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Any discussion about Francisco Lindor’s future with the Mets beyond this summer must start with the shortstop’s no-trade clause.
Lindor has 10-and-5 rights. Since he has more than 10 years of service time and has spent the last five-plus years with his current team, he can veto any trade.
This past winter, Brandon Nimmo agreed to waive his no-trade clause when the Mets dealt him to Texas for Marcus Semien, a deal that hasn’t worked out so far for the Mets. Would Lindor be willing to do the same? He declined to comment when asked by both The Athletic and New York Post about it on Sunday.
Suppose Lindor, 32, were open to a trade. Would that be the best decision for the Mets?
Here’s an argument for both sides.
NO
The Mets don’t have a shortstop replacement within the organization. The next-best option internally is Ronny Mauricio. The Mets have prospects that play the position — Elian Peña, Wandy Asigen and Mitch Voit — but they’re all years away in the lower levels of the Mets’ system. It’s possible they could acquire a shortstop back in a trade, but it’s unlikely he would be as good as Lindor has been with the Mets in his career.
Lindor isn’t having a great season so far this year by any means, but let’s not forget who we’re talking about here.
Lindor finished in the top-10 in the MVP race in the National League in each of the last four seasons. In that span, the switch-hitting shortstop has the fourth-highest FanGraphs WAR (25.8) in baseball. In fact, since 2015, the year Lindor debuted with Cleveland, only Mookie Betts and Aaron Judge have a higher fWAR than Lindor (60.4).
The Mets need to be in the business of stocking up on good players as they try to contend next year. When he’s at his best, Lindor is an elite shortstop. Decline is certainly a part of this conversation, but up until this season, Lindor has been durable throughout his career. It’s not like he’s 40 and has been regressing for years. Just last season, Lindor had a 129 wRC+ and .811 OPS over 160 games.
Do the Mets really want to get rid of another fan favorite? Maybe he doesn’t have a perfect relationship with Juan Soto, but winning cures all. That isn’t as big of a story going forward if president of baseball operations David Stearns builds a better team around those two superstars as the organization strives to get back into the playoff picture next year and beyond.
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Even if the Mets wanted to trade Lindor, his value is likely diminished. What would the Mets realistically get back if they traded Lindor and his contract with the way he’s been hurt and underperformed to this point? After this year, Lindor is still owed the final five years of his 10-year, $341 million deal.
And then there’s the looming collective bargaining situation and likely lockout. Is another team really going to want to add that kind of salary when it’s unclear what kind of financial restrictions or penalties are looming next season? That could be reflected in the Mets’ theoretical return.
YES
The Mets’ top priority moving forward needs to be building a roster that maximizes Soto’s prime and contends for championships. Barring a historic turnaround, the Mets will miss the playoffs in both of Soto’s first two seasons in New York. That is an unqualified disaster. To use the word Lindor used multiple times after Sunday’s dreadful loss to end the first half: it’s “unacceptable.”
As New York evaluates its veterans, it could determine that Lindor isn’t part of the best version of this club, both on the field and in the clubhouse. If that’s the case and the Mets want to make a drastic change as part of their reset, then they should move him, get as much back as possible and start fresh.
Clearly, the Mets aren’t handcuffed by sentimentality. Stearns showed this past offseason that he’s willing to dismantle a core and get rid of fan favorites like Pete Alonso and Nimmo.
Lindor is on track to be an all-time Met, but owner Steve Cohen made it clear this spring that the shortstop won’t be named captain. As the Mets build around Soto, maybe Lindor wants a change himself.
The Mets can either flip Lindor for another aging star and absorb a similar heavy contract — a change of scenery candidate — or they can eat money to acquire more top-tier prospect capital in return. Either way, change might be exactly what this organization needs after the way these last few years have gone.
Lindor turns 33 in November. In fairness, with his lengthy stint on the injured list earlier this season, it’s too early to determine that Lindor’s decline is underway. Lindor has been banged up more than ever this year, so that’s why his sample size is much smaller than his teammates’. But Father Time is undefeated, and no matter how consistently productive he’s been previously, this could go down as the beginning of that process.
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It’s clear that Lindor isn’t the same player on defense. Recency bias with his costly error on what should’ve been a game-ending double play on Sunday makes that narrative even stronger. He’s batting .216 with a .671 OPS over 40 games so far this season. Lindor has also made a handful of strange mental mistakes this year.
PREDICTION
The Mets don’t trade Lindor, but they don’t hang up the phone at the trade deadline, either. They should be open to listening to offers on any player not named Soto, Nolan McLean, Carson Benge, A.J. Ewing and Christian Scott. Maybe Zach Thornton is pitching his way into that distinction as well.
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