PFF data reveals an odd shift in Matthew Stafford's passing metrics

[ASFN Admin]

Matthew Stafford, even as he heads into his 18th NFL season, is doing something he's never done before: Holding onto the football more.

According to Pro Football Focus' Thomas Valentine, the reigning league MVP has quietly altered his processing clock, showing a steady annual increase in time to throw since the 2022 season. Valentine noted that while Stafford

In 2022, Stafford’s second season in Los Angeles, the veteran's average time to throw sat at 2.60 seconds, which paired with a modest 7.0-yard average depth of target and just 38.3% of throws traveling beyond the first-down sticks. By 2023, those numbers ticked up to 2.61 seconds and an 8.6-yard average depth of target, with 46.0% of his attempts threatening the sticks before an increase to 2.65 seconds in 2024 with an 8.6-yard target depth and a 42.3% past-the-sticks rate.

Stafford's MVP season in 2025, though, was the crescendo of this trend. He held the ball for an average of 2.74 seconds, pushing his average depth of target to a whopping 10.1 yards and throwing exactly 50.0% of his passes beyond the sticks. Stafford still gets the ball out quicker than most NFL quarterbacks (the average time to throw across the NFL last season was 2.86 seconds, per PFF), but the extra time spent before throwing the ball is a testament to his faith in the offensive line, his receivers and head coach Sean McVay's offensive system.

At 38 years old, Stafford obviously isn't a scrambler. Therefore, his increased time to throw isn't a consequence of avoiding oncoming rushers and breaking out of the pocket. Instead, Stafford has used that extra time to target receivers further downfield. There is a clear correlation between his time to throw, average depth of target and percentage of throws that travel beyond the sticks.

While the Rams' passing attack has undoubtedly become more aggressive in part because of the emergence of Puka Nacua, Stafford has done an excellent job of keeping turnover-worthy plays and sacks to a minimum. The 2024 and 2025 seasons marked the first time in Stafford's 17-year career that he recorded back-to-back seasons with single-digit interceptions.

Stafford's play is not a monolith. Despite his experience, he's clearly adapting to the NFL landscape and an improved supporting cast around him. Everything culminated in a 2025 season that saw him lead the NFL in passing yards and passing touchdowns before taking home his first MVP.

Nothing has really changed about the Rams offense heading into 2025, either, so it will be interesting to see how Stafford's time to throw changes (if at all) based on this recent trend over the past four seasons.

This article originally appeared on Rams Wire: PFF data reveals an odd shift in Matthew Stafford's passing metrics

Continue reading...