Rams rank No. 1 in ESPN's Football Power Index

[ASFN Admin]

It should come as no surprise to anyone after this offseason, but the Los Angeles Rams came in at the No. 1 spot in ESPN's initial Football Power Index for the 2026 season.

According to ESPN's Seth Walder, these rankings are "primarily based on win totals from the betting market, along with each team's schedule, and include factors such as the difference between a team's starting and backup quarterbacks and a special teams rating that incorporates specific kickers." The numbers are then used to simulate the season thousands of times to determine the most likely Super Bowl winner.

The Rams took the top spot over the reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks (who came in at No. 4) because of their offense. Walder wrote that defense tends to regress more than offense, and the Seahawks built a lot of momentum in 2025 on the back of their impressive defensive unit.

The Rams, by contrast, won primarily with offense last season. While FPI expects some regression there too -- L.A.'s offense had a 5.3 rating at the end of 2025 and sits at 3.9 now -- it's a smaller drop than what the model has for the Seahawks' defense. And suddenly, the Rams also have an incredible defense on paper following Monday's trade to acquire edge rusher Myles Garrett. (They already added cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson this offseason to fill the team's previous major weakness.)

The result is the Rams are the Super Bowl favorites, with a 14.9% chance to win the title. That's more than 4 percentage points higher than for the next-best team, the Bills. Seattle's chances to repeat are less than half of that at 7.0%. Los Angeles was already the Super Bowl favorite before the Garrett trade, but the acquisition of the former Browns edge rusher nudged its chances of a Lombardi Trophy even higher.

This is the result of an offense built around keeping key pieces for Matthew Stafford (including Stafford himself) and upgrading the defense. The Rams did both, although there is still something to be said about drafting a rookie quarterback in the first round as opposed to adding an impact player at a different position.

Nevertheless, at least one model gives the Rams a clear edge in the Super Bowl race before the season even begins.

This article originally appeared on Rams Wire: Rams rank No. 1 in ESPN's Football Power Index

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