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After falling five wins short of back-to-back ambitions, the Oklahoma City Thunder return to square one along with the rest of the league. Enjoying spotless roster continuity over the last few years, they're about to go through some roster shakeups around the complimentary pieces.
Such is life in the NBA. You can't have the same group of guys together forever. Eventually, locker rooms change. New cast of characters shows up. Approaching a fork on the road, the Thunder might need to ship off some familiar faces — both for basketball and financial reasons.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are about to balloon OKC's payroll for the foreseeable future. The two-time MVP winner will soon start his next megadeal. Meanwhile, Williams and Holmgren are about to start their contract extensions they signed last summer fresh off an NBA championship.
Because of that, the Thunder could ship out some role players. One is Isaiah Joe. He has two years, $22.6 million left on his current contract — with a 2027-28 team option. Let's lay out the case for why OKC should and shouldn't shop the 26-year-old:
Why the Thunder should trade Joe
This was supposed to be the year. After fading under the bright lights for years, this was supposed to be Joe's redemption arc. Finally, he helped out the Thunder in the NBA playoffs. Not just in the regular season. One of the best 3-pointer shooters finally saw his outside jumper fall in high-leverage moments. Nope. Instead, it was more of the same. The 26-year-old slowly faded away. He averaged just 4.8 points in OKC's playoff quest this time. By the end of it, he couldn't see the floor.
Sigh. That's brutal. Joe had a career season. He averaged a career-best 11.1 points. He shot an impressive 42.3% from 3 on six attempts. Only four other qualified NBA players reached those numbers last year. Juggling injuries all year, OKC added more to his plate than in previous seasons. And he held his own. Even on defense, he showed more technique on that side of the floor.
All that's sweet in the regular season. But at this point, the Thunder have graduated beyond caring about the regular season. Instead, they needed guys to step up in the NBA playoffs. By the end of this year's run, it was obvious Joe couldn't help out Gilgeous-Alexander as OKC tried to muster up a decent offense with Williams and Ajay Mitchell out.
Don't get me wrong — Joe is one of OKC's best success stories. After a forgettable two years in Philadelphia, the Thunder added him on waivers. In four seasons, they helped him become one of the league's best outside shooters and helped with their championship run. Talk about a bargain deal. He's one of their endless examples of developmental success stories. And now has a spot in the NBA for the foreseeable future because of it.
But all good things come to an end. At this point, Joe is who he is. He'll help you out in the regular season. But it's impossible to count on him in the NBA playoffs. The Thunder already have a couple of guys who you can say the opposite for in Mitchell and Jared McCain. That could make the sharpshooter suddenly expendable if the right deal comes long to stock up some of OKC's draft capital.
Why the Thunder should keep Joe
The playoffs are what they are. Sure. But there's value in what Joe brings as a regular-season machine. He's played 70-plus games in all four seasons with the Thunder. He's steadily been one of the best bench outside shooters. Lineups with Gilgeous-Alexander are killer. The advanced metrics love what the 26-year-old brings to the table. Surely you can't just ship him off just because he's bad for like 20% of OKC's marathon year, right?
The Thunder have been an NBA win machine the last two years with 60-plus wins. Joe's emergence has played a part in that. He helps the second unit run its thing on offense. There's a reason why the plus-minus dropoff isn't humongous when Gilgeous-Alexander is off the floor. Even with a recent Game 7 loss on their floor, homecourt advantage still fundamentally matters. He helps OKC stay atop the standings by being super reliable.
Also, let's not ignore the fact that Joe had a career year. The 26-year-old is at the peak of his powers. Sure, the Thunder would be selling high. But there's no guarantee what you get back is anywhere near as impactful as he is. Outside shooting remains a high commodity in the NBA. That's an evergreen statement. So it'd be silly for the Thunder to ship away one of their best outside shooters — especially since offense is the side of the ball that ultimately cost OKC a chance at a championship.
I understand that the Thunder need to be more careful with their salary cap figures, but trading away Joe would be jumping the shark. You don't trade away talent in a win-now window to save a few bucks. The whole point of being an NBA owner is to be in OKC's shoes right now. This is likely the best era of NBA hoops they'll have. Shortchanging them by removing an important piece to their depth would be a slap to the face of the fanbase.
Final verdict
Of course, you always make a deal if it's there. But there are more reasons to keep Joe than to trade him. He's a regular-season machine that helps the Thunder put up points in a flurry. His best basketball could still be ahead of him. He's a playoff shrinker, sure, but that only accounts for a small percentage of a season. You need guys to help all year. Your entire bench can't be occupied by guys who load manage in the regular season and then let it rip in the NBA playoffs. Alex Caruso kinda already has that designated spot.
I think there's still a role for Joe to occupy on the Thunder. And it's not like he makes this crazy, bloated salary. The cost-cutting measure just wouldn't justify the talent loss. Guys who shoot 40% from 3 on decent volume just don't grow on trees. If there's a line of contenders who'd gladly take him on, then perhaps OKC should hold off on any potential moves. Let's run it back unless there's more to gain from a potential deal than just saving ownership's pockets.
This article originally appeared on OKC Thunder Wire: The arguments for why OKC Thunder should, shouldn't trade Isaiah Joe
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