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Golf’s major season continues with the 126th U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, N.Y. Situated between the Atlantic Ocean to the south and the waters of Peconic Bay and Long Island Sound to the north, Shinnecock occupies one of the most exposed pieces of terrain in American championship golf. The combination of rolling sandy ground, firm turf, ever-present coastal winds and some of the most demanding green complexes in the game has helped establish its reputation as one of golf’s premier championship venues. Widely regarded as the closest thing American golf has to a traditional links course, Shinnecock provides a style of examination rarely seen outside of The Open Championship.
Originally shaped by William Flynn in 1931 and later restored by Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw, Shinnecock Hills spans more than 200 acres of windswept terrain that appears remarkably natural to the surrounding landscape. Flynn’s design relies on strategic angles, subtle elevation changes, expansive fairways, native fescue and elevated, crowned greens that place a premium on precision. Though players are given ample room from the tee, the course becomes progressively more difficult closer to the hole. Weakly struck approaches, poor misses around the greens and putts played from the wrong side of the hole are routinely punished. As a result, Shinnecock rewards complete golfers rather than specialists who rely on a single strength.
RELATED: U.S. Open 2026: 7 players who will help you win your pool
Virtually every notable player in the world rankings will be at Shinnecock Hills, led by World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler. The biggest storyline entering the week centers on Scheffler’s pursuit of the career Grand Slam. A victory at Shinnecock would make him just the seventh player in history to win all four majors. While Scheffler enters the championship as the clear favorite, the race behind him is considerably more crowded. Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm remain the most accomplished challengers, with both former U.S. Open champions continuing to contend regularly on the biggest stages.
Beyond that trio, the championship feels remarkably open. Matt Fitzpatrick and Cameron Young have been among the most productive players of the 2026 season with a combined five wins between them. Ludvig Aberg, Xander Schauffele, and Bryson DeChambeau possess the talent to contend on any major championship venue, while Brooks Koepka and Tommy Fleetwood return to the site of their successes in 2018, when Koepka successfully defended his U.S. Open title and Fleetwood nearly matched the championship scoring record with a final-round 63.
RELATED: U.S. Open picks 2026: Our experts are all-in on Patrick Reed
Here are my favorite plays and fades in each price range for the 2026 U.S. Open.
$9,000+ range Play: Scottie Scheffler, $14,900
Whether to roster Scheffler this week is less a question of his form and more a question of lineup construction. In previous events this year, fitting his salary alongside a group of golfers with legitimate upside often required uncomfortable compromises elsewhere. The addition of a deeper $5,000 range and a relatively soft pricing structure across the field makes that task much easier at this U.S. Open.
Over the past two months his approach game has returned to the elite level that defined much of 2025. The result has been four top-three finishes in his past six starts, with his ball-striking once again separating him from the field.
Perhaps even more encouraging for a championship expected to feature significant wind is how well he has performed in difficult conditions. Over his past 36 rounds played in winds of 18 mph or greater, Scheffler has gained an astonishing 3.15 strokes per round on the field. For perspective, that figure is actually higher than the 2.81 strokes per round he has gained in calmer conditions. Given the forecast and the demands of Shinnecock Hills, that combination of elite current form and proven success in the wind only strengthens his case this week.
Play: Xander Schauffele, $10,100
Warren Little
Schauffele’s U.S. Open record over the past decade is arguably the strongest in the field. While a victory remains absent from his résumé, he has gained 2.79 strokes per round in the championship and has never finished worse than 14th in nine starts since 2017, producing seven top-10 finishes along the way. That consistency extends to Shinnecock Hills, where he finished sixth in 2018. His 2026 campaign has been similarly impressive. Along with Cameron Young, he is one of only two players to record top-10 finishes at The Players, the Masters and the PGA this season.
Fade: Bryson DeChambeau, $11,000
Having yet to make a weekend appearance in a major this season, Bryson DeChambeau arrives at a venue that minimizes many of the advantages he typically relies upon. Shinnecock Hills places a premium on controlling trajectory in heavy winds, positioning tee shots in specific portions of wide but strategically angled fairways and navigating tightly mown runoffs that demand creativity and precision around the greens. Those requirements have not aligned particularly well with DeChambeau's style of play.
Questions surrounding his form are compounded by uncertainty away from the course. Speculation regarding his long-term future with LIV Golf has continued to circulate, while it appears he is tinkering with his driver setup. Whether fair or not, DeChambeau enters the week carrying more questions than answers, making him one of the more difficult players in the field to project.
Per the Rabbit Hole. SG average in “very difficult” scoring conditions over the last five years.
Sign up for the industry's leading data tool to make golf stats easy to decipher—head to BetspertsGolf.com now and get access to The Rabbit Hole for only $10 for your first month. Use promo code GD10 at sign up for this amazing deal!
Read The Line's Keith Stewart joins Pat Mayo's show to discuss Bryson DeChambeau's chances at Shinnecock Hills:
Watch the full show here.
$8,000+ range Play: Matt Fitzpatrick $8,900
Mike Mulholland
Few players in this field arrive at Shinnecock Hills with a profile as well-suited to the challenge as Matt Fitzpatrick. Growing up in England, and with an extensive history of success on links courses, Fitzpatrick has spent his career developing the traits that tend to separate contenders from the rest of the field when scoring conditions become difficult. He has often spoken about preferring demanding tournaments where par retains value, and his results back that up. According to Rabbit Hole data from Betsperts Golf, Fitzpatrick ranks sixth in this field in strokes gained per round under "very difficult" scoring conditions, which we expect at Shinnecock.
The 2022 U.S. Open champion has been one of the most accomplished players on tour this season, collecting three victories and adding two runner-up finishes, including a second-place result at the Canadian Open last week. His consistency has been equally impressive. Fitzpatrick has made the cut in 10 of 11 career U.S. Open appearances and has finished T-18 or better in four of his past five starts in the championship. He also finished T-12 the last time Shinnecock hosted the U.S. Open in 2018.
What makes Fitzpatrick particularly dangerous at Shinnecock is the combination of accuracy, short-game reliability and comfort in the wind. His naturally lower ball flight allows him to control trajectory when conditions become difficult, while his ability to consistently find fairways should help him avoid the penal fescue that awaits wayward drives. Around the greens, he possesses the touch and patience required to navigate Shinnecock's tightly mown runoffs and demanding recovery shots.
The biggest development in Fitzpatrick's game this season has been his iron play. Swing changes made during the offseason have led to a significant improvement in his approach numbers, turning a traditional strength into a legitimate weapon. If that level of approach play continues, Fitzpatrick has all the tools necessary to contend deep into Sunday and position himself for a second U.S. Open title.
RELATED: U.S. Open 2026: Our 13 best bets for Shinnecock
Fade: Justin Rose, $8,400
Throughout his career, the U.S. Open has been Justin Rose's least successful major championship. Despite his victory at the 2013 U.S. Open, he has missed the cut in five of his last six appearances in the event. His 2026 season has followed a similarly inconsistent pattern, featuring four missed cuts and several disappointing finishes in signature events.
There are also legitimate concerns about how his game translates to the specific challenges awaiting players at Shinnecock Hills. While Rose remains one of the more accomplished ball-strikers in the field, windy conditions have historically not been a strength. Using a custom wind model in Rabbit Hole, he ranks 72nd in this field and sits last among the betting favorites and primary DFS targets, gaining just 0.28 strokes per round in rounds played with sustained winds above 18 mph over the last five years.
$7,000+ range Play: Patrick Cantlay, $7,300
Mike Mulholland
Cantlay has quietly built one of the strongest U.S. Open records in the field, missing just one cut in 10 career appearances while posting top-15 finishes in four of his past five starts in the championship. That reliability extends well beyond this event. Over his last 16 worldwide starts, he has finished outside the top 37 only twice, and he enters Shinnecock having recorded top-20 finishes in five of his last six tournaments.
The foundation of Cantlay's success remains his tee-to-green game. He ranks 10th in this field in strokes gained/tee to green, with an inconsistent putter often being the only thing preventing higher finishes. His patient, methodical style is particularly well-suited for demanding championship setups where limiting mistakes is often more important than chasing birdies. Over the past five years, he ranks 10th in this field on courses categorized as "very difficult," gaining 1.34 strokes per round according to Rabbit Hole data.
Cantlay has also developed a strong track record in the Northeast, recording nine top-15 finishes in his last 11 starts in the region. He enters the week in solid form as well, posting four finishes of T-12 or better across his last six tournaments, including a T-12 at the Masters.
At this salary, Cantlay is unlikely to go overlooked, but the combination of his U.S. Open consistency, recent form and proven success on difficult golf courses makes him one of the more dependable options in his range.
RELATED: U.S. Open 2026 Power Rankings: The entire field ranked at Shinnecock Hills
$6,000+ range Play: Cam Smith, $6,900
Andrew Redington
Cameron Smith enters Shinnecock Hills as one of the more intriguing wild cards in the field. While his driving has long been the weakest part of his game, few players are better equipped to handle the demands around Shinnecock's greens. Smith remains one of the premier scramblers and putters in professional golf, skills that take on added importance at a venue where closely mown runoffs, shaved collection areas and demanding green complexes place constant pressure on a player's short game.
The Australian has quietly begun to resemble the player who won both The Open Championship and The Players Championship. Following a difficult stretch that included six consecutive missed cuts in majors, Smith has posted finishes of T-7, T-16 and T-5 over his past three starts. His T-7 at the PGA at Aronimink was particularly encouraging, and he followed it with another strong performance at LIV Golf Andalucía, held at the notoriously demanding Real Club Valderrama. Much of the turnaround can be traced to recent swing changes and a coaching switch that have sparked meaningful improvement with his irons. Smith has gained strokes on approach in three of his past four starts.
Shinnecock's links-like characteristics should also work in his favor. The course's wider fairways allow players to be more selective off the tee, potentially reducing Smith's reliance on driver and minimizing his biggest weakness. It is no coincidence that his best U.S. Open performances have come at similarly expansive, links-inspired venues such as Chambers Bay and Los Angeles Country Club, where he recorded two career top-five finishes. His victory at St. Andrews, along with wins at TPC Sawgrass and Waialae Country Club, further demonstrates an ability to excel when wind, creativity, scrambling and putting become the primary factors.
$5,000+ range Play: Billy Horschel, $5,800
Minas Panagiotakis
While I do not expect to have significant exposure to this salary range, Horschel is one exception worth considering. The veteran has made eight cuts in 13 career U.S. Open appearances and possesses a skill set that fits many of Shinnecock Hills' demands. He remains one of the strongest short game players in the field, particularly from tight, closely mown lies where creativity and touch become essential. His comfort in windy conditions, combined with an approach game that is capable of producing spike weeks, gives him more upside than most players in this range. Horschel enters the week off a T-15 finish at the RBC Canadian Open, where he gained an impressive 6.6 strokes on approach, providing further evidence that his iron play may be trending in the right direction.
RELATED: U.S. Open 2026: 5 longshot bets we love for Shinnecock Hills
Sign up for the industry's leading data tool to make golf stats easy to decipher—head to BetspertsGolf.com now and get access to The Rabbit Hole for only $10 for your first month. Use promo code GD10 at sign up for this amazing deal!
Ron Klos (@PGASplits101 on X) is a PGA Tour data analyst for Betsperts Golf.
Continue reading...
Originally shaped by William Flynn in 1931 and later restored by Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw, Shinnecock Hills spans more than 200 acres of windswept terrain that appears remarkably natural to the surrounding landscape. Flynn’s design relies on strategic angles, subtle elevation changes, expansive fairways, native fescue and elevated, crowned greens that place a premium on precision. Though players are given ample room from the tee, the course becomes progressively more difficult closer to the hole. Weakly struck approaches, poor misses around the greens and putts played from the wrong side of the hole are routinely punished. As a result, Shinnecock rewards complete golfers rather than specialists who rely on a single strength.
RELATED: U.S. Open 2026: 7 players who will help you win your pool
Virtually every notable player in the world rankings will be at Shinnecock Hills, led by World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler. The biggest storyline entering the week centers on Scheffler’s pursuit of the career Grand Slam. A victory at Shinnecock would make him just the seventh player in history to win all four majors. While Scheffler enters the championship as the clear favorite, the race behind him is considerably more crowded. Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm remain the most accomplished challengers, with both former U.S. Open champions continuing to contend regularly on the biggest stages.
Beyond that trio, the championship feels remarkably open. Matt Fitzpatrick and Cameron Young have been among the most productive players of the 2026 season with a combined five wins between them. Ludvig Aberg, Xander Schauffele, and Bryson DeChambeau possess the talent to contend on any major championship venue, while Brooks Koepka and Tommy Fleetwood return to the site of their successes in 2018, when Koepka successfully defended his U.S. Open title and Fleetwood nearly matched the championship scoring record with a final-round 63.
RELATED: U.S. Open picks 2026: Our experts are all-in on Patrick Reed
Here are my favorite plays and fades in each price range for the 2026 U.S. Open.
$9,000+ range Play: Scottie Scheffler, $14,900
Whether to roster Scheffler this week is less a question of his form and more a question of lineup construction. In previous events this year, fitting his salary alongside a group of golfers with legitimate upside often required uncomfortable compromises elsewhere. The addition of a deeper $5,000 range and a relatively soft pricing structure across the field makes that task much easier at this U.S. Open.
Over the past two months his approach game has returned to the elite level that defined much of 2025. The result has been four top-three finishes in his past six starts, with his ball-striking once again separating him from the field.
Perhaps even more encouraging for a championship expected to feature significant wind is how well he has performed in difficult conditions. Over his past 36 rounds played in winds of 18 mph or greater, Scheffler has gained an astonishing 3.15 strokes per round on the field. For perspective, that figure is actually higher than the 2.81 strokes per round he has gained in calmer conditions. Given the forecast and the demands of Shinnecock Hills, that combination of elite current form and proven success in the wind only strengthens his case this week.
Play: Xander Schauffele, $10,100
You must be registered for see images attach
Warren Little
Schauffele’s U.S. Open record over the past decade is arguably the strongest in the field. While a victory remains absent from his résumé, he has gained 2.79 strokes per round in the championship and has never finished worse than 14th in nine starts since 2017, producing seven top-10 finishes along the way. That consistency extends to Shinnecock Hills, where he finished sixth in 2018. His 2026 campaign has been similarly impressive. Along with Cameron Young, he is one of only two players to record top-10 finishes at The Players, the Masters and the PGA this season.
Fade: Bryson DeChambeau, $11,000
Having yet to make a weekend appearance in a major this season, Bryson DeChambeau arrives at a venue that minimizes many of the advantages he typically relies upon. Shinnecock Hills places a premium on controlling trajectory in heavy winds, positioning tee shots in specific portions of wide but strategically angled fairways and navigating tightly mown runoffs that demand creativity and precision around the greens. Those requirements have not aligned particularly well with DeChambeau's style of play.
Questions surrounding his form are compounded by uncertainty away from the course. Speculation regarding his long-term future with LIV Golf has continued to circulate, while it appears he is tinkering with his driver setup. Whether fair or not, DeChambeau enters the week carrying more questions than answers, making him one of the more difficult players in the field to project.
You must be registered for see images attach
Per the Rabbit Hole. SG average in “very difficult” scoring conditions over the last five years.
Sign up for the industry's leading data tool to make golf stats easy to decipher—head to BetspertsGolf.com now and get access to The Rabbit Hole for only $10 for your first month. Use promo code GD10 at sign up for this amazing deal!
Read The Line's Keith Stewart joins Pat Mayo's show to discuss Bryson DeChambeau's chances at Shinnecock Hills:
Watch the full show here.
$8,000+ range Play: Matt Fitzpatrick $8,900
You must be registered for see images attach
Mike Mulholland
Few players in this field arrive at Shinnecock Hills with a profile as well-suited to the challenge as Matt Fitzpatrick. Growing up in England, and with an extensive history of success on links courses, Fitzpatrick has spent his career developing the traits that tend to separate contenders from the rest of the field when scoring conditions become difficult. He has often spoken about preferring demanding tournaments where par retains value, and his results back that up. According to Rabbit Hole data from Betsperts Golf, Fitzpatrick ranks sixth in this field in strokes gained per round under "very difficult" scoring conditions, which we expect at Shinnecock.
The 2022 U.S. Open champion has been one of the most accomplished players on tour this season, collecting three victories and adding two runner-up finishes, including a second-place result at the Canadian Open last week. His consistency has been equally impressive. Fitzpatrick has made the cut in 10 of 11 career U.S. Open appearances and has finished T-18 or better in four of his past five starts in the championship. He also finished T-12 the last time Shinnecock hosted the U.S. Open in 2018.
What makes Fitzpatrick particularly dangerous at Shinnecock is the combination of accuracy, short-game reliability and comfort in the wind. His naturally lower ball flight allows him to control trajectory when conditions become difficult, while his ability to consistently find fairways should help him avoid the penal fescue that awaits wayward drives. Around the greens, he possesses the touch and patience required to navigate Shinnecock's tightly mown runoffs and demanding recovery shots.
The biggest development in Fitzpatrick's game this season has been his iron play. Swing changes made during the offseason have led to a significant improvement in his approach numbers, turning a traditional strength into a legitimate weapon. If that level of approach play continues, Fitzpatrick has all the tools necessary to contend deep into Sunday and position himself for a second U.S. Open title.
RELATED: U.S. Open 2026: Our 13 best bets for Shinnecock
Fade: Justin Rose, $8,400
Throughout his career, the U.S. Open has been Justin Rose's least successful major championship. Despite his victory at the 2013 U.S. Open, he has missed the cut in five of his last six appearances in the event. His 2026 season has followed a similarly inconsistent pattern, featuring four missed cuts and several disappointing finishes in signature events.
There are also legitimate concerns about how his game translates to the specific challenges awaiting players at Shinnecock Hills. While Rose remains one of the more accomplished ball-strikers in the field, windy conditions have historically not been a strength. Using a custom wind model in Rabbit Hole, he ranks 72nd in this field and sits last among the betting favorites and primary DFS targets, gaining just 0.28 strokes per round in rounds played with sustained winds above 18 mph over the last five years.
$7,000+ range Play: Patrick Cantlay, $7,300
You must be registered for see images attach
Mike Mulholland
Cantlay has quietly built one of the strongest U.S. Open records in the field, missing just one cut in 10 career appearances while posting top-15 finishes in four of his past five starts in the championship. That reliability extends well beyond this event. Over his last 16 worldwide starts, he has finished outside the top 37 only twice, and he enters Shinnecock having recorded top-20 finishes in five of his last six tournaments.
The foundation of Cantlay's success remains his tee-to-green game. He ranks 10th in this field in strokes gained/tee to green, with an inconsistent putter often being the only thing preventing higher finishes. His patient, methodical style is particularly well-suited for demanding championship setups where limiting mistakes is often more important than chasing birdies. Over the past five years, he ranks 10th in this field on courses categorized as "very difficult," gaining 1.34 strokes per round according to Rabbit Hole data.
Cantlay has also developed a strong track record in the Northeast, recording nine top-15 finishes in his last 11 starts in the region. He enters the week in solid form as well, posting four finishes of T-12 or better across his last six tournaments, including a T-12 at the Masters.
At this salary, Cantlay is unlikely to go overlooked, but the combination of his U.S. Open consistency, recent form and proven success on difficult golf courses makes him one of the more dependable options in his range.
RELATED: U.S. Open 2026 Power Rankings: The entire field ranked at Shinnecock Hills
$6,000+ range Play: Cam Smith, $6,900
You must be registered for see images attach
Andrew Redington
Cameron Smith enters Shinnecock Hills as one of the more intriguing wild cards in the field. While his driving has long been the weakest part of his game, few players are better equipped to handle the demands around Shinnecock's greens. Smith remains one of the premier scramblers and putters in professional golf, skills that take on added importance at a venue where closely mown runoffs, shaved collection areas and demanding green complexes place constant pressure on a player's short game.
The Australian has quietly begun to resemble the player who won both The Open Championship and The Players Championship. Following a difficult stretch that included six consecutive missed cuts in majors, Smith has posted finishes of T-7, T-16 and T-5 over his past three starts. His T-7 at the PGA at Aronimink was particularly encouraging, and he followed it with another strong performance at LIV Golf Andalucía, held at the notoriously demanding Real Club Valderrama. Much of the turnaround can be traced to recent swing changes and a coaching switch that have sparked meaningful improvement with his irons. Smith has gained strokes on approach in three of his past four starts.
Shinnecock's links-like characteristics should also work in his favor. The course's wider fairways allow players to be more selective off the tee, potentially reducing Smith's reliance on driver and minimizing his biggest weakness. It is no coincidence that his best U.S. Open performances have come at similarly expansive, links-inspired venues such as Chambers Bay and Los Angeles Country Club, where he recorded two career top-five finishes. His victory at St. Andrews, along with wins at TPC Sawgrass and Waialae Country Club, further demonstrates an ability to excel when wind, creativity, scrambling and putting become the primary factors.
$5,000+ range Play: Billy Horschel, $5,800
You must be registered for see images attach
Minas Panagiotakis
While I do not expect to have significant exposure to this salary range, Horschel is one exception worth considering. The veteran has made eight cuts in 13 career U.S. Open appearances and possesses a skill set that fits many of Shinnecock Hills' demands. He remains one of the strongest short game players in the field, particularly from tight, closely mown lies where creativity and touch become essential. His comfort in windy conditions, combined with an approach game that is capable of producing spike weeks, gives him more upside than most players in this range. Horschel enters the week off a T-15 finish at the RBC Canadian Open, where he gained an impressive 6.6 strokes on approach, providing further evidence that his iron play may be trending in the right direction.
RELATED: U.S. Open 2026: 5 longshot bets we love for Shinnecock Hills
Sign up for the industry's leading data tool to make golf stats easy to decipher—head to BetspertsGolf.com now and get access to The Rabbit Hole for only $10 for your first month. Use promo code GD10 at sign up for this amazing deal!
Ron Klos (@PGASplits101 on X) is a PGA Tour data analyst for Betsperts Golf.
Continue reading...
