Setting The Bar - Quarterback Edition

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"You can't really know where you are going until you know where you have been."

- Maya Angelou

As it relates to fantasy football, Angelou's famous quote reminds us that it is hard to understand what we need to strive for from each position if we don't know where the bar has been set in previous years or how it was achieved. The first installment of this four-part series will highlight several observations made from analyzing the results of top-12 quarterbacks over the last five seasons - the span during which the NFL has played 17-game seasons.

The first part of this piece will highlight at least one notable observation from reviewing each of the relatively basic counting statistics that are responsible for the overwhelming percentage of fantasy production from quarterbacks. A few of the nuggets at the end of the first section are statements based on what percent of a quarterback's fantasy production came via touchdown, the passing game or the running game.

The purpose: to inform readers what they need from the quarterback they draft in order to be competitive at the position. Not all quarterbacks are created equal, however, so the kind of quarterback (pocket passer, mobile, dual-threat) matters. We will go into more detail on that in the second section.

For now, let's focus on some of the more notable findings from my research.

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All observations are from the last five seasons (2021-25). Please click this link to see the numbers that support the statements. For the purposes of this article, we are observing the following scoring rules:

One point per 25 yards passing
Four points per passing touchdown
One point per 10 yards rushing
Six points per rushing touchdown
Minus-1 (-1) point per interception

• The lowest fantasy point total for a top-five quarterback over the last five seasons is 331.8 (Dak Prescott, 2025). The lowest fantasy point total for a top-12 quarterback over the last five seasons is 293.7 (Tom Brady, 2022). Fifty-six of the 60 top-12 quarterback finishers (93.3%) over that span have scored at least 300 points.
• Of the 19 quarterbacks to complete at least 400 passes in a season, 17 finished inside the top 12 (89.5%). Derek Carr (2021) and Geno Smith (2024) were the only exceptions. Both finished as QB13.
• Of the 18 quarterbacks to attempt at least 600 passes in a season, 15 finished inside the top 12 (83.3%). Derek Carr (2021), Ben Roethlisberger (2021) and Trevor Lawrence (2021) were the only exceptions.
• None of the 41 quarterbacks to throw for at least 4,000 yards over the last five seasons has finished lower than QB13. The average finish for that group is QB6. Among that group are four QB1s, four QB2s, four QB3s, three QB4s, four QB5s, five QB6s and four QB13s.
• Incidentally, there have been 23 quarterbacks who have finished as the overall QB12 or higher despite not throwing for at least 4,000 yards.
• Of the 26 quarterbacks to throw for at least 30 touchdowns, 25 (96.2%) finished as a QB10 or better. The average finish for that group is QB4. All but two finished as the QB7 or better (92.3%).
• Only two of the 30 quarterbacks (6.7%) to finish as a QB6 or better posted a sub-2.00 TD-to-INT ratio. Lamar Jackson (10.25) was a freakish outlier on the other end - Matthew Stafford's 5.75 last season is the next best mark on the list - but 28 of the 30 finished at 2.4 or better.
• Matthew Stafford (2025), Tom Brady (2021) and Jared Goff (2025) are the only quarterbacks to finish inside the top 10 with fewer than 30 rush attempts. Goff (2022), Kirk Cousins (2021) and Brady (2022) were the only others to land inside the top 12. No other quarterback from the sub-30 group finished higher than QB15.
• Somewhat surprisingly, only 15 of the 19 quarterbacks to exceed 100 rushing attempts finished inside the top 10 (78.9%). However, context is needed. Lamar Jackson's 15th-place finish in 2021 and 14th-place finish in 2022 came in seasons when he only played 12 games. Daniel Jones' 10th-place finish in 2022 came attached to his 15 passing touchdowns. Justin Fields' 17th-place finish in 2023 came as a result of playing 13 games. Without those four "exceptions," the average finish for the other 15 was QB4. Even with those four, it was QB6.
• Of the 18 quarterbacks to run for at least 500 yards, 13 finished no worse than QB9 (72.2%). Kyler Murray (2024) joins the list of the four exceptions in the paragraph above.
• Jaxson Dart (2025) is the only quarterback with at least seven rushing touchdowns to finish outside the top 12, which was due in large part to his playing only 14 games.
• Of the 60 quarterbacks to finish inside the top 12 at their position in a season, only five (8.3%) managed to score less than 60% of their fantasy points via the passing game. Justin Fields (2022) is the only one to score more points as a runner versus a passer. Just 14 of the 60 (23.3%) scored less than 70% of their fantasy points via the passing game.
• Jalen Hurts (58.9% in 2022 and 58.3 in 2023) is the only player to finish inside the top four at his position in a season while scoring less than 60% of his fantasy points via the passing game. Incidentally, Josh Allen (four times) and Lamar Jackson (once) account for the five other times that a top-four quarterback scored less than 70% of their fantasy points via the passing game.
• Four of the last five overall QB1s have scored at least 25% of their fantasy points as a runner (80%). Of the 20 quarterbacks to finish inside the top four at their position in a season, only three scored less than 10% of their fantasy points via the running game (15%). The average run-point percentage of that group (the 20 quarterbacks who finished QB1-4) is 21.2%.
• The average top-five quarterback scored 33.9% of their fantasy points via passing touchdowns. Jalen Hurts (22.6% in 2022 and 23.2% in 2023) is the only player who failed to top 25% in this metric. Sixteen of the 25 quarterbacks (64%) scored at least 33.3% of their fantasy points via passing touchdowns.
• Josh Allen (three times) and Jalen Hurts (once) are responsible for all four instances in which a top-five quarterback amassed at least 20% of his fantasy points via rushing touchdowns. Allen and Trevor Lawrence (once) are responsible for the other two over 10%.

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Let's get to the heart of the matter now. What statistical marks do quarterbacks need to hit to be a QB1 (QB1-12)? What marks do they need to reach in order to finish inside the top five?

For the purposes of this part of the article, I will divide quarterbacks into three distinct groups: the pocket passer (quarterbacks who ran for less than 200 yards in a given season), the mobile quarterback (201-500 yards) and the dual threat (500-plus).

The reason for this should be somewhat obvious, as the pocket passer does not get the running boost the other two groups do, while the dual threat will routinely attempt 100 fewer throws than the pocket passer. In other words, we cannot ask Matthew Stafford to supplement his fantasy bottom line by running for 200-plus yards any more than we can ask Lamar Jackson to throw 600 times.

The goal of this is to know exactly what we need from each group of quarterbacks if we want a top-five (or top-12) finish.

The Pocket Passer​

Eighteen of the 60 top-12 finishes over the last five seasons (30%) have come from quarterbacks who rushed for less than 200 yards. Sixteen of those 18 finished between fifth and 12th, meaning two finished inside the top four. (Matthew Stafford and Tom Brady each finished second.)

For a top-five finish, the pocket passer averaged the following:
420 completions
629 pass attempts
4,865 passing yards
40 passing touchdowns
12 interceptions
35.5 rush attempts
75.5 rushing yards
1.0 rushing touchdown

For a top-12 finish, the pocket passer averaged the following:
401 completions
593 pass attempts
4,555 passing yards
33.2 passing touchdowns
10 interceptions
36.5 rush attempts
88.9 rushing yards
1.1 rushing touchdowns

The Mobile Quarterback​

Twenty-seven of the 60 top-12 finishes over the last five seasons (45%) have come from quarterbacks who rushed for between 201 and 500 yards. Eleven of those 27 finished between fifth or higher, while 16 landed in the sixth to 12th range. Eleven of the latter group finished between 10th and 12th. There is only one overall QB1 and one overall QB2 from this group.

For a top-five finish, the mobile quarterback averaged the following:
406 completions
600 pass attempts
4,578 passing yards
36 passing touchdowns
12 interceptions
66 rush attempts
322 rushing yards
3.5 rushing touchdowns

For a top-12 finish, the mobile quarterback averaged the following:375 completions
567 pass attempts
4,153 passing yards
29 passing touchdowns
12 interceptions
69 rush attempts
342.6 rushing yards
3.7 rushing touchdowns

The Dual Threat​

Fifteen of the 60 top-12 finishes over the last five seasons (25%) have come from quarterbacks who rushed for more than 500 yards. All but two finished higher than 10th, while 10 of the 15 finished no worse than fifth. Four of the overall QB1s and two of the overall QB2s are from this group.

For a top-five finish, the dual threat averaged the following:
339 completions
514 pass attempts
3,936 passing yards
29 passing touchdowns
10 interceptions
132.6 rush attempts
715 4 rushing yards
9.7 rushing touchdowns

For a top-12 finish, the dual threat averaged the following:
319 completions
484 pass attempts
3,647 passing yards
25 passing touchdowns
10 interceptions
131.6 rush attempts
732.7 rushing yards
9.4 rushing touchdowns

Please refer to this chart if you would prefer this information in table form.

An analysis like this isn't complete unless it yields something that managers can use for the upcoming season. Therefore, we will close this analysis with a year-by-year average of what a top-five and a top-12 quarterback produced to see if things are trending up or down.

Click here for that breakdown.


This article originally appeared on The Huddle: Setting The Bar - QBs

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