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Matthew Stafford's 2025 season was one of the best in his long career. Not only did he lead the league in passing yards and touchdowns, but he also won his first MVP award. New data suggests, too, that Stafford was also getting more out of the offense's routine plays than almost anyone would expect.
Pro Football Focus' Mark Chichester inspected an often overlooked quarterback stat: "zero-graded throws." In PFF terms, these throws are neither blown assignments nor highlight-reel plays. They are, as Chichester describes, "unremarkable ... simply a quarterback doing his job, making a play that an NFL quarterback would be expected to make."
This exercise, therefore, is all about how a quarterback executes the offense that he's placed in and how that offense produces in that design. That distinction matters because, historically, these plays haven't been a strength for the league as a whole. Across nearly 221,500 PFF zero-graded attempts since 2006, only one season has produced a net-positive result leaguewide, with the average sitting at -0.060 expected points added (EPA) per attempt. In other words, doing exactly what's asked has usually left offenses worse off, not better.
Stafford bucked that trend in 2025. He finished sixth among qualified quarterbacks with a +0.0008 EPA per attempt on zero-graded throws, completing 63.73% of those attempts for 5.07 yards per attempt. It's a modest number on its face, but in a year where the league median skewed negative, Stafford's mark put him ahead of several bigger names, including Patrick Mahomes (-0.034), Trevor Lawrence (-0.097), Justin Herbert (-0.098) and Jalen Hurts (-0.172).
Chichester's data also reinforces a broader trend: the quarterbacks who consistently post positive marks on these throws tend to play in systems built around structure and rhythm, not just individual talent. Sean McVay's offense has long been associated with getting the most out of a quarterback's routine reads, and Stafford's 2025 number suggests that continuity is still paying off in Los Angeles, especially given his stats at the end of the season.
Zero-graded throws aren't designed to identify the league's best quarterback — they're designed to show which offenses make football easier for the guy under center. The Stafford-McVay connection makes even more sense in this context, and it's likely why the Rams went all-in on trading for him five years ago and prioritized re-signing him at every opportunity.
The ironic part of all this is Jared Goff, the quarterback the Rams traded away to acquire Stafford in 2021, ranked second among all 2025 qualifiers with a +0.0897 EPA per attempt on zero-graded throws — ahead of Stafford's sixth-place mark. Goff also sits fifth on the all-time career leaderboard since 2006 at +0.025 EPA per attempt, built largely off his time in Sean McVay's offense before the trade and his continued success running a similarly structured system in Detroit under Ben Johnson.
It's a reminder that the swap worked out for both sides: the Rams got the quarterback who delivered a Super Bowl, while Goff proved his own efficiency within a well-designed scheme was never really the problem in Los Angeles.
And, with Stafford entering the twilight of his career, this kind of quiet efficiency may matter more than any highlight throw for the Rams looking to get back to the Super Bowl.
This article originally appeared on Rams Wire: Matthew Stafford quietly beating Mahomes and others in routine passes
Continue reading...
Pro Football Focus' Mark Chichester inspected an often overlooked quarterback stat: "zero-graded throws." In PFF terms, these throws are neither blown assignments nor highlight-reel plays. They are, as Chichester describes, "unremarkable ... simply a quarterback doing his job, making a play that an NFL quarterback would be expected to make."
This exercise, therefore, is all about how a quarterback executes the offense that he's placed in and how that offense produces in that design. That distinction matters because, historically, these plays haven't been a strength for the league as a whole. Across nearly 221,500 PFF zero-graded attempts since 2006, only one season has produced a net-positive result leaguewide, with the average sitting at -0.060 expected points added (EPA) per attempt. In other words, doing exactly what's asked has usually left offenses worse off, not better.
Stafford bucked that trend in 2025. He finished sixth among qualified quarterbacks with a +0.0008 EPA per attempt on zero-graded throws, completing 63.73% of those attempts for 5.07 yards per attempt. It's a modest number on its face, but in a year where the league median skewed negative, Stafford's mark put him ahead of several bigger names, including Patrick Mahomes (-0.034), Trevor Lawrence (-0.097), Justin Herbert (-0.098) and Jalen Hurts (-0.172).
Chichester's data also reinforces a broader trend: the quarterbacks who consistently post positive marks on these throws tend to play in systems built around structure and rhythm, not just individual talent. Sean McVay's offense has long been associated with getting the most out of a quarterback's routine reads, and Stafford's 2025 number suggests that continuity is still paying off in Los Angeles, especially given his stats at the end of the season.
Zero-graded throws aren't designed to identify the league's best quarterback — they're designed to show which offenses make football easier for the guy under center. The Stafford-McVay connection makes even more sense in this context, and it's likely why the Rams went all-in on trading for him five years ago and prioritized re-signing him at every opportunity.
The ironic part of all this is Jared Goff, the quarterback the Rams traded away to acquire Stafford in 2021, ranked second among all 2025 qualifiers with a +0.0897 EPA per attempt on zero-graded throws — ahead of Stafford's sixth-place mark. Goff also sits fifth on the all-time career leaderboard since 2006 at +0.025 EPA per attempt, built largely off his time in Sean McVay's offense before the trade and his continued success running a similarly structured system in Detroit under Ben Johnson.
It's a reminder that the swap worked out for both sides: the Rams got the quarterback who delivered a Super Bowl, while Goff proved his own efficiency within a well-designed scheme was never really the problem in Los Angeles.
And, with Stafford entering the twilight of his career, this kind of quiet efficiency may matter more than any highlight throw for the Rams looking to get back to the Super Bowl.
This article originally appeared on Rams Wire: Matthew Stafford quietly beating Mahomes and others in routine passes
Continue reading...
