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It’s popular — if not almost obligatory — to criticize Craig Breslow and the job he’s done as chief baseball officer of the Red Sox.
The numbers tell the story: a record that is 11 games under .500 and a position in the basement of the American League East.
Unless the Red Sox execute a second-half turnaround, this season will mark the second time in three years that the Red Sox, under Breslow, have failed to win more games than they lose.
Judged by his team’s on-field performance and disappointing records, Breslow’s tenure has been a failure.
And yet....
Much of what Breslow did last offseason, judged independently, has actually worked out well.
∗ He traded pitchers Brandon Clarke and Richard Fitts to the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for Sonny Gray. Gray has performed as one of the handful of best starters in the American League (9-1, 2.69). Clarke and Fitts have been beset by injuries; Fitts is out for the year and Clarke has yet to appear in a game.
∗ He traded Hunter Dobbins and two minor league pitching prospects for Willson Contreras. Dobbins has been back and forth between the majors and minors. Contreras has been the Red Sox’ best offensive performer, leading the team in virtually every offensive category. He’s potentially under control for two seasons after this at reasonable money.
∗ He signed free agent Ranger Suarez to a five-year, $130 million deal. Suarez, after a rough start to the season, has become a solid No. 2 starter, with a 4-3 record and an ERA of 2.94. The Red Sox are 9-7 in his starts and could easily have a better record had they provided even average run support for the veteran lefty.
Even the one trade for which Breslow has been most criticized — Kyle Harrison, Shane Drohan and David Hamilton sent to Milwaukee for Caleb Durbin, Andruw Monasterio and Anthony Seigler — has looked far better of late. While Harrison has pitched like an All-Star, Durbin has overcome a horrendous first two months to be the team’s best hitter since May 28, Durbin has slashed .330/.355/.612 for an OPS of .966 in his last 30 games. He’s also contributed well above-average defense at third base.
In all, Breslow had his second strong offseason. A year earlier, he had made a trade for Garrett Crochet, landing the team the No. 1 starter they had been lacking, then securing the lefty to a long-term deal. He also struck with the signing of closer Aroldis Chapman, identifying Chapman as an undervalued asset. And, lest we forget, there was the short-term deal with Alex Bregman, which, while an overpay for a year, made sense at the time.
Why, then, are the Red Sox struggling so mightily? The answers are varied.
First, the Red Sox have been beset by injuries. They’ve been without their best starter, Garrett Crochet, and most talented position player, Roman Anthony, for extended periods — two months for Crochet, seven weeks for Anthony. They’ve also been without Trevor Story, who led the team in most offensive categories a year ago, since mid-May. It could be argued that, headed into the season, the three were the most important players on the active roster.
Second, there’s been either regression or underperformance for several regulars: Jarren Duran, Brayan Bello, Carlos Narvaez and Justin Slaten have all taken steps backward. Marcelo Mayer, despite the opportunity, has to date failed to develop as the organization had hoped.
Finally, it was clear last winter and more clear a month later that Breslow didn’t do enough to bolster the offense. After acknowledging last October that the Red Sox needed more slug to their attack, he effectively added just one run-producing bat (Contreras) to the roster.
That inaction haunts Breslow — and the Sox — to this day, with the club languishing in the bottom half of a number of offensive categories. With even league-average production, the Sox would be at least a .500 team rather than one that’s 11 games under.
It also remains to be seen what Breslow’s trade deadline strategy will be, or even if he’ll be allowed to institute one. The first two deadlines under Breslow didn’t yield much. With the first (2024), he seemed unwilling to fully commit to buying because of the team’s position in the standings; a year ago, when they could have used an infusion of talent, Breslow’s acquisitions were lackluster.
Barring a remarkable charge that ends in a postseason spot, the unrest among the Red Sox’ fan base is such that it’s hard to imagine Breslow returning for a fourth season. Principal owner John Henry has made his dissatisfaction clear, if not public. Leashes are notoriously short for lead baseball executives at Fenway Park and it’s unlikely to be any different for Breslow.
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