Opta's Latest Champions League Prediction Is Bad News for PSG Fans

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Qualified for the UEFA Champions League semifinals after its double victory against Liverpool (2-0, 0-2), Paris Saint-Germain will not start as a favorite against Bayern Munich. Opta, pessimistic for the Parisians since the round of 16, predicts a victory for the Bavarians.

So, Bayern Munich will face PSG in the Champions League semifinals. The day after the Parisians qualified, Michael Olise's teammates got the better of Real Madrid (1-2, 4-3) on Wednesday.

The Bavarians once again showed their competitiveness at the highest level. A matchup that influences Opta even a little more. The statistics specialist platform has indeed weighed in on the semifinal between the European champion and the German giant.

As a result, the English company, which simulates the remaining matches 10,000 times, taking into account various contextual and historical data, sees Paris Saint-Germain heading for the exit.

For Opta and its "supercomputer," Bayern Munich has a 61.28 percent chance of reaching the final, while Paris Saint-Germain's is only 38.72 percent. The gap is significant and shows just how little optimism the statistician has for the club from the French capital. The stats expert also estimated the chances of winning the title for each team still in contention.

17 - Le Bayern et le Paris SG s’affronteront pour la 16 et 17e fois en Ligue des Champions – le plus haut total contre un même adversaire pour les Parisiens.

Le PSG a perdu 9 fois face au Bayern en LdC, au moins 4 de plus que contre toute autre équipe.

Classique. pic.twitter.com/0QAN1EaaZt

— OptaJean (@OptaJean) April 15, 2026

And behind Arsenal (36.75 percent) and Bayern Munich (34.61 percent), Paris Saint-Germain sits only third with 19.35 percent, compared to 9.29 percent for Atletico Madrid.

The current Ligue 1 leader can at least be pleased to see its percentage climb as the rounds progress, since its chances of retaining its crown were estimated at just 12.13 percent before the doubleheader against Liverpool.

Let us also recall that Opta had predicted Paris Saint-Germain's elimination in the round of 16 against Chelsea (5-2, 0-3). Which goes to show that its predictions should be taken with caution.


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