NHL Hart Trophy rankings: Four-horse race down the final straight

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One of the best Hart Trophy races in recent memory has rounded the final straight, with four contenders battling for the most lionized regular-season individual honor.

Connor McDavid is intent on winning his fourth MVP, while Nikita Kucherov and Nathan MacKinnon are pursuing their second Hart Trophy.

And then there’s 19-year-old Macklin Celebrini, focused on being anointed in his second NHL season.

4. Connor McDavid, C, Edmonton Oilers​

According to the sportsbooks, No. 97 is the least likely to capture the Hart Trophy. That’s despite leading the league in points (128) and power-play points (49).

There are reasons for his slightly diminished win probability: The Edmonton Oilers have been plagued by inconsistency, so much so that they only recently put together a five-game winning streak, their first run of more than three games. McDavid also lags behind MacKinnon and Kucherov in even-strength production.

Voter fatigue will likely play a role, as the Oilers’ captain has won twice in the last five seasons. That said, nobody would bat an eye if he snatches his fourth Hart Trophy. Unfortunately for Oilers fans, I don’t see it happening.

MORE: NHL Hart Trophy rankings: Teenage phenom battles with former award winners

3. Macklin Celebrini, C, San Jose Sharks​

If the San Jose Sharks make the playoffs, give this teenager the award.

If Celebrini wins the Hart Trophy, he’d follow in Sidney Crosby and McDavid’s footsteps by securing the honor in his sophomore season.

And as it’s a narrative-based award, voted on by the Professional Hockey Writers’ Association (PHWA), Celebrini has a better chance than his odds suggest. The Sharks would be dead in the water without their teenage phenom.

Just look at their ghastly 2-16-3 record when Celebrini doesn’t score a point.

Need more evidence? How about the fact that he has 52 points more than the second-leading scorer, Will Smith?

MORE: Macklin Celebrini's 100-Point Season Only Strengthens Sidney Crosby Comparisons

2. Nikita Kucherov, RW, Tampa Bay Lightning​

If the Sharks don’t secure a playoff spot, give this man the Hart Trophy. Kucherov has enjoyed a season that 99 percent of NHLers can only fantasize about.

He’s battling McDavid for the Art Ross Trophy despite playing six fewer games. The silky smooth Russian has the most points per game (1.76) and is 41 points up on Jake Guentzel, the team’s second-leading scorer.

He also has seven game-winning goals, tied for the most of the contenders with MacKinnon. And he’s only been kept off the scoresheet eight times in the 58 games since Nov. 15.

MORE: No NHL Team In The East Can Match The Lightning Come Playoff Time

1. Nathan MacKinnon, C, Colorado Avalanche​

While MacKinnon has been in pole position for most of the season, his lead has almost completely evaporated.

The Colorado Avalanche megastar leads the league in goals (51), even-strength goals (40), and even-strength points (94).

If he wins for the second time, his even-strength dominance will be the primary reason. Despite the recent improvement, Colorado’s power play remains in the bottom 10, sporting a startlingly low 17.6% rate of efficiency.

Leading his team to the Presidents’ Trophy, a near certainty, should also help MacKinnon’s case.

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