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The NFL is all about selling hope, and the Las Vegas Raiders are a perfectexample of this. They were 3-14 last year with a woeful roster, and yet somehow the combination of a new coach, the top pick in the draft, and a handful of free agents has fans and experts believing a turnaround is at hand.
Some people aren’t buying, however, and Vic Tafur of The Athletic is one of them. He wrote a piece recently that projected the over/under win total for every team in the NFL, and the number he came up with for the Raiders is under 5.5.
Ouch.
It’s not an unrealistic forecast, though. Tafur did note that the Raiders are the second most bet-on over on the board right now, but it only takes a few important facts to blow that potential victory out of the water.
Start with the fact that quarterack Kirk Cousins turns 38 next month, and he’ll be turning things over to Fernando Mendoza at some point in the season, probably around the halfway mark depending on which expert you choose to believe. As a side note, Tafur also advised taking the under on Mendoza’s 2400.5 yards passing forecast.
Tafur also fully expects the Raiders to trade Maxx Crosby before the deadline, but there are those who believe that could happen in training camp if the Raiders can find a team that’s willing to give up enough draft capital.
The receiving corps of Tre Tucker, Jalen Nailor and Jack Bech is bottom five in the league, the writer went on to add, which means that teams will able to use bracket coverage on tight end Brock Bowers. Tafur also mentioned in passing that the interior defensive line is “still a little mushy.”
He’s not wrong about any of this…but is there a way the Raiders could beat that 5.5 number? Possibly, but a lot of things would have to go right for that to happen, starting with the offensive line coming together enough to allow the Raiders to run and protect the quarterback.
Throw in that attacking defense that new DC Rob Leonard wants that can force turnovers without giving up big mistakes, add in some football luck and a revitalized pass rush, and in theory it could happen. It’s incredibly unlikely give that this is a two-year roster rebuild, maybe even a little more, and Tafur’s call starts to look both reasonable and realistic.
Continue reading...
Some people aren’t buying, however, and Vic Tafur of The Athletic is one of them. He wrote a piece recently that projected the over/under win total for every team in the NFL, and the number he came up with for the Raiders is under 5.5.
Ouch.
It’s not an unrealistic forecast, though. Tafur did note that the Raiders are the second most bet-on over on the board right now, but it only takes a few important facts to blow that potential victory out of the water.
Start with the fact that quarterack Kirk Cousins turns 38 next month, and he’ll be turning things over to Fernando Mendoza at some point in the season, probably around the halfway mark depending on which expert you choose to believe. As a side note, Tafur also advised taking the under on Mendoza’s 2400.5 yards passing forecast.
Tafur also fully expects the Raiders to trade Maxx Crosby before the deadline, but there are those who believe that could happen in training camp if the Raiders can find a team that’s willing to give up enough draft capital.
The receiving corps of Tre Tucker, Jalen Nailor and Jack Bech is bottom five in the league, the writer went on to add, which means that teams will able to use bracket coverage on tight end Brock Bowers. Tafur also mentioned in passing that the interior defensive line is “still a little mushy.”
He’s not wrong about any of this…but is there a way the Raiders could beat that 5.5 number? Possibly, but a lot of things would have to go right for that to happen, starting with the offensive line coming together enough to allow the Raiders to run and protect the quarterback.
Throw in that attacking defense that new DC Rob Leonard wants that can force turnovers without giving up big mistakes, add in some football luck and a revitalized pass rush, and in theory it could happen. It’s incredibly unlikely give that this is a two-year roster rebuild, maybe even a little more, and Tafur’s call starts to look both reasonable and realistic.
Continue reading...
