The Hunter Greene conundrum: My 2026 fantasy baseball draft lessons

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I’ve always wished I’d done a comprehensive review of my drafts before the season started. I could see what I thought might work and then compare it to what actually happened once the season ended. Maybe I’d learn a few things along the way.

But somehow, I never got around to doing it. Those successes (and many more failures) went mostly undocumented.

But it’s never too late to stop procrastinating!

So at the risk of public humiliation down the road … here are my self-reviews for my 2026 fantasy baseball teams (in chronological order of drafting).

Arizona Fall League draft-and-hold


(15-team Roto, 50 round slow draft)

Ronald Acuña Jr. fell to me with the eighth overall pick in Round 1, a great value for mid-February − before he put on a show in the World Baseball Classic. If it weren’t for Shohei Ohtani existing, Acuña might be my pick for NL MVP this year. From there, the offense looks pretty good with Cal Raleigh in the second round, CJ Abrams in the fourth and Freddie Freeman in the fifth.

The problem here is going to be pitching. My first two starters were Hunter Greene and Spencer Strider. My first closer was Carlos Estevez. Ugh.

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Though I really liked getting Jakob Marsee, Robbie Ray, Xavier Edwards, Daulton Varsho and Trevor Rogers in Rounds 10-14, the draft analyzer gave me a C grade. I concur.

Best pick: Kodai Senga, Round 21

Worst pick: Spencer Strider, Round 6

LABR AL


(12-team AL-only live Roto auction)

There’s a ton of injury risk on this team, but I sure do like what it could become with a reasonable amount of health over the course of the season.

Yordan Alvarez and Junior Caminero give me a nice power floor. And I’ll always be lured by the swan song of Byron Buxton’s ceiling. I was also thrilled to get rookie Royals catcher Carter Jensen for $13; hope he plays every day like he should. And this won’t be the first time I dream on Coby Mayo breaking out.

The pitching could be dynamite with just a little luck on injuries. Kyle Bradish and Jacob deGrom lead the staff with Gerrit Cole a $7 injury stash. An early theme for the season: I appear to be light on saves. Overall grade: B+.

Best pick: Giancarlo Stanton $6

Worst pick: Jackson Holliday $16?

LABR NL


(12-team NL-only live Roto auction)

Watching the bidding go crazy right off the bat in the AL auction, I might have subconsciously decided to be more aggressive in the NL. After Paul Skenes went for $35 and Cristopher Sanchez for $30, I landed Dodgers starters Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto for a total of $42. And Kyle Schwarber felt like a bargain at $27. Throw in another $27 for Bryce Harper and I should’ve probably taken a little break.

But I just didn’t see a whole lot of bargains materializing. In the end, there always seemed to be someone with a little more money bidding on the players I wanted – which explains the catching tandem of Kiebert Ruiz and Dalton Rushing. Also, Jonah Tong and Matt Svanson on the pitching staff. And a last-ditch $2 dart on Charlie Condon for my corner infield spot.

The offense could be good, but the pitching (including five of my six reserves) is a collective mess. Overall grade: C

Best picks: Ramon Laureano $13, Kodai Senga $8

Worst pick: Luis Robert $19?

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TGFBI (The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational)


(15-team Roto slow draft)

This draft began the day after LABR and continued through crunch time for Sports Weekly’s fantasy issue, making it somewhat difficult to keep up with the flow. I loved my first three hitters from the No. 13 spot, though: Kyle Tucker, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Yordan Alvarez.

But once again, taking Hunter Greene as my first pitcher before knowing the full extent of his injury was a huge misfire – especially with Cole Ragans, Freddy Peralta, Logan Webb and Max Fried still available. As the draft continued and details on Greene’s elbow emerged, I focused a bit more on my pitching staff. Maybe Tanner Bibee, Andrew Abbott and Casey Mize pick up the slack.

As in NL LABR, I’m pairing Nico Hoerner with Xander Bogaerts up the middle. Perhaps Kyle Manzardo and Coby Mayo will give the offense more power. Overall grade: C-.

Best pick: Backing up Trevor Megill (Round 8) with Abner Uribe (Round 10)

Worst pick: Hunter Greene, Round 4

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Tout Wars NL


(12-team NL-only live Roto auction)

Tout Wars is probably my favorite draft every year, partly because it’s held in New York City and partly because I don’t have any responsibilities other than just showing up. The auction room is intimate and there are no distractions.

This time, I actually had a specific plan coming in. I told Jeff Winick (who’s in AL LABR and AL Tout) the night before I was prepared to push Paul Skenes up to $40 because he was the best NL starter by a wide margin. In the draft room, I went to $40 and the bidding stopped. Check. Getting Sandy Alcantara as my second starter for $13 seemed like a good deal. And then the strategy kicked in.

My idea was to have Skenes give me a solid base in ERA and WHIP. Get two closers and be strong in saves. Then use the league’s lack of an innings minimum to put the rest of my bankroll toward hitting. By picking up injured starters Justin Steele ($3), Corbin Burnes ($2) and yes, Hunter Greene ($6), I could backfill my staff with placeholders and reserves to keep my head above water until they returned. If they don’t fully make it back, I still have the option of going all-in on ratios and saves. (Unlike in previous years, no one in this draft completely punted starting pitching.)

Trea Turner, Teoscar Hernandez, Kyle Stowers and Drake Baldwin formed the core of my offense. But I was also happy with Brandon Lowe, Alec Bohm and Luis Garcia in the low-to-mid teens. And I even saved enough to get Brett Baty, Owen Caissie and Konnor Griffin late. (Additional injuries to Stowers and Pavin Smith could complicate things though …) Overall grade: Dare I say, A

Best picks: Pete Fairbanks/Emilio Pagan for $24 total

Worst pick: Griffin at $15 if he isn’t promoted soon

FSGA (Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association)


(14-team live Roto draft)

Holding the fourth overall pick, Jose Ramirez, Juan Soto and Ronald Acuña were all on the table. Despite Ramirez tweaking his shoulder on a slide in one of his final spring training games, he was the choice – with the lack of depth at third base the deciding factor.

This was an offense-heavy team from the start with five of the first six picks being hitters. The pitching isn’t too bad with Logan Gilbert, Nick Pivetta, Brandon Woodruff and Robbie Ray leading the way. However, finding closers continued to be an issue, especially after passing on Aroldis Chapman in Round 6 in favor of Byron Buxton. That meant another team with Estevez as the primary saves option … and a mish-mash of darts for a second closer.

That’s an OK strategy in early drafts, but a riskier one little more than a week from opening day. Overall grade: B-.

Best pick: Ivan Herrera, Round 14

Worst pick: Nico Hoerner, Round 5

Epilogue​


Obviously, it’s hard to draw any immediate conclusions from the draft results after less than a week of actual games. But just reinforcing the rationale behind those decisions while they’re still fresh is something all fantasy managers should consider doing.

Looking back, there were some players I overvalued from the start – with Greene, Hoerner and Estevez at the top of the list. However, Greene may eventually end up being underrated if his recovery goes smoothly and puts up a decent second half.

My tolerance for injury risk was also a recurring theme. Health outcomes can be so random from year to year, but I think I’d prefer a little more safety heading into the 2027 season.

That is, if there is a 2027 season. All the more reason to savor this one.

Steve Gardner writes about fantasy baseball, among other things, for USA TODAY Sports. Feel free to skewer him about his drafts on X @SteveAGardner or on Bluesky @steveagardner.bsky.social.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Fantasy baseball draft lessons: Don't make the same mistakes next year


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