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The picks have all been made, and eight new members of the Green Bay Packers have been chosen. As Brian Gutekunst often says: “The draft is unpredictable," and the players Green Bay ended up selecting were not always destined to be the picks.
It goes without saying the Packers could not care less about the consensus big board, which is constructed by media members and hobbyists and is often massively different than what the NFL thinks of prospects, and therefore when they end up being drafted.
But if Gutekunst had followed "best player available" according to the consensus big board, what would their draft have looked like?
Only players at the positions Green Bay drafted, who also fit the general type of player they look for at said positions, will be in play.
At each pick, only the players who were selected before the Packers’ next pick will be considered, to stay true to how the NFL as a whole viewed this year’s class, and players who slid due to injury or off-field concerns will not be included.
Assuming they still did not make any trades, here is how the Packers’ draft could have gone in a parallel universe:
The only pick in the draft which will remain the same, Golden was the best perceived value available when Green Bay picked in the first round, ranked 19th on the consensus big board, he was an excellent pick for the Packers and a prospect they probably did not think would be there.
Only Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders and Michigan’s Will Johnson were ranked higher, but the Packers were clearly not in the market for a quarterback, and Sanders ended up not being picked until round five, while Johnson fell to the second round due to concerns over his knees.
Other players were in contention to be Green Bay’s pick, and going with Golden arguably created some issues for them on day two, but the Packers chose the best player available on their board rather than trying to be tactical with how the draft might play out later.
This is probably the player Packers fans will be tracking closely in comparison to the actual pick, Anthony Belton, who was considered a reach at 94th on the consensus big board, as opposed to Amos who ranked 37th.
It was surprising Green Bay did not take a corner until round seven, and while Amos was never as close of a perfect athletic fit as he was generally perceived to be, he was close enough and getting him at 54 would have felt like a value pick.
If the Packers still wanted to invest in the offensive line early, they could have had Milum when they were on the clock in round three, who was ranked 83rd on the consensus big board, 11 spots ahead of Belton whom they took a round earlier.
Of course, the Packers preferred Belton or they would not have picked him where they did, and the NFL may have shared that opinion. They also could not have known a player like Milum would definitely be there in round three.
Another factor is that Milum is not exactly the same type of lineman as Belton. Both were college left tackles, but Belton is over 20 pounds heavier, and from how the Packers spoke about Belton after the pick, that clearly mattered to them.
If the Packers were open to drafting a second receiver, as they did in round three with Savion Williams, they could have gotten value in round four with Ayomanor, who is their type of big, fast and explosive receiver who needs refinement.
He was ranked 70th on the consensus big board and did not end up going until the end of the fourth round, indicating the NFL liked him significantly less than the media did.
This is another situation where not all players at a given position are built the same. Williams is a truly unique player, whereas Ayomanor is the type of receiver teams can find in the draft year in, year out.
Therefore saying the Packers "should" have just waited and taken Ayomanor in round four is somewhat disingenuous. They did not plan on taking a second receiver as early as they did, or maybe not at all, but Williams was staring at them on the board when their pick came around.
This would have been another spot to potentially get a corner, with Frazier, ranked 133rd on the consensus big board, the best value the Packers could have found at any of their relative positions of need in round five.
He is not exactly Green Bay’s type as a tall, skinny corner at nearly 6-3 and 186 pounds, but they did draft a corner weighing 183 pounds in Micah Robinson later, and Frazier is the type of athlete the Packers look for in terms of testing.
From doing this exercise, it became clear that there was not much value to be found at corner throughout this draft, at least in terms of players the Packers usually like. Passing on Amos at 54 was really the last call for them, with the group massively thinning out thereafter.
With how the draft played out, it is easy to see how Green Bay ended up not taking a corner until late in the draft again.
The Packers could have still pulled off an offensive line double up by taking Williams, who was ranked 100th on the consensus big board and ended up falling to the sixth round.
He did not test, which matters for Green Bay, but at well over 6-5 and 317 pounds with 34.5” arms, he has the kind of size and length they look for.
Even in this parallel universe scenario, the Packers did not address defensive tackle or EDGE until late in the draft, and doing this exercise helped to explain why Green Bay waited until round four and round six to get Barryn Sorrell and Warren Brinson respectively.
The value was simply not there in the first two days when they were on the clock. The defensive tackles flew off the board in rounds one and two, and many of the pass rushers did not fit the traditional Packers mold.
When talking about the lack of a corner, defensive lineman or EDGE in the early rounds, it has to be factored in that the Packers essentially admitted there were no opportunities to move around the board on day two, leaving them somewhat in no-man’s land.
Even Sorrell and Brinson were not considered the best value when they were picked, so in this BPA according to the consensus board scenario, they finally add a defensive tackle in round seven in Akingbesote.
The Packers finally add some EDGE competition with their final pick, and find some real value in the 185th ranked player on the big board, 20 places higher than Collin Oliver whom they took in round five.
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: Packers parallel universe draft: 'Best available player' for all 8 draft picks
Continue reading...
It goes without saying the Packers could not care less about the consensus big board, which is constructed by media members and hobbyists and is often massively different than what the NFL thinks of prospects, and therefore when they end up being drafted.
But if Gutekunst had followed "best player available" according to the consensus big board, what would their draft have looked like?
Only players at the positions Green Bay drafted, who also fit the general type of player they look for at said positions, will be in play.
At each pick, only the players who were selected before the Packers’ next pick will be considered, to stay true to how the NFL as a whole viewed this year’s class, and players who slid due to injury or off-field concerns will not be included.
Assuming they still did not make any trades, here is how the Packers’ draft could have gone in a parallel universe:
Pick No. 23: WR Matthew Golden, Texas
The only pick in the draft which will remain the same, Golden was the best perceived value available when Green Bay picked in the first round, ranked 19th on the consensus big board, he was an excellent pick for the Packers and a prospect they probably did not think would be there.
Only Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders and Michigan’s Will Johnson were ranked higher, but the Packers were clearly not in the market for a quarterback, and Sanders ended up not being picked until round five, while Johnson fell to the second round due to concerns over his knees.
Other players were in contention to be Green Bay’s pick, and going with Golden arguably created some issues for them on day two, but the Packers chose the best player available on their board rather than trying to be tactical with how the draft might play out later.
Pick No. 54: CB Trey Amos, Ole Miss
This is probably the player Packers fans will be tracking closely in comparison to the actual pick, Anthony Belton, who was considered a reach at 94th on the consensus big board, as opposed to Amos who ranked 37th.
It was surprising Green Bay did not take a corner until round seven, and while Amos was never as close of a perfect athletic fit as he was generally perceived to be, he was close enough and getting him at 54 would have felt like a value pick.
Pick No. 87: OL Wyatt Milum, West Virginia
If the Packers still wanted to invest in the offensive line early, they could have had Milum when they were on the clock in round three, who was ranked 83rd on the consensus big board, 11 spots ahead of Belton whom they took a round earlier.
Of course, the Packers preferred Belton or they would not have picked him where they did, and the NFL may have shared that opinion. They also could not have known a player like Milum would definitely be there in round three.
Another factor is that Milum is not exactly the same type of lineman as Belton. Both were college left tackles, but Belton is over 20 pounds heavier, and from how the Packers spoke about Belton after the pick, that clearly mattered to them.
Pick No. 124: WR Elic Ayomanor, Stanford
If the Packers were open to drafting a second receiver, as they did in round three with Savion Williams, they could have gotten value in round four with Ayomanor, who is their type of big, fast and explosive receiver who needs refinement.
He was ranked 70th on the consensus big board and did not end up going until the end of the fourth round, indicating the NFL liked him significantly less than the media did.
This is another situation where not all players at a given position are built the same. Williams is a truly unique player, whereas Ayomanor is the type of receiver teams can find in the draft year in, year out.
Therefore saying the Packers "should" have just waited and taken Ayomanor in round four is somewhat disingenuous. They did not plan on taking a second receiver as early as they did, or maybe not at all, but Williams was staring at them on the board when their pick came around.
Pick No. 159: CB Zah Frazier, UTSA
This would have been another spot to potentially get a corner, with Frazier, ranked 133rd on the consensus big board, the best value the Packers could have found at any of their relative positions of need in round five.
He is not exactly Green Bay’s type as a tall, skinny corner at nearly 6-3 and 186 pounds, but they did draft a corner weighing 183 pounds in Micah Robinson later, and Frazier is the type of athlete the Packers look for in terms of testing.
From doing this exercise, it became clear that there was not much value to be found at corner throughout this draft, at least in terms of players the Packers usually like. Passing on Amos at 54 was really the last call for them, with the group massively thinning out thereafter.
With how the draft played out, it is easy to see how Green Bay ended up not taking a corner until late in the draft again.
Pick No. 198: OL Cameron Williams, Texas
The Packers could have still pulled off an offensive line double up by taking Williams, who was ranked 100th on the consensus big board and ended up falling to the sixth round.
He did not test, which matters for Green Bay, but at well over 6-5 and 317 pounds with 34.5” arms, he has the kind of size and length they look for.
Pick No. 237: DL Tommy Akingbesote, Maryland
Even in this parallel universe scenario, the Packers did not address defensive tackle or EDGE until late in the draft, and doing this exercise helped to explain why Green Bay waited until round four and round six to get Barryn Sorrell and Warren Brinson respectively.
The value was simply not there in the first two days when they were on the clock. The defensive tackles flew off the board in rounds one and two, and many of the pass rushers did not fit the traditional Packers mold.
When talking about the lack of a corner, defensive lineman or EDGE in the early rounds, it has to be factored in that the Packers essentially admitted there were no opportunities to move around the board on day two, leaving them somewhat in no-man’s land.
Even Sorrell and Brinson were not considered the best value when they were picked, so in this BPA according to the consensus board scenario, they finally add a defensive tackle in round seven in Akingbesote.
Pick No. 250: DE Fadil Diggs, Syracuse
The Packers finally add some EDGE competition with their final pick, and find some real value in the 185th ranked player on the big board, 20 places higher than Collin Oliver whom they took in round five.
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: Packers parallel universe draft: 'Best available player' for all 8 draft picks
Continue reading...
