Michigan State football 2026 game-by-game predictions: Toledo

[ASFN Admin]

Michigan State football is right around the corner so it’s time to start predicting how the season will shake out for the Spartans.

Michigan State football is under new leadership this season, with Pat Fitzgerald set to take over as the next head coach. He will take over a program looking to get back on the winning side, with the Spartans in the midst of a four-year bowl drought. Can he get the job done and get the Spartans back to a bowl game this season? I have offered my thoughts on that in our game-by-game predictions segment on Spartans Wire.

This is the first of my game-by-game predictions for each of the matchups on the Spartans’ 2026 schedule. Each morning a new prediction will be released following Michigan State’s schedule. First up is the Spartans’ season-opener against Toledo…

Matchup Breakdown​

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Opponent: Toledo

Date: September 4, 2026

Location: Spartan Stadium (East Lansing, Mich.)

Fun Fact About This Matchup​

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This will be only the second time Michigan State and Toledo have ever played each other, with the first meeting coming more than 100 years ago. The Spartans beat the Rockets 58-0 in the lone other matchup between these two schools in 1925.

Where Things Stand Entering Matchup​

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MSU predicted record: 0-0 (0-0 in Big Ten)

This is the season-opener for both teams. This is also the first game at each of these programs for both head coaches. Pat Fitzgerald is taking over at Michigan State, last coaching in 2022 at Northwestern. Mike Jacobs is entering his first season at Toledo after making the jump from FCS program Mercer this past offseason.

Prediction​

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Prediction: Michigan State wins 31-13

Season-openers have typically been sloppy for Michigan State and I anticipate the same thing here against a traditionally solid Rockets program. But, the gap is ever widening in talent between power and group of six conference teams so while I expect Toledo to keep it interesting, I don’t see them having enough talent and depth to pull the upset. Michigan State gets a solid season-opening performance from quarterback Alessio Milivojevic en route to winning Fitzgerald’s first game as the Spartans head coach.

Next Up​

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Next on the game-by-game predictions list is a home matchup for the Spartans against Eastern Michigan of the Mid-American Conference. That prediction will be released tomorrow.

Contact/Follow us @The SpartansWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Michigan State news, notes and opinion. You can also follow Robert Bondy on X @RobertBondy5.

This article originally appeared on Spartans Wire: Michigan State football 2026 game-by-game predictions: Toledo

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