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FAYETTEVILLE, ARKANSAS - MAY 17: Tegan Kuhns #21 of the Tennessee Volunteers pitches during game three of the series against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Baum-Walker Stadium at George Cole Field on May 17, 2025 in Fayetteville, Arkansas. The Razorbacks defeated the Volunteers 8-4. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images) | Getty Images
There are very few pitchers in the 2026 MLB draft that are better than Tegan Kuhns.
Kuhns, the Friday night starter and staff ace of the Tennessee Volunteers, hails from Gettysburg, Pennsylvania and has a shot to be one of the better starting pitching prospects from this class. The 6’3 Kuhns has a lankier build with long levers and a somewhat slender build (he’s listed at 190 lbs), but his size hasn’t stopped him from possessing some incredibly unique release traits when moving down the mound.
Releasing the ball from a well below average height, Kuhns manages to get extreme vertical carry through the zone, often eclipsing 20 IVB on his fastball with above average extension. This gives him an incredibly steep attack angle (VAA) that mimics the style Bryan Woo has found success implementing, and the fact the pitch has touched as high as 98 mph only makes the offering that much better. It’s a plus or better fastball and the foundation of everything he does as a pitcher.
Better still, Kuhns has an excellent track record against premium competition. As a freshman, Kuhns worked his way into something of a “stopper” role for the Volunteers’ bullpen, working in high leverage situations and performing admirably. Heading to the Cape over the summer, Kuhns dominated, working to a 1.38 ERA with 20 punchouts and just 1 walk across 13.1 IP. This season, he’s fully taken the reins and dominated SEC opponents, laying claim to a 3.39 ERA across 77 IP with premium command for the zone and an average of ~6 IP per start. Performance wise, there’s little to complain about.
So what gives? Why isn’t Kuhns being talked about as a top ten pick?
Full disclosure, there’s a shot he does end up going somewhere in the teens, well before the Mariners get the chance to select him. He’s very good. If you want to get more granular, however, there are some things to nitpick.
Outside of the fastball, Kuhns’ offerings need some fine tuning. The slider, his main offering outside of the fastball, produces good whiff rates and gets a healthy amount of chase, but its gyro shape isn’t necessarily an outlier at present and seems due for some regression against improved competition. His curveball, another solid option for him that he uses frequently, is rather generic in shape despite solid spin rates and lacks velocity. His changeup, which flashes well at times, needs more reps at the professional level and is still a raw offering. By no means is it a bad collection of secondaries, but it’s a fair critique to call his arsenal inconsistent and/or unfinished.
Going a level deeper, Kuhns would be somewhat of a deviation from what we’ve seen recently with the Mariners pitching ideology. By every indication out there (arsenal, pitch traits, etc.), Kuhns is an extreme pronator, essentially meaning he’s very good at backspinning the baseball. This, however, is not fully conducive to the Mariners “sinker-sweeper” trend we’ve seen in recent years. Pronators are more limited in their ability to create a diverse East-West arsenal compared to supinators, and though there are ways to get to those movement profiles, it’s not necessarily as easy as saying “teach this guy a sweeper”. It’s evident the Mariners have leaned on the “sweeper and multiple fastballs” ideology heavily, and if they think that could be an issue for Kuhns down the road, it’s absolutely going to be a part of their considerations come draft day.
Given the M’s historical success with arms, it seems like a no-brainer for the M’s to make this match should he still be available. Public outlets have Kuhns in the 15-30 range for this year’s class, and with the 24th pick, most expect him to fall in the heart of where the M’s make their first selection this 2026 cycle. Should they choose to make him a Mariner, he seems destined to make a few tweaks and ultimately evolve into one of the more exciting pitching prospects in this entire class.
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