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With the draft just around the corner, LL’s coverage on the amateur side will be ramping up considerably over the next week and aims to provide readers with a digestible, yet encompassing guide to next Saturday’s event. Having a handful of “draft crushes” every year makes the process significantly more enjoyable, and even if they don’t end up being Mariners, it’s still a fun endeavor that has a pretty low barrier to entry. Expect additional writeups, sleepers, and even an official LL Mock Draft ™ in the not so distant future.
Today’s subject, Logan Hughes, is one the most complete offensive players in all of college baseball. Considered one of the safer picks that could be available around the Mariners’ pick, Hughes would provide this system with a steady performer that should move rather quickly through the low minors, potentially helping out the big league team in just a few short years.
Hughes, a 5’11 202lb left fielder from Texas Tech, is a force at the plate. His left handed swing is short to the ball and controlled, but still generates massive EV’s consistently. He’s amongst the best in college baseball in hard hit rate, barrel accuracy, and xwOBA, lacing the ball with authority to all fields. Perhaps even more encouraging, Hughes gets to this level of power while running good contact rates and excellent plate discipline metrics. Hughes almost never strikes out and walks more than just about everyone (50/33 BB/K ratio this season), rounding out what is arguably as ideal of an offensive profile as you can find at this stage of the draft.
The shortcoming here is relatively straightforward: ceiling. Definitively a left fielder at the next level, Hughes is a roughly average runner with decent, if uninspiring defensive abilities. He’s a far cry from a DH only, but he lacks dynamism outside of his near-spotless offensive approach. He should be a passable fielder and baserunner, but there’s not a ton in his profile to buoy him if the bat doesn’t translate to the pro ranks.
If the M’s want the guy with the best chance to be an offensive threat in their lineup inside of 3 years, Logan Hughes is likely their best bet. Lacking upside may be boring to some, but Hughes’ bat could be good enough on its own to get him into that 3 WAR per season territory, and that’s a very, very, valuable asset to have on any team. A pay cut to make him an underslot target doesn’t seem all that likely as college performers will always have suitors in the first round, but he shouldn’t break the bank in their bonus pool and would afford them some leeway in the ensuing rounds to take a bigger swing should they want to. An enticing option all the same, Hughes’ undeniable polish makes him an exciting option for the Mariners at 24 and should be on your radar next weekend.
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