I’m watching but the route is meh, nothing on northern France, nothing north of Paris even, 2 days arrival on Alpe D’Huez what is that is not that there aren’t other mountains in the area. They needed 2 long flat 50Km ITT to give Remco a slim chance.
I’m afraid will be over by stage 14, comes 8 days after the col du turmalet on stage 6. Last 8km of Tourmalet is 9.5% If UAE launched a full-gas assault on the Tourmalet—with McNulty, Yates, and Del Toro setting a blistering pace for the first 5 km Pogi will do the last part at 7.5 W/kg and no one can follow. He might not get a lot on stage 6 but enough to psychologically kill all the other GC riders.
He put up alien numbers at the tour de suisse. Pogacar has no weaknesses, Visma can line a team of 20…..will not matter.
The Tour starts in Scotland next year, meaning that they will land in northern France, so it was passed this year. Remco gets his chance next year.
This year's parkour is one of the hardest in 35 years. Heard a podcast that ranked it the hardest since '99 and a clear top 4 in modern cyckling depending how you look at it. Highest number of altitude meters in 29 years.
All set up for Vingegaard and Seixas to compete as much with Pogi as possible (But as you write doubtful that Jonas can beat him). But not Remco.
Remember that Vingegaard has one advantage over Pogi. He is more durable over 3 weeks and absorbs oxygen better, so long, hard, altitude climbs in order to beat Pogi. The parkour has that and he is the only rider ever to beat Pogi in a stage race, so let's see. But I think you are right. On the climbs, it will be UAE leading until only the top 5-6 + Piganzoli are left and when Del Toro takes the lead it most likely only will be a Del Toro, Pogi and Jonas left.
But a lot of question marks here. In such a hard race, how will they look in the 3rd week? UAE seems to be riding Del Toro hard in the beginning in his first Grand Tour. Visma seems to be saving Kuss and especially Paganzoli for the 3rd week (it was Jorgensen and Armirail around Jonas on the climbs on stage 2). Kuss doesn't look to be where he should be at this point, but saving Piganzoli is an interesting move. A non-injured Vingegaard have always been fresher than Pogi in the 3rd week. A fresher Jonas with fresher Kuss and Piganzoli against a UAE team that they could have worn down by that point? Time will tell, but in '23, which was the last time Jonas rode TDF without injuries they openly said that they if Jonas was within 2 minutes of Pogi entering the final week, then he would win. And he destroyed Pogi in the final week both in 22 and 23.
But it started great.
On stage 1, Visma showed once again that they are smarter than the rest. That TTT was a thing of beauty by making two teams within the team! The heavy team pulled them to the two climbs in the fastest time and then used the remaining 3 as launch rockets for Jonas (Kuss failed though).
Stage 2 was also great. UAE tricked everyone. The short but insane climb finish is made for Del Toro and Pogi and when Jonas took Pogi's wheel instead of the lead out Del Toro, and Pogi didn't go then Del Toro could win.
Lidl-Trek looks intriguing BTW. Both Ayuso and lieutenant Skjelmose look strong. They could be in the mix for something. Ayuso finished 4th on stage 1 and Skjelmose around 30 despite having a flat tire early on the stage.
