Open Championship weather forecast could change Royal Birkdale tactics

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The 2026 Open Championship is shaping up to be a strategic test rather than a battle against Mother Nature this year.

The weather forecast for the final major of the 2026 golf season looks promising for fans attending the 154th Open Championship at Royal Birkdale. Dry conditions are predicted throughout the tournament, beginning with Round 1 on Thursday, July 16. This will change how the world's best golfers attack the Southport, England links course, with the tactics often employed during a PGA Tour stop shelved in order to best handle the shots necessary to win golf's only major contested outside the United States.

The Open Championship is being held at Royal Birkdale for the 11th time this year. Previous Claret Jug winners at Royal Birkdale include Jordan Spieth (2017), Tom Watson (1983), Johnny Miller (1976), Lee Trevino (1971) and Arnold Palmer (1961).

Here's a closer look at the weather forecast and conditions for the 2026 Open Championship, and how it could affect the golfers competing on course at Royal Birkdale:


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British Open weather forecast​


The Accuweather forecast for every round at the 2026 Open Championship calls for mostly clear and dry conditions, beginning with Round 1 action on Thursday, July 16 and culminating with the final round at Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England on Sunday, July 19.

Thursday, July 16 (Round 1)​

  • Partly sunny, very warm and pleasant with a high of 79 and low of 58. Wind predicted to the north at 9 mph with gusts of up to 21 mph.

Friday, July 17 (Round 2)​

  • Decreasing clouds and warm, high of 75 and low of 56. Wind predicted to the northwest at 10 mph with gusts of up to 23 mph.

Saturday, July 18 (Round 3)​

  • Nice with partial sunshine, high of 72 and low of 55. Wind predicted to the northwest at 10 mph with gusts of up to 24 mph.

Sunday, July 19 (Final Round)​

  • Partly sunny and nice, high of 71 and low of 59. Wind predicted to the northwest at 10 mph with gusts of up to 21 mph.

What the forecast means for Royal Birkdale course conditions​


If the current weather forecast holds for the northwest coast of England, with minimal rain expected, Royal Birkdale is likely to play firm and fast throughout the 2026 Open Championship with no water to soften the greens and fairways. This will put a premium on accuracy off the tee and iron play, in addition to the awkward bump-and-run situations often presented by links golf courses.

The lack of significant wind, however, could allow for more scoring opportunities at Royal Birkdale, which can be subject to stiffer breezes and rainy conditions along England's Irish Sea coastline.

Who benefits most from expected Open Championship conditions?​


If there's no weather to create chaos, the best ball-strikers and those experienced in the strategies of links golf are best equipped to succeed. Control off the tee, accurate iron play, and creativity around the course will be crucial to avoid Royal Birkdale's deep bunkers and thick, treacherous rough. Here are seven golfers who could stand to benefit the most given these factors:

  • Scottie Scheffler
  • Tommy Fleetwood
  • Matt Fitzpatrick
  • Robert MacIntyre
  • Shane Lowry
  • Russell Henley
  • Justin Rose

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Open Championship weather forecast could change Royal Birkdale tactics

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