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Los Angeles Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani (17) works out during spring training baseball on Monday, Feb. 16, 2026, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)
Copyright 2026 The Associated Press. All rights reserved
During this two-week span, I’m taking a look at the Opening Day true-talent rankings of the 30 MLB clubs on a division-by-division basis. While the rankings are based on actual 2025 batted-ball data, off-season player movement and potential impact of 2026 rookies will be addressed. Last week, we started it off with the NL East and NL Central. Today, it’s the NL West.
1 - Los Angeles Dodgers - ”Tru” Talent Record = 96-66 - Offensive Rating = 112.8 (3rd), Pitching Rating = 91.9 (4th), Defensive Rating = 100.6 (19th) IN: RHP Edwin Diaz, RF Kyle Tucker; OUT: RHP Kirby Yates, LHP Anthony Banda
This is pretty much the same bunch that won its second consecutive World Series last fall, with the two pretty significant additions of closer Diaz and RF Tucker. If anything, you would have to assume the Dodgers will have a little better injury luck this time around, particularly on the pitching side. Though Blake Snell will be sidelined to open the season, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow and Shohei Ohtani are all healthy and will be a fearsome presence atop their rotation. Honestly, a relatively healthy Dodger club is a pretty safe bet to exceed a 96-win true-talent level, though surviving the postseason for a threepeat is more of a crapshoot.
2 - San Diego Padres - ”Tru” Talent Record = 90-72 - Offensive Rating = 101.5 (12th), Pitching Rating = 95.7 (9th), Defensive Rating = 94.0 (3rd) IN: UT Sung-Mon Song, LF Miguel Andujar, RHP German Marquez, RHP Griffin Canning, RF Nick Castellanos, RHP Walker Buehler; OUT: RHP Dylan Cease, RHP Robert Suarez, LF Ryan O’Hearn, 1B Luis Arraez
Mostly subtractions and bargain bin acquisitions here as the club remains in ownership flux after the death of Peter Seidler. Any hopes for contention rest on the return to health of Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish, because as things stand their rotation is wide open behind Michael King and Nick Pivetta. There is still some star power in the lineup in the persons of Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr., but the lineup just isn’t as long as it’s been in the recent past. The bullpen, fronted by Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon and Jeremiah Estrada, remains a strength.
3 - Arizona Diamondbacks - ”Tru” Talent Record = 81-81 - Offensive Rating = 102.1 (9th), Pitching Rating = 105.2 (24th), Defensive Rating = 97.1 (10th) IN: RHP Michael Soroka, RHP Merrill Kelly, 3B Nolan Arenado, 1B Carlos Santana, RHP Paul Sewald; OUT: LF Jake McCarthy, RHP Gus Varland, UT Blaze Alexander
Held back by awful pitching in 2025, the Diamondbacks are surprisingly largely running it back in that facet of the game, hoping that the likes of Zac Gallen, Brandon Pfaadt and Eduardo Rodriguez can give up less thunderous contact this time around. If they can, this bunch could make some noise as the offense is legit. Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll and even catcher Gabriel Moreno are established among the best hitters at their position, and SS Geraldo Perdomo, despite subpar batted ball metrics, was exceptional last season. The eventual return of Corbin Burnes from Tommy John surgery will be a godsend.
4 - San Francisco Giants - ”Tru” Talent Record = 77-85 - Offensive Rating = 93.3 (26th), Pitching Rating = 94.2 (8th), Defensive Rating = 104.2 (27th) IN: RHP Adrian Houser, RHP Tyler Mahle, 2B Luis Arraez, CF Harrison Bader; OUT: RHP Justin Verlander
The NL West is largely a low turnover division this year. The Giants had sneaky good pitching last season, and it should be at least as good this time around, with the additions of Mahle/Houser slightly outweighing the loss of Verlander, who pitched much better than his record in 2024. Still, this lineup isn’t striking fear into anyone’s hearts. Arraez is likely to be miscast as a leadoff man here, with his low OBP and marginal speed. He’d be a much better hit-and-run guy in the #2 hole or farther down in the order. DH Bryce Eldridge is an X-factor who could provide a big power boost. These guys could fit into the huge pack of potential NL wild cards.
5 - Colorado Rockies - ”Tru” Talent Record = 52-110 - Offensive Rating = 84.7 (30th), Pitching Rating = 123.0 (30th), Defensive Rating = 103.4 (24th) IN: LF Jake McCarthy, RHP Michael Lorenzen, UT Willi Castro, LHP Jose Quintana, RHP Tomoyuki Sugano, 2B Edouard Julien, 1B Troy Johnston; OUT: RHP Bradley Blalock, RHP Angel Chivilli, RHP German Marquez
Oh the humanity. This was as bad a major league club as possible in 2025, and might not be all that much better this time around. They somehow assembled a club that could not hit at mile-high altitude, a pretty tough feat. A new administration is in place, and patience will be required. Eventually pitchers who can miss bats will be needed (maybe Chase Dollander is one), but for now, cover your eyes when Quintana, Sugano and maybe even Lorenzen are on the mound. Positives? C Hunter Goodman is an exciting player, Dollander could be something, and there are some exciting talents a little ways down in their farm system.
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