Michigan State basketball bracketology: Spartans sliding down S-curves

[ASFN Admin]

The quest of Michigan State basketball for a high seed in Tom Izzo’s 28th straight NCAA tournament took a big hit Friday, Feb. 13.

In their lone game this week, the Spartans got hammered at Wisconsin, 92-71, suffering their third loss in the last four games. At 20-5 overall and with top-25 NET-rankings wins over Illinois, Arkansas and North Carolina, Izzo’s spot in March Madness appears well in hand, barring a historic collapse.

But the rough stretch has plummeted the Spartans (10-4 Big Ten) out of contention to repeat as conference champion – at three games back with six to play – and falling from a potential 2-seed (or higher) closer to a 5-seed in most bracketology projections. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi on Sunday listed MSU as his last 4-seed on the S-curve, while CBS Sports dropped the Spartans to a 5-seed.

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The recipe for recovery? Two home games this week to get back to winning and work out the bugs before the Big Ten Tournament starts March 10 in Chicago. And MSU has plenty still to play for to try and lock up one of the triple-byes that go to the top four finishers in the regular season, which would allow the Spartans to open Friday, March 13, and need only to win three games in three days to get Izzo's seventh Big Ten tourney title.

Michigan State basketball schedule this week​

• Tuesday: vs. UCLA, 8:30 p.m., Peacock
• Sunday: vs. Ohio State, 1 p.m., CBS

Michigan State basketball bracketology for NCAA tournament​

NET rankings: No. 15 (Last week: No. 12)​

All rankings entering Sunday’s games.

• Quad 1 record: 6-4
• Quad 2 record: 4-1
• Quad 3 record: 5-0
• Quad 4 record: 5-0

KenPom rankings: No. 13 (Last week: No. 9)​

All rankings entering Monday’s games.

• Offensive efficiency: No. 43
• Defensive efficiency: No. 7

Michigan State basketball bracketology projections​

• USA TODAY: 3-seed in East vs. Portland State (updated Feb. 13)
• CBS: 5-seed in South vs. South Florida (updated Feb. 15)
• On3: 4-seed in South vs. UNC-Wilmington (updated Feb. 15).
• ESPN: 4-seed in Midwest vs. ETSU (updated Feb. 13)
• Fox Sports: 3-seed in East vs. Winthrop (updated Feb. 13).
• Bracket Matrix: 3-seed (updated Feb. 13).
• The Athletic: 3-seed in South vs. North Dakota State (updated Feb. 10)

More: Michigan State basketball 'soul-searching' after Wisconsin blowout

Michigan State basketball scores last week​

• Feb. 13: 92-71 loss at Wisconsin – This was a start-to-finish whupping, MSU’s most lopsided loss since losing by 26 at Iowa in 2022. As happened in their Feb. 4 loss at Minnesota, the Spartans never led. But unlike against the Golden Gophers – as well as in second-half comebacks against Rutgers, Michigan and Illinois – MSU never recovered from the Badgers’ barrage of 3-pointers, 10 of them in the first half and 15 in the game. The Spartans struggled to defend inside as well, giving up 11 offensive rebounds that led to 19 second-chance points. Coen Carr scored 19 points with seven rebounds and Jeremy Fears Jr. had 14 points and 12 assists.

How NCAA tournament committee selects at-large teams​

• Record: The team's overall record, conference record, and non-conference record
• Strength of schedule: The strength of the teams the team played against
• Head-to-head results: The results of games between the teams being compared
• Conference championships: The number of conference championships won
• Common opponents: The results of games against common opponents
• Adjusted Net Efficiency (NET): A measure of a team's overall performance during the regular season
• Team Value Index: A results-oriented component of the NET that ranks teams based on who they beat and where they played
• Rating Percentage Index (RPI): A computer program that calculates a team's winning percentage, opponents' success, and opponents' strength of schedule

Contact Chris Solari: [email protected]. Follow him @chrissolari.

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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan State basketball March Madness bracketology seed, projections

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