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It has been a foregone conclusion for weeks that Duke, Michigan and Arizona would claim three of the four No. 1 seeds in this year’s NCAA tournament.
Far more intriguing is the battle for the final spot on the top seed line.
As recently as Feb. 21, when the selection committee unveiled its in-season top 16 teams, Iowa State controversially landed the final No. 1 seed. The Cyclones have since dropped three of five games, plummeting to a projected No. 3 seed and opening the door for someone else to take their place.
A two-team sprint between Florida and UConn will likely determine who will supplant Iowa State. The reigning national champion Gators appear to have a narrow edge as both teams prepare to open conference tournament play later this week.
Labeled an early-season disappointment after suffering four losses in its opening nine games, including a puzzling one against unheralded TCU, Florida has unleashed its full potential in SEC play. A deep, physical frontcourt has bludgeoned opponents on the glass and surrendered nothing easy at the rim, helping the Gators close the regular season on an 11-game win streak to win the SEC title by three games.
Florida’s 11 Quadrant 1 victories are the fourth most in the nation, behind only Arizona, Duke and Michigan. Three of the Gators’ six losses have come against fellow contenders for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.
Florida head coach Todd Golden has the Gators right where they need to be to make a run at a repeat. (AP Photo/James Crisp)
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NET: 4 | SOR: 5 | KenPom 4 | Q1A: 3-3 | Q1B: 8-2 | Q2: 7-1 | Q3, Q4 losses: 0
Marquee wins: at Vanderbilt, Kentucky (2), Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee
Losses: at Duke, Arizona, UConn, TCU, at Missouri, Auburn
How can Florida have overtaken UConn when the Huskies have a head-to-head victory over the Gators at Madison Square Garden in December? Because head-to-head results are just one criteria the committee will consider.
Yes, UConn has fewer overall losses and a couple more top-tier wins. But Florida has 11 Quadrant 1 victories; UConn has just 7. Florida is perfect against Quadrant 3 and 4; UConn suffered a Quadrant 3 home loss to Creighton last month. Florida is no worse than No. 4 in any of the predictive metrics used by the selection committee; UConn checks in somewhere between 8th and 11th in all of them.
NET: 9 | SOR: 4 | KenPom 11 | Q1A: 5-2 | Q1B: 2-0 | Q2: 9-1 | Q3, Q4 losses: 1 (Creighton)
Marquee wins: Florida, Illinois, at Kansas, St. John’s, BYU
Losses: Arizona, at St. John’s, at Marquette, Creighton
For UConn, the good news is that Selection Sunday is still nearly a week away. The bad news is that Florida has more chances to bolster its resume in the SEC tournament than the Huskies do in the Big East bracket. Florida might have to go through Kentucky or Missouri and Vanderbilt or Tennessee just to make it to Sunday’s SEC title game. The only way that UConn can really improve its standing would be to win a potential rubber match against St. John’s in the Big East title game.
That means UConn could win the Big East tournament and still have to settle for a No. 2 seed in the Big Dance. The only way the Huskies would have a chance to jump back up to the top seed line is if someone in the SEC ousts Florida prior to Sunday’s title game.
What would happen if both Florida and UConn crash out of their respective conference tourneys early? Could someone else win their conference tournament and leapfrog both the Gators and the Huskies? That seems unlikely considering how recent committees have valued season-long results over a team getting hot in its conference tournament.
Houston would probably have the best chance if it strings together wins over, say, BYU, Kansas and Arizona while Florida and UConn do nothing to improve their resumes. That scenario would leave the Cougars with 10 Quadrant 1 wins and only top-tier losses, a resume that would outdo UConn’s and certainly force the committee to do a side-by-side comparison with Florida’s.
Emanuel Sharp and the Houston Cougars are in contention for the last No. 1 seed that's still up for grabs. (AP Photo/Mitch Alcala)
ASSOCIATED PRESS
NET: 7 | SOR: 7 | KenPom 6 | Q1A: 4-5 | Q1B: 3-0 | Q2: 11-0 | Q3, Q4 losses: 0
Marquee wins: Texas Tech, Arkansas, at BYU, at TCU
Losses: Arizona, at Iowa State, at Texas Tech, at Kansas, Tennessee
Other than Houston, it’s hard to see anyone else making a compelling case. The ceiling for Michigan State, Iowa State and Illinois is probably the No. 2 line.
History suggests that No. 1 seeds fare considerably better in the NCAA tournament than teams that settle for a No. 2. There have been 11 15-versus-2 upsets since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. Only UMBC and Fairleigh Dickinson have ever pulled off a 16-versus-1 stunner.
No. 1 seeds have made it to twice as many Final Fours as No. 2s since 1985. Twenty-six times, a No. 1 seed has won the national championship during that timespan. A No. 2 seed has only cut down the nets five times.
That’s good news for Duke, Michigan and Arizona, each of whom cemented their No. 1 seeds already. All three enter conference tournament play with matching 29-2 records and at least 14 Quadrant 1 victories. Those are numbers no one else in the country can come close to matching.
NET: 1 | SOR: 3 | KenPom 1 | Q1A: 9-2 | Q1B: 6-0 | Q2: 5-0 | Q3, Q4 losses: 0
Marquee wins: Michigan, Florida, at Michigan State, Arkansas, Kansas, Louisville (2)
Losses: Texas Tech, at North Carolina
NET: 2 | SOR: 1 | KenPom 2 | Q1A: 9-1 | Q1B: 5-1 | Q2: 8-0 | Q3, Q4 losses: 0
Marquee wins: at Illinois, Gonzaga, at Purdue, Michigan State (2), Nebraska
Losses: Duke, Wisconsin
NET: 3 | SOR: 2 | KenPom 3 | Q1A: 7-2 | Q1B: 8-0 | Q2: 5-0 | Q3, Q4 losses: 0
Marquee wins: Florida, at Houston, Iowa State, UConn, Alabama, Kansas, BYU (2)
Losses: Texas Tech, at Kansas
Who’s the overall No. 1? That’s an extraordinarily tough call, but thankfully it won’t matter. Duke will be the No. 1 in the Washington DC Region, Michigan in Chicago and Arizona in San Jose.
So they’ll each get the proximity to their campuses that they want. Then they can battle it out from there.
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Far more intriguing is the battle for the final spot on the top seed line.
As recently as Feb. 21, when the selection committee unveiled its in-season top 16 teams, Iowa State controversially landed the final No. 1 seed. The Cyclones have since dropped three of five games, plummeting to a projected No. 3 seed and opening the door for someone else to take their place.
A two-team sprint between Florida and UConn will likely determine who will supplant Iowa State. The reigning national champion Gators appear to have a narrow edge as both teams prepare to open conference tournament play later this week.
Labeled an early-season disappointment after suffering four losses in its opening nine games, including a puzzling one against unheralded TCU, Florida has unleashed its full potential in SEC play. A deep, physical frontcourt has bludgeoned opponents on the glass and surrendered nothing easy at the rim, helping the Gators close the regular season on an 11-game win streak to win the SEC title by three games.
Florida’s 11 Quadrant 1 victories are the fourth most in the nation, behind only Arizona, Duke and Michigan. Three of the Gators’ six losses have come against fellow contenders for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.
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Florida head coach Todd Golden has the Gators right where they need to be to make a run at a repeat. (AP Photo/James Crisp)
ASSOCIATED PRESS
FLORIDA (25-6, 16-2 SEC)
NET: 4 | SOR: 5 | KenPom 4 | Q1A: 3-3 | Q1B: 8-2 | Q2: 7-1 | Q3, Q4 losses: 0
Marquee wins: at Vanderbilt, Kentucky (2), Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee
Losses: at Duke, Arizona, UConn, TCU, at Missouri, Auburn
How can Florida have overtaken UConn when the Huskies have a head-to-head victory over the Gators at Madison Square Garden in December? Because head-to-head results are just one criteria the committee will consider.
Yes, UConn has fewer overall losses and a couple more top-tier wins. But Florida has 11 Quadrant 1 victories; UConn has just 7. Florida is perfect against Quadrant 3 and 4; UConn suffered a Quadrant 3 home loss to Creighton last month. Florida is no worse than No. 4 in any of the predictive metrics used by the selection committee; UConn checks in somewhere between 8th and 11th in all of them.
UCONN (27-4, 17-3 Big East)
NET: 9 | SOR: 4 | KenPom 11 | Q1A: 5-2 | Q1B: 2-0 | Q2: 9-1 | Q3, Q4 losses: 1 (Creighton)
Marquee wins: Florida, Illinois, at Kansas, St. John’s, BYU
Losses: Arizona, at St. John’s, at Marquette, Creighton
For UConn, the good news is that Selection Sunday is still nearly a week away. The bad news is that Florida has more chances to bolster its resume in the SEC tournament than the Huskies do in the Big East bracket. Florida might have to go through Kentucky or Missouri and Vanderbilt or Tennessee just to make it to Sunday’s SEC title game. The only way that UConn can really improve its standing would be to win a potential rubber match against St. John’s in the Big East title game.
That means UConn could win the Big East tournament and still have to settle for a No. 2 seed in the Big Dance. The only way the Huskies would have a chance to jump back up to the top seed line is if someone in the SEC ousts Florida prior to Sunday’s title game.
What would happen if both Florida and UConn crash out of their respective conference tourneys early? Could someone else win their conference tournament and leapfrog both the Gators and the Huskies? That seems unlikely considering how recent committees have valued season-long results over a team getting hot in its conference tournament.
Houston would probably have the best chance if it strings together wins over, say, BYU, Kansas and Arizona while Florida and UConn do nothing to improve their resumes. That scenario would leave the Cougars with 10 Quadrant 1 wins and only top-tier losses, a resume that would outdo UConn’s and certainly force the committee to do a side-by-side comparison with Florida’s.
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Emanuel Sharp and the Houston Cougars are in contention for the last No. 1 seed that's still up for grabs. (AP Photo/Mitch Alcala)
ASSOCIATED PRESS
HOUSTON (26-5, 14-4 Big 12)
NET: 7 | SOR: 7 | KenPom 6 | Q1A: 4-5 | Q1B: 3-0 | Q2: 11-0 | Q3, Q4 losses: 0
Marquee wins: Texas Tech, Arkansas, at BYU, at TCU
Losses: Arizona, at Iowa State, at Texas Tech, at Kansas, Tennessee
Other than Houston, it’s hard to see anyone else making a compelling case. The ceiling for Michigan State, Iowa State and Illinois is probably the No. 2 line.
History suggests that No. 1 seeds fare considerably better in the NCAA tournament than teams that settle for a No. 2. There have been 11 15-versus-2 upsets since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. Only UMBC and Fairleigh Dickinson have ever pulled off a 16-versus-1 stunner.
No. 1 seeds have made it to twice as many Final Fours as No. 2s since 1985. Twenty-six times, a No. 1 seed has won the national championship during that timespan. A No. 2 seed has only cut down the nets five times.
That’s good news for Duke, Michigan and Arizona, each of whom cemented their No. 1 seeds already. All three enter conference tournament play with matching 29-2 records and at least 14 Quadrant 1 victories. Those are numbers no one else in the country can come close to matching.
DUKE (29-2, 17-1 ACC)
NET: 1 | SOR: 3 | KenPom 1 | Q1A: 9-2 | Q1B: 6-0 | Q2: 5-0 | Q3, Q4 losses: 0
Marquee wins: Michigan, Florida, at Michigan State, Arkansas, Kansas, Louisville (2)
Losses: Texas Tech, at North Carolina
MICHIGAN (29-2, 19-1 Big Ten)
NET: 2 | SOR: 1 | KenPom 2 | Q1A: 9-1 | Q1B: 5-1 | Q2: 8-0 | Q3, Q4 losses: 0
Marquee wins: at Illinois, Gonzaga, at Purdue, Michigan State (2), Nebraska
Losses: Duke, Wisconsin
ARIZONA (29-2, 16-2 Big 12)
NET: 3 | SOR: 2 | KenPom 3 | Q1A: 7-2 | Q1B: 8-0 | Q2: 5-0 | Q3, Q4 losses: 0
Marquee wins: Florida, at Houston, Iowa State, UConn, Alabama, Kansas, BYU (2)
Losses: Texas Tech, at Kansas
Who’s the overall No. 1? That’s an extraordinarily tough call, but thankfully it won’t matter. Duke will be the No. 1 in the Washington DC Region, Michigan in Chicago and Arizona in San Jose.
So they’ll each get the proximity to their campuses that they want. Then they can battle it out from there.
Continue reading...
