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GOODYEAR, AZ – A month? Two? More than that?
The only thing for sure about Cincinnati Reds ace Hunter Greene and his stiff elbow is that the baseball math tells us he doesn’t have time to open the season on time in a best-case scenario – and more likely is looking at a best-case of missing the first three or four weeks of the season.
Greene left camp last week to seek medical opinions on elbow stiffness he said dates back to the end of last season.
He also said after his lone Cactus League start this spring, “I feel great.I feel strong. It’s obviously early but I feel I’m in a good place right now. It’s easy with my velo. I feel like I was just up there playing catch.”
More: Reds name Andrew Abbott their Opening Day starting pitcher
So where does that leave the Reds and all their elevated expectations for a October success this year?
Not necessarily in bad shape, depending on how a few other factors come into play.
As we wait to learn Greene’s prognosis, here are the top five reasons the Reds can weather perhaps even a lengthy loss of their ace:
The Reds have been down this unfortunate road before and actually fared pretty well at times. Losing your ace for the start of the season for any length of time is not ideal, but last year a Grade 1 groin strain cost Greene nearly half the season, and the Reds still made the playoffs.
Two years earlier, he was sidelined most of the season as they rode their ragged bullpen to the doorstep of the playoffs before being eliminated on the second-to-last day of the season.
But here’s the proof in the pudding: The Reds strangely had a better record last year in the 72 games Greene was on the IL (39-33, .542) than they did in the 90 games he was in the rotation (44-46, .489).
Certainly, it’s a testament to their starting pitching depth, which runs even deeper this time around with Rhett Lowder and Brandon Williamson both back from injuries that sidelined them for all of 2025.
This week will be pivotal in finding out how long Greene might miss.
After getting an MRI and meeting with team doctors in Cincinnati last week, Greene was scheduled to meet with a specialist in Los Angeles this week. If he's cleared of any injuries, he theoretically could begin throwing again by the end of the week, at which point he would essentially be closer to the start of a natural spring training buildup than he would to getting back in a Cactus League game.
No. 2 overall draft pick? Check. Triple-digit fastball? Check. Ten strikeouts a game just by showing up for a start? Check.
Meet Chase Burns: Hunter Greene, 2.0.
Until Greene’s injury, Burns was battling Lowder for the fifth starter job. Now they both might open the season in the rotation, with Burns promising a reasonable facsimile of the Reds ace if last year’s rookie season is any indication.
Burns struck out 10 or more batters in four of his last five starts before a brief stint on the injured list followed by a powerful finish in the Reds bullpen.
Those two words come with 49 home runs slugged last year alone.
The Reds’ biggest free agent of the offseason returns to hitter friendly Great American Ball Park to do his slugging as the Reds’ cleanup hitter and personal lineup protector for Elly De La Cruz – their back-to-back home runs in their second spring game together in the lineup underscoring the vision of this season.
The Reds finished last season just below average in run scoring and slugging last season despite the ballpark tendencies. They made the playoffs despite those struggles.
Suárez’s addition, along with the improved health of De La Cruz and growth from maybe one or two more in a young lineup, suggests the kind of overall improvement that might push the Reds at least into the upper half of the league in production — which could help offset the hit to the rotation.
The Reds have what looks like a forgiving, even soft, spots on the schedule early for more than the first quarter of the season.
Of the first 44 games, only 10 are against 2025 playoff teams. Meanwhile, six are against the Pirates, and 16 more are against the Marlins, Angels, Twins, Rockies and Nationals.
If they can get off to a good start, it gives the Reds a chance to withstand even a subsequent rough stretch and also to play around with rotation combinations to find the best options for covering even a lengthy Greene absence.
The Reds have a deeper bullpen than last year with potential length options such as Williamson available to have in the pen to open the season if the Reds feel Greene leaves them short enough in rotation innings.
Right-hander Pierce Johnson and lefties Caleb Ferguson and Brock Burke were key additions to a returning crew that includes closer Emilio Pagán, setup men Tony Santillan and Graham Ashcraft, and late-season key performer Connor Phillips.
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Top 5 reasons Cincinnati Reds can survive loss of Hunter Greene
Continue reading...
The only thing for sure about Cincinnati Reds ace Hunter Greene and his stiff elbow is that the baseball math tells us he doesn’t have time to open the season on time in a best-case scenario – and more likely is looking at a best-case of missing the first three or four weeks of the season.
Greene left camp last week to seek medical opinions on elbow stiffness he said dates back to the end of last season.
He also said after his lone Cactus League start this spring, “I feel great.I feel strong. It’s obviously early but I feel I’m in a good place right now. It’s easy with my velo. I feel like I was just up there playing catch.”
More: Reds name Andrew Abbott their Opening Day starting pitcher
So where does that leave the Reds and all their elevated expectations for a October success this year?
Not necessarily in bad shape, depending on how a few other factors come into play.
As we wait to learn Greene’s prognosis, here are the top five reasons the Reds can weather perhaps even a lengthy loss of their ace:
1. Hunter Greene on IL? Been there, done that
The Reds have been down this unfortunate road before and actually fared pretty well at times. Losing your ace for the start of the season for any length of time is not ideal, but last year a Grade 1 groin strain cost Greene nearly half the season, and the Reds still made the playoffs.
Two years earlier, he was sidelined most of the season as they rode their ragged bullpen to the doorstep of the playoffs before being eliminated on the second-to-last day of the season.
But here’s the proof in the pudding: The Reds strangely had a better record last year in the 72 games Greene was on the IL (39-33, .542) than they did in the 90 games he was in the rotation (44-46, .489).
Certainly, it’s a testament to their starting pitching depth, which runs even deeper this time around with Rhett Lowder and Brandon Williamson both back from injuries that sidelined them for all of 2025.
This week will be pivotal in finding out how long Greene might miss.
After getting an MRI and meeting with team doctors in Cincinnati last week, Greene was scheduled to meet with a specialist in Los Angeles this week. If he's cleared of any injuries, he theoretically could begin throwing again by the end of the week, at which point he would essentially be closer to the start of a natural spring training buildup than he would to getting back in a Cactus League game.
2. The Reds have a second Hunter Greene in the wings
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No. 2 overall draft pick? Check. Triple-digit fastball? Check. Ten strikeouts a game just by showing up for a start? Check.
Meet Chase Burns: Hunter Greene, 2.0.
Until Greene’s injury, Burns was battling Lowder for the fifth starter job. Now they both might open the season in the rotation, with Burns promising a reasonable facsimile of the Reds ace if last year’s rookie season is any indication.
Burns struck out 10 or more batters in four of his last five starts before a brief stint on the injured list followed by a powerful finish in the Reds bullpen.
3. Two words: Eugenio Suárez
Those two words come with 49 home runs slugged last year alone.
The Reds’ biggest free agent of the offseason returns to hitter friendly Great American Ball Park to do his slugging as the Reds’ cleanup hitter and personal lineup protector for Elly De La Cruz – their back-to-back home runs in their second spring game together in the lineup underscoring the vision of this season.
The Reds finished last season just below average in run scoring and slugging last season despite the ballpark tendencies. They made the playoffs despite those struggles.
Suárez’s addition, along with the improved health of De La Cruz and growth from maybe one or two more in a young lineup, suggests the kind of overall improvement that might push the Reds at least into the upper half of the league in production — which could help offset the hit to the rotation.
4. Time, schedule on Reds’ side
The Reds have what looks like a forgiving, even soft, spots on the schedule early for more than the first quarter of the season.
Of the first 44 games, only 10 are against 2025 playoff teams. Meanwhile, six are against the Pirates, and 16 more are against the Marlins, Angels, Twins, Rockies and Nationals.
If they can get off to a good start, it gives the Reds a chance to withstand even a subsequent rough stretch and also to play around with rotation combinations to find the best options for covering even a lengthy Greene absence.
5. Pierce Johnson and the improved bullpen
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The Reds have a deeper bullpen than last year with potential length options such as Williamson available to have in the pen to open the season if the Reds feel Greene leaves them short enough in rotation innings.
Right-hander Pierce Johnson and lefties Caleb Ferguson and Brock Burke were key additions to a returning crew that includes closer Emilio Pagán, setup men Tony Santillan and Graham Ashcraft, and late-season key performer Connor Phillips.
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Top 5 reasons Cincinnati Reds can survive loss of Hunter Greene
Continue reading...
