How much more might Nikola Jokic have left in the tank from here? Again going back to the merger, I looked at what share of a retired good-to-great player’s eventual total WAR he had piled up through each age-season of his career. Among all players with at least 50 WAR, for instance, they’d generated 77 percent of the value they ever would through age 30 (Jokić’s season-age in 2025-26). Put another way: even very good players only have about 23 percent of their overall value left in the tank after their age-30 campaign.
One saving grace for Jokić and the Nuggets is that great players — and Jokić already has 141.0 WAR after adjusting for shortened seasons — tend to have more staying power than merely good ones. Players with at least 125 career WAR were only 66 percent of the way done by age 30, leaving about 50 percent more value in the tank going forward than our 50-WAR cohort. So there will be at least a few more chances for Denver to take advantage of Jokić’s greatness, most likely — even if they are rapidly starting to run out.
Neil Paine's Substack
