Theory on home court

NashDishesDimes

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I brought up this theory to a buddy and he thought i was crazy, what say you?

Im not convinced home court in the playoffs is much, or not at all of an advantage. The reason is because the first 6 games favor the lower seed. Games 1 and 2 is when the most pressure is on the home team, buts get tight. For the lower seed, games 1 and 2 have the least pressure. You want to play the least pressure games on the road. Both teams have no idea what the game plan is going to be. Anything can happen, especially game 1. Also, travel is usually easiest prior to game 1 because likely had a few days off. If away team steals 1 of those first 2 games, there is a huge advantage to lower seed. 3 of next 5 games are at home.

Obviously advantage of home court is game 7, although i argue 1-6 is in lower seeds favor. We also assume that a series goes 7 games which neither team wants to do. There is no guarantee there even is a game 7. We always say ‘7 game series’ but its not, its the first team to win 4 games.
 
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AzStevenCal

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I brought up this theory to a buddy and he thought i was crazy, what say you?

Im not convinced home court in the playoffs is much, or not at all of an advantage. The reason is because the first 6 games favor the lower seed. Games 1 and 2 is when the most pressure is on the home team, buts get tight. For the lower seed, games 1 and 2 have the least pressure. You want to play the least pressure games on the road. Both teams have no idea what the game plan is going to be. Anything can happen, especially game 1. Also, travel is usually easiest prior to game 1 because likely had a few days off. If away team steals 1 of those first 2 games, there is a huge advantage to lower seed. 3 of next 5 games are at home.

Obviously advantage of home court is game 7, although i argue 1-6 is in lower seeds favor. We also assume that a series goes 7 games which neither team wants to do. There is no guarantee there even is a game 7.
Referees, in general, often seem to respond to crowd reactions - I'd prefer HC for that reason alone. Still, if you are clearly the better team, home or road shouldn't matter much.
 

Peter Sheldon

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I brought up this theory to a buddy and he thought i was crazy, what say you?

Im not convinced home court in the playoffs is much, or not at all of an advantage. The reason is because the first 6 games favor the lower seed. Games 1 and 2 is when the most pressure is on the home team, buts get tight. For the lower seed, games 1 and 2 have the least pressure. You want to play the least pressure games on the road. Both teams have no idea what the game plan is going to be. Anything can happen, especially game 1. Also, travel is usually easiest prior to game 1 because likely had a few days off. If away team steals 1 of those first 2 games, there is a huge advantage to lower seed. 3 of next 5 games are at home.

Obviously advantage of home court is game 7, although i argue 1-6 is in lower seeds favor. We also assume that a series goes 7 games which neither team wants to do. There is no guarantee there even is a game 7.
I 100% agree with this. There is a tremendous amount of pressure on the home team to with BOTH of the first two games. The visiting team is playing loose and easy with house money and have less pressure. Their only pressure is to try to snag one victory if possible. But if the visiting team loses both, it's not the end of the world.

Obviously having a game 7 at home is a huge advantage (unless you are the Suns). I think if Suns have to go to a 7th game, they are screwed regardless of where they play. Booker often decides to go into some kind of hibernation mode due to some undisclosed injury from being relentlessly hacked with no call from the previous 6 games. rant over.
 

Mainstreet

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If the away team can steal one of the first two games, I always thought the seven game format favored the away team.
 

Peter Sheldon

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It would be insane due to travel, but he fairer way to do it is have the games keep alternating courts.
home, away, home, away...

Knicks are pissed because they see their number 2 seed as having an unfavorable first round opponent. (not sure why).
Maybe have the best teams choose who their opponent will be. I think Timberwolves are pissed at outcome as well.
They'd welcome being able to choose first round opponent. They worked hard to get the 3 seed and wind up facing their biggest nightmare. Reminds me of all the years Spurs spanked our butts.
 

Covert Rain

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I seem to remember home court wins 70% of the time…ish?!? However, this year was weird. During the regular season it was way down. Not sure how that will translate in playoffs.
 

Suns_fan69

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I don't necessarily disagree with any of your observations, but I also don't know how else to structure the series to effectively give homecourt advantage to the higher seed. I'd argue 2-3-2 format they used to have for the finals was even worse.
 

AzStevenCal

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...Maybe have the best teams choose who their opponent will be. I think Timberwolves are pissed at outcome as well.
They'd welcome being able to choose first round opponent. They worked hard to get the 3 seed and wind up facing their biggest nightmare. Reminds me of all the years Spurs spanked our butts.
That sounds fun, let's go with that.
 
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NashDishesDimes

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I don't necessarily disagree with any of your observations, but I also don't know how else to structure the series to effectively give homecourt advantage to the higher seed. I'd argue 2-3-2 format they used to have for the finals was even worse.
Agreed, i dont know either, alternating home and away 1-1-1… would seem odd. As gimicky as it sounds i almost like the 3 highest seeds should be able to pick opponent, that would provide advantage to the higher seeds
 
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NashDishesDimes

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I seem to remember home court wins 70% of the time…ish?!? However, this year was weird. During the regular season it was way down. Not sure how that will translate in playoffs.
Well a huge portion of that is because the higher seed, in turn tbe better team, gets home court. I dont think that explains home court being the advantage
 

Covert Rain

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Well a huge portion of that is because the higher seed, in turn tbe better team, gets home court. I dont think that explains home court being the advantage
There are many teams typically separated by just a few games often in the playoffs. The HC team usually wins those even when the teams are that evenly matched. Typically only the top couple seeds have a huge difference from the top to the bottom. Naturally when one conference is top heavy that throws that off. What is interesting is I looked it up for REGULAR season and this season is a huge anomaly.

NBA teams went 668-562 at home this season. That would make the home court winning percentage is the worst home-court mark in league history. I just don't know how much stock I put in that because the playoffs are always a different beast. This should be an interesting playoffs.
 

Phrazbit

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I can dig up the stats later, but the Suns have won less than 5% of their series as the road team than they've won over 60% as the home team.

Home court matters, dramatically.

We're losing because we're the inferior team, the record doesn't lie.
 
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NashDishesDimes

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I can dig up the stats later, but the Suns have won less than 5% of their series as the road team than they've won over 60% as the home team.

Home court matters, dramatically.

We're losing because we're the inferior team, the record doesn't lie.
I mean sure but theres other factors in there. If you have home court youre also the higher seed and likely the better team so i dont think that tells the whole story
 
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