Taking a Round 1 Tight End

Harry

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Every year some draft forecast has the Cards taking a round 1 TE. This year it’s PFF. Heaven knows they have lacked one. Some TE is always the guy who will transform any offense he joins. Many of these guys disappear entirely. Historically these TEs rarely have any significant impact. There are 2 reasons this happens. The first is that few offenses really make extensive use of the tight end. It would be valid to observe that more teams today do use the TE, especially as they have found opposing teams often have trouble covering TEs. Still more often than not, teams have trouble integrating a TE as a major factor.

The second issue with TEs is that they are very hard to evaluate. Think about it this way. If NFL teams, made up of the best of the best, can’t cover TEs, what do you think happens in college? Rarely do they face 2 quality CBs, let alone a quality 3rd CB. Opponents could use a safety, some NFL teams do. In the NFL safeties are often as fast as CBs. In college this is less frequently the case. So, often the TE is covered by a slower defensive player or a less agile cover person. This personnel gap often causes TEs to have some great games when they are poorly defended. Scouts rarely see a player in every game except on film. If they catch the big game it’s bound to impact their evaluation regardless of their evaluation of the cover guys.

The last 5 years of TE drafting should be enough to convince most people how ineffective this strategy is.

2020 None
2019 TJ Hockenson
Noah Fant
2018 Hayden Hurst
2017 OJ Howard
2016 None

This is not to say Pitts is not a capable TE. Teams defending the Gators had to cover near 1000 yard receiver Kadarius Toney. Additionally the Gators could put on the field an astonishing 12 other pass catchers, aside from Toney and Pitts, who had more than 100 yards receiving. This was a hard passing game to defense. Pitts was good but he had a great deal of help.

I’m certain some team will take Pitts in round 1. He should be a decent receiver, but somewhat less effective, though willing, as a blocker. I just doubt he will be an an impact player.
 

JohnnyCakes

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Johnny McWilliams, Leonard Pope, Rob Housler, Troy Niklas, signing Freddie Jones, Signing Todd heap, Et al. All duds.

The team has had more production from the late round draft and bums off the waiver wire. Finally we have a young TE in Dan Arnold that has a bonified rapport with his QB. Dont let that slip away. This team has too many other needs. This would make as much sense as drafting a fullback.
 

Snakester

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I wouldn't draft a TE in the first round either. Like you showed they are not usually worth such a high pick. In this draft we need to pick a future pro bowler preferably one of OL, WR, CB or DL.
 

Buckybird

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Great post Harry. Let me add reason #2 why we shouldn’t even consider it from the team perspective. Kliffs offense in the passing game isn’t used that often anyway. Outside of 1 season at Tech (Amaro) it’s a WR offense.
 

Vacard

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Round one should be wide receiver. We need another wide out more then anything. Even more then cb which can be secured in the later rounds.
 

Minski

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Round one should be wide receiver. We need another wide out more then anything. Even more then cb which can be secured in the later rounds.

Before I would have agreed with you and I would only be tempted in round 1 if one of the top 2 guys fell to us. But, with such a strong FA WR group who have proven they can get open in the NFL, I would go that route and take a too FA WR.

Also I know RB is not the done thing in round 1 anymore but surely the best RB in the draft would be worth a #1 to our offence? I wouldn’t care when they were taken if we could regularly rely on him getting 1st downs in short yardage and being a guy who makes Ds worry about and scheme for?
 

Dan H

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Before I would have agreed with you and I would only be tempted in round 1 if one of the top 2 guys fell to us. But, with such a strong FA WR group who have proven they can get open in the NFL, I would go that route and take a too FA WR.

Also I know RB is not the done thing in round 1 anymore but surely the best RB in the draft would be worth a #1 to our offence? I wouldn’t care when they were taken if we could regularly rely on him getting 1st downs in short yardage and being a guy who makes Ds worry about and scheme for?

Trade down for an extra 3, grab Etienne.
 

Vacard

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Before I would have agreed with you and I would only be tempted in round 1 if one of the top 2 guys fell to us. But, with such a strong FA WR group who have proven they can get open in the NFL, I would go that route and take a too FA WR.

Also I know RB is not the done thing in round 1 anymore but surely the best RB in the draft would be worth a #1 to our offence? I wouldn’t care when they were taken if we could regularly rely on him getting 1st downs in short yardage and being a guy who makes Ds worry about and scheme for?
Entienne might be there at the 16th spot, and that’s not an overdraft. We are a rushing team, led the league in it for 12 weeks. We do need some weapons for Murray, Kirk, Punished-FITZ, and Isabella won’t cut it
 

juza76

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Entienne might be there at the 16th spot, and that’s not an overdraft. We are a rushing team, led the league in it for 12 weeks. We do need some weapons for Murray, Kirk, Punished-FITZ, and Isabella won’t cut it
But Etienne has the body type to be a situational player
If it we spend a first round pick for him i would be extremely disappointed
 

BritCard

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I wouldn't draft a TE this class. It's not a good class, we don't have a lot of picks and the TE room we have is adequate. We could make much better use of what we have but the scheme doesn't allow for it. Both Arnold and Williams have more yards in them than this scheme allows.

If we can't take advantage of the TE's we have what use would a rookie be? Resign Arnold as an RFA and get the most out of him.
 

Chopper0080

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I wouldn't draft a TE this class. It's not a good class, we don't have a lot of picks and the TE room we have is adequate. We could make much better use of what we have but the scheme doesn't allow for it. Both Arnold and Williams have more yards in them than this scheme allows.

If we can't take advantage of the TE's we have what use would a rookie be? Resign Arnold as an RFA and get the most out of him.
I have no idea where you get that this TE class is not a good one.
 

AZman5103

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Something to consider. Ja'Marr Chase is actually looking like he has an outside shot at being available at 16.

If that were to happen you run to the podium. He and Hopkins would be great.

I really really doubt it happens. I think he is gone no later than 6th.
 

Chopper0080

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If that were to happen you run to the podium. He and Hopkins would be great.

I really really doubt it happens. I think he is gone no later than 6th.
Recent history shows that no WR has been taken in the top 10 since 2017. Corey Davis and Mike Williams. None in 2016. It was more common place from 2011 to 2015 where a WR was drafted in the top 10 in every draft.

So, what changed? Well, the high school and college games really shifted causing an influx to talent to be used at the WR position. Also, a ton of absolute busts were taken from 2011 to 2015 and then that was repeated in 2017. Teams a placing less emphasis on using top 10 picks at WR because of the depth of the position (players available top of round 2) and a higher priority being placed at other positions as top 10 players.

Let's look at 2021.
Jacksonville - no.
New York Jets - not at 2, maybe if they trade back.
Miami - maybe.
Atlanta - no.
Cincy - probably not.
Philadelphia - maybe.
Detroit - maybe.
Chicago - probably not.
Denver - no.
Dallas - no.
NY Giants - probably not.
San Francisco - no.
LA Chargers - maybe.
Minnesota - no.
New England - maybe.

So, of the top 15 teams, there are 6 teams which are absolute "no's". 12 teams with some sort of QB questions. 7 teams with OL needs. 7 teams with CB needs. 8 teams with EDGE player needs. So, if teams favor Devonta Smith's dominant year, Jaylen Waddle's athleticism, and Kyle Pitts freak athleticism...Chase could (though not likely) be the 4th pass catcher off the board.
 

Chopper0080

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I read somewhere he ran 4.66, but in the tape he looks much more faster, like a 4.45 guy
I have also heard there are concerns about how athletic he is. Also, his size is not special. He opted out so no recent film and none without Joe Burrow. There are plenty of ways to over-analyze Chase and not having a combine could hurt him more than other players.
 

BritCard

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I have no idea where you get that this TE class is not a good one.

Currently there's only Pitts ranked in round 1. In past years there have been 2 or 3 1st round worthy TE's. That constitutes a good class.

After Pitts you have Friermuth and Jordan with Round 2 grades. Then a bunch of guys with round 3 to 5 grades.

That's an average at best class with the drop from TE1 to TE4 being about 100 draft positions. And I still think Pitt's is more a big WR than a TE.
 

TaylorSwift

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If that were to happen you run to the podium. He and Hopkins would be great.

I really really doubt it happens. I think he is gone no later than 6th.

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

Reminds me of Steve Smith Sr
 

DVontel

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Recent history shows that no WR has been taken in the top 10 since 2017. Corey Davis and Mike Williams. None in 2016. It was more common place from 2011 to 2015 where a WR was drafted in the top 10 in every draft.

So, what changed? Well, the high school and college games really shifted causing an influx to talent to be used at the WR position. Also, a ton of absolute busts were taken from 2011 to 2015 and then that was repeated in 2017. Teams a placing less emphasis on using top 10 picks at WR because of the depth of the position (players available top of round 2) and a higher priority being placed at other positions as top 10 players.

Let's look at 2021.
Jacksonville - no.
New York Jets - not at 2, maybe if they trade back.
Miami - maybe.
Atlanta - no.
Cincy - probably not.
Philadelphia - maybe.
Detroit - maybe.
Chicago - probably not.
Denver - no.
Dallas - no.
NY Giants - probably not.
San Francisco - no.
LA Chargers - maybe.
Minnesota - no.
New England - maybe.

So, of the top 15 teams, there are 6 teams which are absolute "no's". 12 teams with some sort of QB questions. 7 teams with OL needs. 7 teams with CB needs. 8 teams with EDGE player needs. So, if teams favor Devonta Smith's dominant year, Jaylen Waddle's athleticism, and Kyle Pitts freak athleticism...Chase could (though not likely) be the 4th pass catcher off the board.
Eagles, Giants, Dolphins, Patriots, & Lions, I would pin as “most likely”.
 

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