Red Sox revealed odds to trade Jarren Duran are strangely low

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Red Sox revealed odds to trade Jarren Duran are strangely low originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

The Boston Red Sox are having a nightmare 2026 season, as they're sitting at the bottom of the American League East with a 29-41 record, 14.5 games back of the division lead.

This team is very likely to be trade deadline sellers at this rate, and it should be no surprise that Jarren Duran is a name that's popping up in trade rumors once again. Like last year, Duran's name is being linked to a lot of different teams.

However, ESPN's Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel revealed trade odds for Duran that are strangely low, considering all of the rumors and buzz about a Duran deal in the last year or so.

Jarren Duran's trade odds revealed to be lower than expected for Red Sox​

"Jarren Duran, OF, Red Sox. Chance of being traded: 25%," Passan and McDaniel write. "... Duran has gone backward offensively and might just need a fresh start. Whether Boston is willing to deal low is the real question."

McDaniel and Passan give the Red Sox just a 25% chance of trading away Duran this season. Despite all of the rumors and the many outfield-needy teams, the odds of Duran being traded seem low.

It's even stranger considering Byron Buxton, who has a no-trade clause, has a 30% chance of being traded, and Tarik Skubal has an 85% chance of being traded, according to this ESPN duo.

But, there is a reason why Duran's trade odds might be this low compared to all of the rumors: Duran's regression offensively.

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This season, Duran is hitting .214 with 12 homers and a .668 OPS in 266 at-bats. His 87 OPS+ is the lowest it's been since 2022, which was before he was a full-time starter.

He has been a lot better since May 1, posting a .781 OPS with a .241 average and 11 homers with 26 RBIs since the start of May. Though he has regressed a bit in June, posting a .549 OPS with a .196 batting average in 12 games so far this month.

However, an outfielder who once had a 9.0 bWAR season and was the All-Star Game MVP, who is not expensive and is under club control through 2028, would seem to be someone who should draw a bit more trade interest.

But, even with the Red Sox likely to sell, a Duran trade doesn't appear to be very likely. ESPN's McDaniel and Passan give the Red Sox just a 25% chance of trading the outfielder, which doesn't bode well for a deal coming to fruition.

More MLB news:​

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• Tarik Skubal being traded by Tigers would help him in free agency
• Cubs’ cost to trade for Tarik Skubal from Tigers revealed by ex-MLB GM
• Yankees’ Ryan McMahon problem has a $25 million release solution
• Phillies extending Cristopher Sanchez to his $107 million deal was genius

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