SpaceX

[Zeno]

Obviously that won't happen, but that won't stop the Musk fanbois from believing it. And then they'll conveniently forget about the promise ten years from now.

SpaceX is now below its IPO price, which should surprise no one. I was quite conifident that it would spike quickly and then drop, but when the spike didn't play out the way I expected on the first trading day, I panicked. Dumb mistake, but there was no way I was going to be holding it for more than a few days. (Holding most of it, that is; I still have a small amount through my other platform that I'm holding onto to avoid getting dinged as a flipper.)

Nearly every IPO is rocky, SpaceX isn’t for the trader it’s for the long term investor. It’s going to be bumpy for a couple of years, some analysts are projecting an $800 target next year while others are projecting the mid $60 range. It’s going to be all over the place before it settles in to anything resembling consistency.

 

[Dr. Jones]

I’ll be really happy to buy in to this in a couple months. Glad I held my powder.

 

[Russ Smith]

Nearly every IPO is rocky, SpaceX isn’t for the trader it’s for the long term investor. It’s going to be bumpy for a couple of years, some analysts are projecting an $800 target next year while others are projecting the mid $60 range. It’s going to be all over the place before it settles in to anything resembling consistency.

IT's true but this one was so obvious everyone called it out pre IPO, it would pop then fall then the lockups start to go it will crash further and then it will get added to indexes and everyone's 401K retirement age fund will buy it pushing it back up.

I will add Elon appears to have a plan B, at the Tesla earnings call today he was asked about possibly merging Tesla and Space X and said we can't talk about stuff like that on an earnings call but the way he did it immediately sparked merger rumors. Wouldn't surprise me at all if he did it to get another pop in the stocks

 

[elindholm]

Nearly every IPO is rocky, SpaceX isn’t for the trader it’s for the long term investor. It’s going to be bumpy for a couple of years, some analysts are projecting an $800 target next year while others are projecting the mid $60 range. It’s going to be all over the place before it settles in to anything resembling consistency.

Totally agree, but, given that, you have to wonder why anyone is buying it at 100+. If you get it at 60 instead of 120, you wind up with twice as many shares.

 

[Finito]

IT's true but this one was so obvious everyone called it out pre IPO, it would pop then fall then the lockups start to go it will crash further and then it will get added to indexes and everyone's 401K retirement age fund will buy it pushing it back up.

I will add Elon appears to have a plan B, at the Tesla earnings call today he was asked about possibly merging Tesla and Space X and said we can't talk about stuff like that on an earnings call but the way he did it immediately sparked merger rumors. Wouldn't surprise me at all if he did it to get another pop in the stocks

Another failing company under the SpaceX umbrella. It’s exactly what he will do.

Tesla missed earnings and the even then the numbers are being propped up cause he’s just buying stuff from one company with another he’s playing a giant shell game.

 

[Russ Smith]

Another failing company under the SpaceX umbrella. It’s exactly what he will do.

Tesla missed earnings and the even then the numbers are being propped up cause he’s just buying stuff from one company with another he’s playing a giant shell game.

We were in the Philippines for 6 weeks and looking at Starlink because the wifi at Lucy's moms house is very slow. Often under 10 mbps, at it's best 25. I was in a store in Dumaguete City that sells it talking to the guys and he said this will work for you but they're also working on gig speed Starlink that'll be out very soon. he says it'll launch by the end of the year in some locations. You have to buy a performance kit which is a new flat dish that's like bomb proof and costs between 1500 and 2500, and currently caps out about 400 Mbps.

So I did a bunch of reading up. They have 10K gen 1 and gen 2 satellites in low earth orbit now, to achieve gig speeds he needs about 100K gen 3 satellites in low earth orbit so 10X what he has now. Astronomers are fighting him tooth and nail because the current system already messes with them and 10x that would be terrible, even the Hubble Space telescope is already being impacted by Starlnk.

then there's something called the Kessler Syndrome which is a theory that with that many satellites it's inevitable they will have collisions and when they do they break up and then you have tons of smaller bits of satellites in low earth orbit making it both likely you have a chain reaction of satellite collisions, and impacting future space flight.

And then the life of a satellite, even Gen 3 is about 5 years and then it comes down and burns up in the earths atmosphere. Scientists say for a 100K satellites you will have dozens of them de orbiting daily that also have to be replaced so they have to launch daily. And it results in about 30 tons of vaporized metal a day in the atmosphere which impacts the ozone layer. They're all engineered to burn up well above say airline traffic but they had one that crashed into a farm in Saskatchewan, it weighed 5 pounds

All of which is a problem when 61 percent of their current revenue comes from Star Link. The more customers they get at just the current speeds, the more satellites they need and the more they need the more the Kessler Syndrome comes into play. Seems like he has a real problem and Elon being Elon he's not listening to his own people telling him that's too many satellites to manage.

 

[Zeno]

Everything Tech related is down, anything that touches AI is getting hammered in the market. Meta, Intel, Nvidia, Google, Apple, Broadcom, Microsoft etc this isn’t an isolated SpaceX problem. If it were isolated to this one company I might be a bit concerned but nothing has changed my feeling that in a few years SpaceX will be one of the most valuable companies on the planet.

 

[Finito]

Everything Tech related is down, anything that touches AI is getting hammered in the market. Meta, Intel, Nvidia, Google, Apple, Broadcom, Microsoft etc this isn’t an isolated SpaceX problem. If it were isolated to this one company I might be a bit concerned but nothing has changed my feeling that in a few years SpaceX will be one of the most valuable companies on the planet.

I don’t see it especially with a new administration coming in. His role in the Trump BS won’t be forgotten and considering he depends so much on government handouts that’s not gonna be good. He flew too close to the Sun.

Nothing about SpaceX makes sense. The numbers and “goals” are so ridiculous it’s comical.

 

[elindholm]

Everything Tech related is down, anything that touches AI is getting hammered in the market. Meta, Intel, Nvidia, Google, Apple, Broadcom, Microsoft etc this isn’t an isolated SpaceX problem.

They're not at all the same, though. All the rest of those companies have been profitable for years, and for most (not all) of them, even though the stock is down recently, it's still way up over the last year or two. SpaceX is years away from being profitable and its stock price is setting new all-time lows almost daily. You can believe in it, but putting it in the same category as the Big Four is pretty far removed from reality.

 

[Dr. Jones]

I’ll be really happy to buy in to this in a couple months. Glad I held my powder.

Still holding..... Still really glad.

 

[Zeno]

I don’t see it especially with a new administration coming in. His role in the Trump BS won’t be forgotten and considering he depends so much on government handouts that’s not gonna be good. He flew too close to the Sun.

Nothing about SpaceX makes sense. The numbers and “goals” are so ridiculous it’s comical.

Tell you what, I am so confident that in 10 years SpaceX we will look back and see that it outgained the S&P 500 over the same period that I am willing to bet you $1000. If I am wrong and SpaceX flops I will give to whatever charity you name, if I am right you will give to the charity I name. 10 years, lets say August 1, 2036--assuming the board even exists then.

I don't base making money on politics you obviously do, as it is your right. I am confident that once the capital that has been spent building up this company is paid off that the profits will roll in, it isn't cheap building up the infrastructure but eventually it will pay for itself, it's just a matter of time, space is the future.

 

[Zeno]

They're not at all the same, though. All the rest of those companies have been profitable for years, and for most (not all) of them, even though the stock is down recently, it's still way up over the last year or two. SpaceX is years away from being profitable and its stock price is setting new all-time lows almost daily. You can believe in it, but putting it in the same category as the Big Four is pretty far removed from reality.

I never said they were the same, I said everything AI touches was down, no matter how large, small, new or old. The entire sector was getting hit, it has bounced back since, including SpaceX having nearly a 16% return on Friday. SpaceX will be volatile for a while just like Tesla was (which didn't turn a profit for 2 years after its IPO yet still managed to return 40X the S&P in its existence).

 

[Finito]

Tell you what, I am so confident that in 10 years SpaceX we will look back and see that it outgained the S&P 500 over the same period that I am willing to bet you $1000. If I am wrong and SpaceX flops I will give to whatever charity you name, if I am right you will give to the charity I name. 10 years, lets say August 1, 2036--assuming the board even exists then.

I don't base making money on politics you obviously do, as it is your right. I am confident that once the capital that has been spent building up this company is paid off that the profits will roll in, it isn't cheap building up the infrastructure but eventually it will pay for itself, it's just a matter of time, space is the future.

Oh god look at this snowflake.

I didn’t make SpaceX a political thing Elon did and to try and say that it won’t play any part in the future of his companies is pretty damn naive especially when his whole thing is government contracts.

Not one single economist in the world that says the SpaceX numbers make sense. Elons companies aren’t really based on numbers they are kinda based on Elon and people believing in him. Wondering what’s gonna happen when people’s opinions turn on him is perfectly natural you’ve already seen it in Tesla.

Your MAGA feelings got hurt and it’s ok. I understand.

 

[Zeno]

Oh god look at this snowflake.

I didn’t make SpaceX a political thing Elon did and to try and say that it won’t play any part in the future of his companies is pretty damn naive especially when his whole thing is government contracts.

Not one single economist in the world that says the SpaceX numbers make sense. Elons companies aren’t really based on numbers they are kinda based on Elon and people believing in him. Wondering what’s gonna happen when people’s opinions turn on him is perfectly natural you’ve already seen it in Tesla.

Your MAGA feelings got hurt and it’s ok. I understand.

I never once insulted you. You started out with “Elon Fan Boys” and brought up Trump, not me.

I am keeping politics out of this. So no bet then?

 

[elindholm]

I never once insulted you. You started out with “Elon Fan Boys” and brought up Trump, not me.

I am keeping politics out of this. So no bet then?

I'd say, take your $1000 and buy 7 more shares. If you're right, you'll come out farther ahead than by trying to collect a bet over the internet.

As of this writing, SpaceX is hovering very near its IPO price of 135. I agree that it will take a while for the market to sort out what it thinks of it. Since its launch (har), most other AI-adjacent stocks (e.g. NVDA, INTC, MU, SNDK, STX) have gone down, so in that sense SPCX has held up well. (AVGO is up, but I didn't look for others.)

 

[Zeno]

I'd say, take your $1000 and buy 7 more shares. If you're right, you'll come out farther ahead than by trying to collect a bet over the internet.

As of this writing, SpaceX is hovering very near its IPO price of 135. I agree that it will take a while for the market to sort out what it thinks of it. Since its launch (har), most other AI-adjacent stocks (e.g. NVDA, INTC, MU, SNDK, STX) have gone down, so in that sense SPCX has held up well. (AVGO is up, but I didn't look for others.)

I have INTC, AVGO, NVDA and lots of other Tech exposure, it was nice to bounce back. The first week of August was very strong overall following a weak July. Just have to hope it keeps up.

I have hit my invested amount goal for SpaceX after buying some more during the dip. While I am a believer in it making me money in the long run I am not a believer in making things overweight in my portfolio. I invest financially not emotionally, I’ve learned that over the years. FOMO and emotional investing end up killing returns as bad as trying to time the market.

As for the bet, I give to charity anyway, might as well either add to a cause I believe in or contribute to a cause important to someone else. No harm in a friendly wager, or at least I thought so.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Zeno would have easily won the bet IMO.

 

[Russ Smith]

Will either bea great story or a big laugh. In the conference call he talked about having a factory on the moon building satellites, not people run but run by robots his Optimus robots and then launched into space by a giant electromagnetic device.

And then last week he said their internal projections have moved up they will reach 1 trillion in revenue by 2030. When somsone asked online you mean in total right he said no, in one year, just revenue 1 trillion by 2030 if we execute. In their announcement they said they had 7.8 billion in revenue. At that rate they would need 128 quarters of the same revenue to hit 1 trillion in a year

 

[Devilmaycare]

I still think that SpaceX could get huge revenue just from compute. It's something they're already making money off and Elon's been really good at getting it setup and running. It's where I think all of the money in AI is going to be too. The models are all converging and are going to become commodities. The money will be made with agents/harnesses and especially compute. I'm looking more to put money that way over the frontier labs.

 

[elindholm]

And then last week he said their internal projections have moved up they will reach 1 trillion in revenue by 2030. When somsone asked online you mean in total right he said no, in one year, just revenue 1 trillion by 2030 if we execute. In their announcement they said they had 7.8 billion in revenue. At that rate they would need 128 quarters of the same revenue to hit 1 trillion in a year

One thing about Musk that will always perplex me is that he can say literally anything and his supporters will believe him. They have no filter for what is more or less credible. If you question them, their response is always "Well he's rich and has smart people working for him, so anything he says is possible."