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The Oklahoma City Thunder will have another week off before their next playoff series. After they swept the Memphis Grizzlies in Round 1, they await the winner between the Denver Nuggets and the LA Clippers.
The Thunder are fresh off one of the more lopsided first-round series in NBA playoff history. Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren were OKC's best players while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander struggled with consistency and saw his scoring dip.
Meanwhile, the Nuggets and Clippers are tied at 2-2. The series will go at least six games with a good chance at a decisive Game 7. Nikola Jokic has played like the best player, but the Clippers have had the better team performances headlined by Kawhi Leonard.
Let's spell out every argument for the Nuggets and Clippers as to why the Thunder should and shouldn't favor a matchup against them in the second round of the NBA playoffs:
The case for the Nuggets
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The Thunder split their four meetings against the Nuggets this season. They started a historic season with a blowout win over Denver in their season opener. The Nuggets then handed OKC its first loss of the season after a 7-0 start as Peyton Watson blocked Gilgeous-Alexander's potential game-tying layup.
Meanwhile, the Thunder hosted the Nuggets for two straight games in March. They blew them out in the first game but lost the second game as Denver scored 140 points with role players hitting their outside shots. The back-to-back was seen as the boiling point for a heated MVP race between Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic.
If the Thunder beat the Nuggets, it'll be because of their depth. They went nine deep in their Round 1 series. They have one of the deepest benches in the NBA. Heck, they won a playoff series against a near-50-win squad with Gilgeous-Alexander having a meh series.
For the Nuggets, that's the complete opposite. They have one of the best starting lineups. Jokic is the NBA's best player. But besides that, not a whole ton left. All five of their starters average nearly 40 minutes. Only Russell Westbrook has played heavy minutes off the bench. The rest of their squad has played marginal minutes.
In an ideal world, the Nuggets win a grueling Game 7, battered and bruised. The Thunder would enter the playoff series refreshed. The playoffs sometimes boil down to a battle of attrition. OKC would have a huge leg up in that department with its rich depth and youth.
The case against the Nuggets
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It's pretty easy to envision a game plan where the Nuggets upset the Thunder. Jokic is the best player on the world and can easily see him win four games by himself by averaging a 35-point triple-double. As long as the three-time MVP winner plays, Denver will always have a chance in any game it plays in.
Throw in Jamal Murray getting hot, and the Nuggets quickly get frightening. He's had an inconsistent season, but could get hot as a scorer. One example of that was the Nuggets' 140-point win over the Thunder. He went off for 34 points in one of their most impressive wins of the season. Not difficult to see the playoff riser has a handful of those types of games in a playoff series.
The Nuggets also have experience. They've won a championship with all five of their starters. Jokic has had more deep playoff runs by himself than anybody on the Thunder roster. If anybody knows what it takes to win at this stage of the postseason, it's them.
The case for the Clippers
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The Thunder have had the Clippers' season for a couple of years. They won all four of their matchups this season. Granted, two were close games. And none were more than by 18 points. The only relevant game of the four was the last one since Leonard played. OKC survived a thriller and stole a game without Williams and Holmgren.
That's exactly how the Thunder could beat the Clippers. They match up perfectly with LA's best players. Williams can body up against Leonard. Meanwhile, Lu Dort, Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso are a nightmare trio against James Harden. Ivica Zubac will have his hands full with Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein.
This could be a grueling throwback series where the final scores will be in the 90s and low 100s. That's right up the Thunder's alley as they own the NBA's best defense and love to play a physical brand of basketball where turnovers generate fastbreak buckets.
The case against the Clippers
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Since the All-Star break, the Clippers have been red-hot. They had the fourth-best net rating since the All-Star break and quickly climbed the standings from a possible play-in tournament team to the fifth seed. LA's ascension aligned with Leonard's return as he slowplayed his workload until he ended the regular season playing his best basketball.
The plan has worked out tremendously. Once thought of as someone whose best years were behind him, the 33-year-old has been LA's best player in their playoff series. Leonard has averaged an efficient 26.5 points through games against the Nuggets. He's back to being a mid-range machine who can push 40 minutes.
Harden has also been one of the three best players in their playoff series. He's averaged 21 points and 9.5 assists. The 35-year-old has had a rejuvenated season and could earn an All-NBA honor. He kept LA afloat while Leonard missed most of the season. Even though he's no longer the league's best scorer, he's still one of the best players in the NBA.
The Clippers are the perfect mix of veteran star players and primed role players. Leonard and Harden have been some of the best players in the league over the last two months. Zubac and Norman Powell have had career seasons. Throw in LA's rich depth of quality role players, it could be a dark horse candidate to make a deep playoff run.
Final verdict
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At this point in the playoffs, there are no easy matchups. Only eight teams remain. The Nuggets and Clippers both bring their challenges for the Thunder. They are veteran squads whose best players have championship pedigree with plenty of deep playoff runs that outnumber OKC's young roster.
That said, the Thunder should prefer the Clippers to move on to Round 2. Leonard and Harden are a scary duo to face, but OKC is equipped with the right perimeter defenders to slow them down. Zubac has had a career season, but Hartenstein is the perfect counterpart against him on the boards and inside the paint.
Meanwhile, Gilgeous-Alexander has dominated LA all season with 31.3 points on 44.4% shooting. He's taken advantage of their handy defenders with 11.3 free-throw attempts. The Clippers could rely on Kris Dunn to slow down the MVP candidate, but his nonexistent shot could keep him off the floor for most of the playoff series.
If they meet the Clippers, the Thunder will need to earn a playoff series win. It'll be a classic series where neither team gives up video game scores. But that's how OKC loves to play. LA is one of the best defenses, but the first seed is better. That's much easier to strategize for than going against Jokic and friends.
This article originally appeared on OKC Thunder Wire: Should Thunder root for the Nuggets or Clippers to advance to Round 2?
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