The Market (2022-2026)

[Yuma]

I've been keeping an eye on them too but haven't pulled the trigger yet. UI (Ubiquiti) is another that I've been eying. Both seemed like they got over sold a bit.

I've been a little hesitant to move more money out of cash though lately with the way the market has been basically barcoding the last few month. Taking the 3.5% or so a month over sideways action hasn't felt like the worst move. Then I also have plenty of cash on hand for if we finally get our overdue recession and a bit of a market reset.

Me too. I have a bond fund that pays 11 percent monthly. The rest in cash. If you don't want to play AI, it's tough. So many companies are investing in it. So you play a defensive stock, and find out they have a percentage of their money in AI. You almost cannot avoid it.

 

[Devilmaycare]

Me too. I have a bond fund that pays 11 percent monthly. The rest in cash. If you don't want to play AI, it's tough. So many companies are investing in it. So you play a defensive stock, and find out they have a percentage of their money in AI. You almost cannot avoid it.

Which bond fund is payout out that much?

 

[Yuma]

Which bond fund is payout out that much?

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[Yuma]

I have this weird stock. It only pays dividends once a year. It's EMPB.

I bought 100 shares based on a video of it's founder:

The creator and founder of the Efficient Market Portfolio Plus ETF (EMPB) is Wayne Penello, founder, president, and CEO of NextGen EMP. He created the fund and its underlying quantitative strategy to help small equity investors manage downside risk and capture market alpha.

In a nutshell, it's a hedge fund in ETF form. So far I have owned it in up and down markets. When the stock market goes up, it goes up. When the stock market goes down, it goes up. It doesn't rocket way up or down. Just steady Eddie. I thought about putting more cash into it, except for two things. It's fairly new, I believe it was founded 2024, and there's not huge volume in it. It's AUM is only 23.94 MILLION. only 720K shares outstanding. Just watching it so far. Check out these splits:

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[Folster]

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I'd be careful. That fund has had a negative total return since inception in 2022 due to price decay. Yield is only half the story. I'm always wary of anything yielding significantly more than the risk free rate.

 

[Yuma]

I'd be careful. That fund has had a negative total return since inception in 2022 due to price decay. Yield is only half the story. I'm always wary of anything yielding significantly more than the risk free rate.

I have been watching for NAV errosion and so far so good. I have had some weekly pay ETFs and the NAV errosion was huge. So far price has been mirroring market ups and downs.

 

[Russ Smith]

So is todays big drop just because they want the fed to cut rates and they're actually closer to raising than cutting, or is still concern about Ai spending?

Warsh came out and said he thinks the fed needs to be ready to raise rates if things keep going this way, 2 other members of the Fed agreed. I don't think they do it today I think they hold firm but I'm quite surprised the DOW is basically down 1000 points. WIth the big recent selloff I sort of figured todays downside was baked in and the market would go sideways until the actual announcement but it's tanking across the board.

I'm assuming something leaked and insiders reacted to that and now everyone else is but I can't imagine what would leak to cause this, if they hold pat seems like massive overreaction. So are they going to raise rates today?

 

[Russ Smith]

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Yahoo finance says the 1 year return on it is -6% so if you're getting 11% are you actually getting 5 after the loss in share price or is the 11 after removing that loss?

If it's 11 after the share price loss that's a great value but I suspect you really only got 5% the last year?

 

[Russ Smith]

no rate hike fed holds steady hints they will raise next time.

Nasdaq and S&P largely recover DOW still down 700 off the low of nearly 1000 off

 

[Russ Smith]

Wow markets absolutely tanked in the last 30 minutes. DOW closed down over 1100, Nasdaq was green closd down 433, 1.75%.

Not clear but my guess is in the comments when they made it clear 3 members of the Fed wanted to raise the rates, the markets didn't like it.

 

[elindholm]

I have this weird stock. It only pays dividends once a year. It's EMPB.

I bought 100 shares based on a video of it's founder:

The creator and founder of the Efficient Market Portfolio Plus ETF (EMPB) is Wayne Penello, founder, president, and CEO of NextGen EMP. He created the fund and its underlying quantitative strategy to help small equity investors manage downside risk and capture market alpha.

In a nutshell, it's a hedge fund in ETF form. So far I have owned it in up and down markets. When the stock market goes up, it goes up. When the stock market goes down, it goes up. It doesn't rocket way up or down. Just steady Eddie. I thought about putting more cash into it, except for two things. It's fairly new, I believe it was founded 2024, and there's not huge volume in it. It's AUM is only 23.94 MILLION. only 720K shares outstanding. Just watching it so far. Check out these splits:

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It has a huge management fee, so it would need to overperform the market substantially to justify its cost.

In general, I'd steer clear of anything that says its strategy is to "capture alpha." That's just a fancy way of saying "beat the market." Well duh, everyone wants to beat the market, that's not a strategy. But "capture alpha" sounds cooler and lures people in.

Right now the only alpha that's being captured is by the fund manager, who is pocketing a few million per year even with that small AUM number.

 

[Folster]

It has a huge management fee, so it would need to overperform the market substantially to justify its cost.

In general, I'd steer clear of anything that says its strategy is to "capture alpha." That's just a fancy way of saying "beat the market." Well duh, everyone wants to beat the market, that's not a strategy. But "capture alpha" sounds cooler and lures people in.

Right now the only alpha that's being captured is by the fund manager, who is pocketing a few million per year even with that small AUM number.

I didn't look into that one until you mentioned it. 2.21% is wild for an ETF, even if actively managed. Cathie Wood's ARKK is high but only .75%. by comparison. It only started in 2024 so it's hard to make a judgement about performance, but it's predictably underperforming a total US market ETF.

 

[Yuma]

I was interested in the concept. I don't have enough money to be a hedge fund member, but this was a poor man's entry into that realm. So far it has out performed the etfs I joined at similar times. Even when I minus out the 2.21% fee, I am still ahead. It has been super consistent through all Trump's pump and dump moves. It's small, and I am worried there's not a liquid enough market to get out if I put a significant amount in.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Always interesting to have a doomsday Suns crossover event happen in the finance forum.

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[Dr. Jones]

Housing Market financial reporting:

Comparing 2023 to 2026:
Lennar, one of the largest builders in the country, has dropped its average selling price from $511,000 to $377,000. That is a 26% collapse
D.R. Horton, THE largest, went from $416,000 to $366,000 (12.7%)

Not great stuff there folks. Not totally sure if this is just a correction to pre-pandemic levels or the signal of a market collapse. But if you are in the market to buy a home..... There are very motivated sellers out there.

Only one of the top 10 home builders in America is reporting an avg selling price increase from 2025 to 2026 and that just happens to be the Luxury Home builder Toll Brothers.

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[Devilmaycare]

Housing Market financial reporting:

Comparing 2023 to 2026:
Lennar, one of the largest builders in the country, has dropped its average selling price from $511,000 to $377,000. That is a 26% collapse
D.R. Horton, THE largest, went from $416,000 to $366,000 (12.7%)

Not great stuff there folks. Not totally sure if this is just a correction to pre-pandemic levels or the signal of a market collapse. But if you are in the market to buy a home..... There are very motivated sellers out there.

Only one of the top 10 home builders in America is reporting an avg selling price increase from 2025 to 2026 and that just happens to be the Luxury Home builder Toll Brothers.

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I think we're at the start of a correction. A lot of people are going to find out that their $2m house that's average isn't really a $2m house. We need it to happen to make things more affordable for the younger generations.

And there might be very motivated sellers out there, but I'm not sure I'd want to be a buyer yet. Even at these discounts I think you could end up holding the bag and you're going to be better off waiting a bit longer.