think Bautista’s improvement, paired with Sandhagen’s historic leaky takedown defense means Bautista might have enough of an edge to win this.
Best bet: Mario Bautista moneyline (+130)
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Brandon Royval (+185) vs. Lone’er Kavanagh (-235)
Royval is coming off a first-round TKO loss to Manel Kape in December (see it here). That followed his unanimous decision loss to Joshua Van, in what was essentially a number one contender bout. Before that, he took a really hard-fought win over Tatsuro Taira. At 33, he’s trying to not get lost in the shuffle as young Flyweights try to take over the division.
Kavanagh is one of those youngsters. He announced himself on the scene with a dominating performance over Brandon Moreno in Mexico City this February. That win saw him rebound from a shock KO loss to Charles Johnson in the previous fight. Kavanagh is now 3-1 in the UFC.
I was pretty shocked at how badly, and quickly, Royval lost to Kape. I was worried that he had totally fallen off. However, given how Kape has looked, I think we can chalk that up to Kape’s striking being very special at Flyweight (as Van might soon find out).
Kavanagh was great against Moreno, but it might still be too soon to see how good he truly is. The loss to Johnson is concerning, and Jose Ochoa had some moments against him when they fought in 2024. Even so, Kavanagh’s performance against Moreno does deserve a lot of respect, and the fact he did that on short notice, coming off a loss and in Mexico City, says a lot about Kavanagh’s character.
He clearly has a lot of momentum coming into this one, against someone coming off two losses. I think Kavanagh takes this one, and it looks somewhat similar to the Moreno fight. I’m not alone in this thinking, though. To avoid those short favorite odds, I’ll take Kavanagh by decision. He’s yet to finish anyone in the UFC (excluding his Contender Series fight), and Royval is ultra tough (when you don’t hit as hard as Manel Kape).
Best bet: Lone’er Kavanagh by decision (+140)
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King Green (+140) vs. Terrance McKinney (-166)
Green, who turned 40 a few months ago, has been very active lately. This is already his third fight of the year. In May he submitted Jeremy Stephens (see it here), and in February he TKO’d Daniel Zellhuber (see it here). He’s now on a three-fight winning streak.
The way McKinney fights, he could do it every night. T-Wrecks scored another lightning-fast win in March, beating Kyle Nelson in 24 seconds (see it here). That would be special for anyone else, but McKinney’s finished fights (or been finished) in less than a minute four times in the UFC. He went 2-1 in 2025, beating Viacheslav Borshchev and Damir Hadzovic and losing to Chris Duncan.
McKinney fights are always a lot of fun. The matchmakers have given him a stiff challenge here, though. I don’t think McKinney knows how to fight any other way, so I doubt we’ll see him respect Green’s hands and want to play things cautiously. It feels like he’s going to do what he always does: throw himself forward immediately and look for the quickest way to win.
The question is whether Green can handle that pressure and catch McKinney before he gets caught. If we’re talking just striking, then I think there’s a fifty-fifty chance for both guys to land a big KO early (remember when Green finished Grant Dawson in 30 seconds?).
Unlike Green, though, McKinney is not just a striker. And I think that’s what gives McKinney the edge here. McKinney has great submissions, which he deploys like he deploys his striking, at a furious breakneck speed. When McKinney gets close to people, he’s great at climbing them or jumping onto them for submissions.
The fact that I think McKinney will be bringing more weapons to this gunfight makes me want to side with him here.
Best bet: Terrance McKinney moneyline (-166)
UFC 329 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds
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Nikita Krylov (+164) vs. Robert Whittaker (-198)
UFC 329 marks the Light Heavyweight debut of former Middleweight champ Robert Whittaker (who started his UFC career off at Welterweight). He moves up after losses to Khamzat Chimaev (by face crank — see it here) and Reinier de Ridder (by split decision). It’s been about a year since that RDR fight and over two years since Whittaker’s last win, a quick finish over Ikram Aliskerov (see it here).
Krylov fought in January. That’s when he put down the streaking Modestas Bukauskas with a first round TKO (see it here). That took his UFC record to 12-9. Before that win he had back-to-back stoppage losses to Bogdan Guskov and Dominick Reyes. This is Krylov’s third fight since a two year hiatus.
I’m not sure Whittaker deserves to be as big a favorite as he is here. That’s not because I don’t think he’s an excellent fighter. It’s just because the move up from Middleweight to Light Heavyweight is a pretty big jump. Israel Adesanya lost when he went up to 205 lbs. And even Alex Pereira struggled in his debut up a weight (despite being a more natural fit there). Both those men struggled against Jan Blachowicz, though, who is better than Nikita Krylov.
Even so, I think Krylov is a dangerous man to use for an experiment like this — given his finishing power in both striking and grappling. And I’m concerned that Whittaker doesn’t have enough size for this division. Both Adesanya and Pereira are 6’4” with 80 inch reaches, though. Whittaker is 6’ even with a 73 inch reach.
Basically, I need to see Whittaker at this new weight before feeling confident one way or another.
Given Krylov’s track record as a finisher (and someone who gets finished a lot), I’m reasonably confident this one doesn’t go to the judges. Whittaker also has more losses by stoppage than he does by decision.
Best bet: Fight to go the distance – No (-160)
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Gable Steveson (-3200) vs. Elisha Ellison (+1400)
Steveson is shaping up to be the biggest favorite in UFC history on Saturday. The former stud wrestler and Olympian is 3-0 in MMA having tried out in both the NFL and WWE before landing here. Around those three MMA fights, he’s also had a cup of coffee in RAF and Dirty Boxing. All his MMA wins have been first round finishes.
Ellison made his UFC debut last September. That saw him finished in the first round by Brando Pericic. He’s 29 and 5-2.
I’m not going spend too much on this one. UFC are giving Steveson a lay-up here. For value’s sake, I’ll take the over hoping there’s some kind of Octagon jitters.
Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (+390)
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Cory Garbrandt (+310) vs. Adrian Yanez (-395)
Former UFC Bantamweight champion Garbrandt had a horrible time in his last fight. He beat Xiao Long by decision, but had to endure a vomit-inducing groin shot along the way. That was Garbrandt’s first win since a KO over Brian Kelleher in 2023. In between those fights, he was a distant second best to Deiveson Figueiredo and then Raoni Barcelos.
Yanez fought to a majority draw with Ricky Simon in March. Those scores happened thanks to Yanez almost finishing Simon in the third round, thus earning some 10-8 scores. Simon looked like he was still rocked when the scores were being read out. Most onlookers, including myself, felt like Yanez should have been ruled the outright winner of the fight, though.
I’m a little wary of Yanez being such a big favorite here. He’s been very inconsistent in the UFC (he’s lost three of his past six bouts). If he can replicate the striking we saw against Simon, then there’s a good chance he (and his five-inch reach advantage) can hurt Garbrandt.
I’m not willing to bet on Garbrandt, either, since his Renan Barao-like decline has put a big ‘betters beware’ label on him.
The line for this one is 1.5 rounds. I’ll go with the over, since I have doubts about both guys in this fight.
Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-200)
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Luke Riley (-310) vs. Kai Kamaka III (+250)
Riley is 2-0 in UFC now after taking a pretty clear decision over Michael Aswell Jr. in March. He debuted with UFC with a second round finish over Bogdan Grad (see it here). Just like his teammate Paddy Pimblett, Riley came up through the Cage Warriors ranks. He’s 13-0 now and might be able to break out of Pimblett’s shadow if he gets another big win here.
Kamaka returned to UFC after a three year absence in April. He won his return fight, over Dakota Hope, by split decision. His original UFC run saw him go 1-2-1. After being cut he fought in Bellator and PFL, facing pretty decent opposition (Henry Corales, Brendan Loughrane).
Kamaka might have a path to winning this if he tries to use some wrestling here. It’s not his strong suit, but he’s a lot better at that than Riley is (who has just a 37 percent takedown defense through two UFC appearances). Is Kamaka going to do that, though? Or is he the kind of guy who will want to brawl with this kid to show he’s the better puncher.
If he does that, then I feel like Riley is going to eventually wear him down with his volume. Riley landed 100 significant strikes on Aswell Jr., with about a third of those shots going to the body.
I have a feeling ‘Da Fightin’ Hawaiian’ might opt for the brawl here. I don’t think that’s a good idea, but I also don’t think Riley stops Kamaka. Kamaka has only two TKO losses on his career. One of those was an arm injury and the other was ground and pound from Jonathan Pearce. That finish was due to Kamaka being flattened out on his front under Pearce’s heavy top game and couldn’t defend the punches to the side of his head, he wasn’t rocked in that fight.
I think he manages to stay in there against Riley (especially if he takes him down a little).
Best bet: Fight to go the distance – Yes (-175)
UFC 329 Early ‘Prelims’
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Tracy Cortez (-110) vs. Wang Cong (-110)
Cortez couldn’t keep up with Erin Blanchfield in her last fight. She was taken down and submitted in the second round there (see it here). That happened back in November. Before that she looked great in overwhelming Viviane Araujo, with both her striking and wrestling, to take a decision. That fight happened after a year long hiatus, stemming from her short notice defeat to Rose Namajunas in her debut main event.
Wang won her third straight bout in February, scoring a decision over Eduarda Moura. She came in a little heavy for that one, though. Wang knocked Victoria Leonardo out cold in her UFC debut (see it here) back in 2024. That made lots of us think Wang hits like a truck. With no finishes since, then, though, that KO is starting to look like it said more about Leonardo (five career KO/TKO losses) than Wang.
This is an interesting match-up. Wang looked like a star in her debut, but she’s certainly reduced to the mean since then. She was dominated by Moura in the second round of her fight and could have lost that had Moura not gassed out. Cortez is her biggest test to date and I think she’s going to be a really tough fight for her.
Cortez’s wrestling and top game will be very important in this fight. Wang is still pretty raw at anything other than striking. In UFC Cortez has only ever lost to Blanchfield and Namajunas. She may get attention for reasons other than her fighting, but I think she’s a good fighter and I think she’s better equipped to avoid Wang’s punches than Wang is at avoiding her takedowns.
Best bet: Tracy Cortez moneyline (-110)
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Damian Pinas (-218) vs. Cesar Almeida (+180)
Pinas looked every bit the blue chip prospect when he took apart Wes Schultz in his post Contender Series debut. He hurt Schultz with every shot he landed and ended things at the 2:30 mark in the first round (see it here). That improved his record to 9-1. His only loss is a DQ for an illegal kick in 2024.
Almeida dropped to 3-2 in UFC after getting out-worked by Cezary Oleksiejczuk in December. Before that obliterated Abdul Razak Alhassan with a first round KO (see it here). That’s the kind of finish we’d been hoping to see from the former GLORY kickboxer.
This match-making tells us the UFC doesn’t really care about what they have in Almeida. The promotion seems to like pushing GLORY vets, but Almeida seems to have just not done enough to excite them. As he closes in on turning 40, he’s got a 24 year old killer to deal with.
Pinas has freakish length (79 inches) and he knows what to do with it. He’s a very technical striker, as you’d hope to see out of Nova Uniao. He throws punches straight down the middle and so far people have just crumbled from his power.
Almeida is a KO artist himself, but I think the age factor is a big deal in this one. Almeida doesn’t have any wrestling so he’s not likely to try and do anything other than stand and bang. I think that results in another stoppage win for Pinas.
Best bet: Damian Pinas -3.5 (-175)
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Ryan Gandra (-155) vs. Zach Reese (+130)
Gandra’s boxing looked on point when he took out Jose Medina in around forty seconds (see it here). That was Gandra’s first appearance after earning a contract on Contender Series, also with a first round stoppage. He’s now 9-1 as a pro.
Reese dropped a split decision to Michel Pereira in his last fight, though plenty of folks thought he won the bout. Before that he finished Jackson McVey with a second round submission (see it here). And before that he caused a no contest with a brutal groin shot on Sedriques Dumas. Reese is now 4-3 1 NC in UFC.
Gandra looked great against Medina, but most guys do. Other than Reese, that is. Reese went to a decision with the Bolivian and hit him 75 times without putting him away. That’s not going to make me pick Gandra, though.
I actually think Reese might be an interesting underdog here. I think he has a more rounded game than Gandra and he’s had a lot more reps at this level than the recently signed LFA fighter. He’s also got some size and reach over Gandra. I’ll take him plus the points, expecting he either gets a finish, the decision or loses a close one.
Best bet: Zach Reese +5.5 (-110)
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Farid Basharat (-600) vs. John Garza (+440)
Basharat was gearing up to face Ethyn Ewing this weekend in what would have been one of the more compelling fights of the night. With Ewing out, though, Garza slides in for his promotional debut.
Basharat is now 15-0 as a pro after he beat Jean Matsumoto by split decision in February. That fight could have gone either way, though. I scored it for the Brazilian. Before that, Basharat had more convincing wins over Chris Gutierrez and Victor Hugo.
Garza is 6-1 and just 23 years old. They probably called a lot of guys and got a lot of nos before this kid said yes. He’s fought with Fury FC for the last little while and has won his last two by stoppage. There’s no one on his record that you’d recognize, though.
I think Basharat has been good a lot more than he’s been great in the Octagon. But I can’t pick the underdog here. Basharat is far too skilled and battle-tested to get upset here. Garza fights with some personality, which should help him in this situation, but his striking and movement are quite wooden.
Basharat is a very smart fighter, and I have a feeling he might be a little more cautious than usual against someone so unknown who is coming in on short notice. Maybe that means we’ll see this fight go over the listed 2.5 rounds (Basharat has won over fifty percent of his wins by decision, after all).
Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-120)
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Cody Durden (+205) vs. Alessandro Costa (-250)
Durden managed one of the best wins of his career in April. He jumped in on short notice and beat Jafel Filho (as a +475 underdog). He needed that win, too. After losing his previous four he was probably looking at a pink slip had he lost. He’s now 7-8-1 in UFC with recent losses to Nyamjargal Tumendemberel and Jose Ochoa (by TKO — see it here). He also went the distance, and lost, with Joshua Van.
Costa blitzed Matt Schnell for a first round TKO in June. However, Schnell thought the stoppage was early. The replay showed he had some reason to be upset. This was one of the first clangers of the year for veteran referee Herb Dean. Before this fight Costa took out Stewart Nicoll with a ripping punch to the liver.
I was really impressed with Durden in his last fight. I thought he had a terrible match-up waiting for him, like I think he does here, and he shut down Filho and hurt him on multiple occasions. He did seem to catch Filho on a bad day, though. He also fought that fight as a Bantamweight, due to the short notice aspect of the fight and that change seemed to really benefit him against the smaller Filho.
I’d be very surprised if Durden has a similar showing to that against Costa, who has the kind of striking that gives Durden problems and he is, of course, very good on the ground, too. I think Costa will hit too hard for Durden and we’ll see a finish in this one. I’ll take Costa minus the points.
Best bet: Alessandro Costa -3.5 (-160)
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UFC 329 Long Shots!
Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action …
Two fight parlay: Mario Bautista and Kai Kamaka III (+615)
I think Bautista’s wrestling could give Sandhagen some problems here, especially if it looks as good as it did in his last fight. And I think Kamaka has a chance to use wrestling to get by Riley, too. If they both decide to do things other than striking then I have a shot at cashing this parlay.
Terrance McKinney by submission in under 59.5 seconds (+1200)
McKinney gets things done fast and it’s not always with strikes. He’s never gotten a submission, in UFC, this quickly, so maybe he’ll get that on Saturday. We know Green can be submitted quickly, too, just look at what Pimblett did to him.
Elisha Ellison moneyline (+1300)
Why the heck not? We’ve got a guy making his UFC debut and he’s the biggest favorite of all time. When are we going to see this ever again? I’ll sprinkle a little on here just in case we get the biggest upset ever.
To checkout the latest and greatest UFC 329: “McGregor vs. Holloway 2” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.
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