Setting The Bar - Running Back Edition

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"You can't really know where you are going until you know where you have been."

- Maya Angelou

As it relates to fantasy football, Angelou's famous quote reminds us that it is hard to understand what we need to strive for from each position if we don't know where the bar has been set in previous years or how it was achieved. The second installment of this four-part series will highlight several observations made from analyzing the results of top-12 running backs over the last five seasons - the span during which the NFL has played 17-game seasons.

The first part of this piece will highlight at least one notable observation from reviewing each of the relatively basic counting statistics that are responsible for the overwhelming percentage of fantasy production from running backs. A few of the nuggets at the end of the first section are statements based on what percent of a running back's fantasy production came via touchdown, the passing game or the running game.

The purpose: to inform readers what they need from the running back they draft to be competitive at the position. Not all running backs are created equal, however, so the kind of running back (run-dominant, all-purpose and workhorse) matters. We will go into more detail on that in the second section.

For now, let's focus on some of the more notable findings from my research.

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All observations are from the last five seasons (2021-25). Please click this link to see the numbers that support the statements. For the purposes of this article, we are observing the following PPR scoring rules:

One point per 10 yards rushing or receiving
Six points per rushing or receiving touchdown

• The lowest fantasy point total for a top-five running back over the last five seasons is 257.7 (James Conner, 2021). The lowest fantasy point total for a top-12 running back over the last five seasons is 227 (Alvin Kamara, 2023). Only 18 of the 60 top-12 running backs (30%) over that span have scored at least 300 points, although two have managed 299 (which would increase the percentage to 33.3%). Seventeen of the 60 (28.3%) have scored less than 250 points.
• Of the 60 top-12 finishers at running back, 54 (90%) played at least 15 games. The best finish for a running back who missed at least two games is RB5 (James Conner in 2021 and Raheem Mostert in 2023). Both backs still managed to score at least 18 touchdowns. Alvin Kamara (2021) and Kyren Williams (2023) are the only two backs in the last five seasons to register top-10 finishes despite missing at least four games.
• Of the 60 top-12 finishers at running back, 50 (83.3%) averaged at least four yards per carry. Christian McCaffrey (2025) became the first back in the 17-game era to finish as the overall RB1 in spite of his rushing inefficiency (sub-4.0). Three of the overall RB1s averaged at least 5.4 YPC, while the other two tallied at least 100 receptions.
• Of the 15 running backs to amass at least 300 carries in a season, 12 (80%) have finished inside the top six at their position. Only Jonathan Taylor (13th, 2024) failed to land inside the top seven.
• In 2025, Kenneth Gainwell (114 carries, overall RB16) and RJ Harvey (146, overall RB19) became the first running backs in the 17-game era to finish higher than RB20 with fewer than 150 carries. Jaylen Warren came the closest (finished 20th on 149 carries in 2023) before Gainwell and Harvey broke through.
• The lowest finish from a running back with at least 250 carries is RB23 (Najee Harris, 2023). Harris (RB21 in 2024) and Tony Pollard (RB22 in 2024) are responsible for the only other sub-RB20 finishes over the last five seasons. The common denominator in those outliers? They averaged seven total touchdowns. Those seasons account for half of the six times 250-carry running backs did not score more than eight touchdowns.
• Over that same span, 41 backs have recorded at least 250 rush attempts. The average finish of those backs was RB8 (8.5, to be exact). Thirty-three of them (80.5%) scored at least 10 total touchdowns. Only three of the 41 (7.3%) failed to rush for at least 1,000 yards. Of those 41 running backs, 30 (73.2%) finished no worse than RB12. Twenty of them (48.7%) finished RB6 or higher.
• Twenty-nine running backs crested 1,000 yards rushing on fewer than 250 carries, although Tony Pollard (193 rush attempts in 2022) was the only one to do so on fewer than 207 carries. The average finish of those backs was RB13. Thirty running backs with less than 250 carries registered an RB12 finish or better; only five did so with less than 40 catches. Each of those five managed at least 25 receptions AND scored at least 12 total touchdowns.
• Four running backs have rushed for at least 1,200 yards in the 17-game era and failed to finish inside the top 10 at their position. (Those backs were RB13 Nick Chubb in 2021 - 14 games, RB15 Miles Sanders in 2022, RB13 Jonathan Taylor in 2024 and RB12 Javonte Williams in 2025.) Nevertheless, the average finish for a 1,200-yard rusher is RB5. The common denominator for those four backs was a relative lack of usage in the passing game. Three of the four had no more than 20 catches and none had more than 35. Three of the four missed at least one game as well.
• Five top-12 finishers have failed to reach 800 yards rushing. Of that group, four of them had at least 52 catches. Two had at least 70. All of them had at least 375 yards receiving and three of them scored at least 10 total touchdowns. All five made the cut despite missing at least one game.
• Fourteen of the 16 backs to handle at least 210 carries AND average at least five yards per carry have finished no worse than RB8.
• The lowest finish of the 31 running backs with at least 13 total touchdowns in a season was Gus Edwards' 2023 campaign (RB26 in 2023). Four others (12.9%) finished in RB2 range (RB13-24), meaning 26 (83.9%) of the 31 were no worse than RB12. Of that group, 16 out of a possible 20 (80%) finished as the RB4 or better.
• None of the 13 running backs with at least 90 targets in a season has finished lower than the overall RB3. None of the 24 running backs with at least 75 targets in a season has finished lower than the overall RB16. Context is needed in just about every case as to why they failed to land inside the top 10. Alvin Kamara (RB12) missed four games in 2023 - three due to suspension - and mustered only four touchdowns in 2022 (RB16). Kenneth Gainwell (RB16) handled only 114 carries in 2025, Leonard Fournette (RB12) scored only six touchdowns in 2022, D'Andre Swift (RB15) missed four games in 2021, Breece Hall (RB16) logged only 2029 carries in 2024 and Joe Mixon (2022) missed three games in 2022.
• Twenty-six of the 36 running backs (72.2%) to attract 50 targets in a season finished as a top-12 player at their position. Thirty-four (94.4%) finished inside the top 24.
• Jaylen Warren (RB20 in 2023) is the only one of 23 running backs to finish outside the top 16 at his position in a season in which he recorded at least 60 catches. Thirteen of the 23 (56.5%) finished no worse than the overall RB5.
• Of the possible 25 top-five running backs over the last five seasons, 20 of them (80%) have recorded at least 40 catches.
• Jerick McKinnon (RB20 in 2022) is the only one of 15 running backs (6.7%) over the last five seasons to accumulate 500 receiving yards and fail to finish as a top-12 player at his position.
• Only three of a possible 25 top-five running backs (12%) have fallen shy of 300 yards receiving. The three exceptions each scored at least 15 total touchdowns.
• Of the 18 running backs to score at least five receiving touchdowns in a season, only eight of them (44.4%) have finished between RB10 and RB20.
• Of the 32 top-12 running backs to score at least 20% of their fantasy points via rushing touchdowns, 25 (78.1%) finished no worse than the RB7. It is a group that includes four of the last five overall RB1s.
• Of the 12 top-12 running backs to score at least 10% of their fantasy points via receiving touchdowns, eight (66.7%) have finished no better than RB7. Five (41.7%) of them settled for RB10 or RB11 finishes. Christian McCaffrey (2023, 2025) is responsible for the only two overall RB1 finishes in this group.

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Let's get to the heart of the matter now. What statistical marks do running backs need to hit to be a RB1 (RB1-12)? What marks do they need to reach to finish inside the top five?

For the purposes of this part of the article, I will divide running backs into three distinct groups: the run-dominant back (at least 220 carries and caught less than 40 passes), the all-purpose back (less than 220 carries and caught at least 40 passes) and the workhorse (at least 220 carries and caught at least 40 passes).

The reason for this should be somewhat obvious: the run-dominant back will dwarf the all-purpose back in carries, while the opposite will be true in the passing game. Of course, the workhorse typically has the best of both worlds.

The goal of this is to know exactly what we need from each group of running backs if we want a top-five (or top-12 or even top-24) finish.

The Run-Dominant Back​

Eighteen of the 60 top-12 finishes over the last five seasons have come from running backs who caught 40 or fewer passes. None of them recorded an overall RB1 finish, although Saquon Barkley was the overall RB2 and Derrick Henry the overall RB3 in 2024. The average finish of this group was RB7.

For a top-five finish, the run-dominant back averaged the following:
286 carries
1,446 rushing yards
15 rushing touchdowns
35 targets
29 catches
284 receiving yards
2.0 receiving touchdowns

For a top-12 finish, the run-dominant back averaged the following:
273 carries
1,314 rushing yards
13 rushing touchdowns
41 targets
32 catches
260 receiving yards
2.0 receiving touchdowns

For a top-24 finish, the run-dominant back averaged the following:
238 carries
1,102 rushing yards
9.7 rushing touchdowns
39 targets
31 catches
241 receiving yards
1.2 receiving touchdowns

The All-Purpose Back​

Fourteen of the 60 top-12 finishes over the last five seasons have come from running backs who logged less than 220 carries but caught at least 40 passes. The average finish for this group was RB8. Austin Ekeler (RB2 in 2021 and RB1 in 2022) is responsible for both of this group's best finishes. De'Von Achane (RB5 in 2024) is the only other back from this group to finish inside the top five.

For a top-five finish, the all-purpose back averaged the following:
204 carries
911 rushing yards
10 rushing touchdowns
102 targets
85 catches
654 receiving yards
6.3 receiving touchdowns

For a top-12 finish, the all-purpose back averaged the following:
195 carries
864 rushing yards
7 rushing touchdowns
82 targets
66 catches
426 receiving yards
3.5 receiving touchdowns

For a top-24 finish, the all-purpose back averaged the following:
179 carries
789 rushing yards
5.9 rushing touchdowns
72 targets
58 catches
382 receiving yards
3.1 receiving touchdowns

The Workhorse​

Twenty-eight of the 60 top-12 finishes over the last five seasons have come from running backs who logged at least 220 carries and caught between at least 40 passes. The average finish for this group was RB5. This group contains 17 of the 25 top-five running backs, including four overall RB1s and three overall RB2s.

For a top-five finish, the workhorse averaged the following:
282 carries
1,322 rushing yards
11 rushing touchdowns
80 targets
65 catches
528 receiving yards
3.2 receiving touchdowns

For a top-12 finish, the workhorse averaged the following:
267 carries
1,205 rushing yards
9.3 rushing touchdowns
75 targets
60 catches
476 receiving yards
3.3 receiving touchdowns

For a top-24 finish, the workhorse back averaged the following:
263 carries
1,159 rushing yards
8.6 rushing touchdowns
71 targets
57 catches
437 receiving yards
2.8 receiving touchdowns

Please refer to this chart if you would prefer this information in table form.

An analysis like this isn't complete unless it yields something that managers can use for the upcoming season. Therefore, we will close this piece with a year-by-year average of what a top-five and a top-12 running back produced to see if things are trending up or down.

Click here for that breakdown.


This article originally appeared on The Huddle: Setting The Bar - RBs

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