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After months of waiting, March Madness is finally here.
The First Four is already providing plenty of drama for college basketball fans, but that's merely an appetizer to the main course that picks up on Thursday when the NCAA tournament will be in full swing.
So what can we expect over the next three weeks? Our experts weigh in with their predictions for which No. 1 seeds are the most vulnerable, which teams are the best Cinderella picks, Final Four teams, national championship winners and more.
[Yahoo Fantasy Bracket Mayhem: Make your picks for $50K in total prizes]
Don’t go buck wild picking teams seeded 12th or worse to win their first-round matchups in this year’s NCAA tournament.
This could be the second straight year when most teams that advance have deep pockets, not glass slippers.
A combination of college basketball’s skyrocketing NIL payouts and the elimination of transfer restrictions has funneled the best players to the power-conference level and widened the gap between the sport’s haves and have-nots. Teams at the top of this year’s bracket are loaded with prized freshmen, international talent and proven veterans who can earn more money playing college basketball than in overseas pro leagues or the G League.
By the numbers, Duke, Arizona and Michigan enter this year’s NCAA tournament as three of the strongest No. 1 seeds in recent memory. Each boast KenPom adjusted efficiency margins of at least 37.59, meaning that’s how many points that college basketball statistician Ken Pomeroy would project them to outscore the average Division I opponent by over 100 possessions.
Since the KenPom era began in 1997, only 10 teams have ever finished a season with adjusted efficiency margins higher than 35. Four of those are last year’s No. 1 seeds.
It isn’t just the No. 1 seeds who are unusually formidable this season. A total of 20 teams seeded sixth or higher have adjusted efficiency margins of plus-25. Only four teams finished above 25 at the end of the 2022-23 college basketball season. The year before that, there were nine.
It’s the opposite story for schools from single-bid leagues who populate the seed lines at the bottom of this year’s bracket. Their adjusted efficiency margins are far weaker than usual this season as they’ve dealt with more roster turnover than usual and more power-conference schools poaching their best players.
Does that mean this year’s NCAA tournament is guaranteed to be a repeat of last March when the Sweet 16 was populated with nothing but high-majors? Not necessarily. March Madness didn’t get its name for nothing. The unexpected will happen.
But don’t count on seeing another Florida Atlantic in this year’s Final Four or another St. Peter’s in this year’s Elite Eight. This is going to be another March where the juggernauts mostly swat aside the giant slayers and battle for the championship amongst themselves.
—Jeff Eisenberg
Who will be cutting down the nets in Indianapolis in early April? (Davis Long/Yahoo Sports)
Printable NCAA brackets for both men’s and women’s tournaments
Tourney Bracket 101: How to choose upsets, make your picks
Ranking all 68 teams in the NCAA men’s tournament
Men’s regional breakdowns: East | West | Midwest | South
5 Men’s Cinderella picks | Women’s Cinderella picks
Which top seeds could bust your bracket?
Dark horse teams that could blow up your bracket
AI predicts every game in the NCAA men’s tournament
First-round tip times for men’s games
Continue reading...
The First Four is already providing plenty of drama for college basketball fans, but that's merely an appetizer to the main course that picks up on Thursday when the NCAA tournament will be in full swing.
So what can we expect over the next three weeks? Our experts weigh in with their predictions for which No. 1 seeds are the most vulnerable, which teams are the best Cinderella picks, Final Four teams, national championship winners and more.
[Yahoo Fantasy Bracket Mayhem: Make your picks for $50K in total prizes]
NCAA tournament predictions
Don’t go buck wild picking teams seeded 12th or worse to win their first-round matchups in this year’s NCAA tournament.
This could be the second straight year when most teams that advance have deep pockets, not glass slippers.
A combination of college basketball’s skyrocketing NIL payouts and the elimination of transfer restrictions has funneled the best players to the power-conference level and widened the gap between the sport’s haves and have-nots. Teams at the top of this year’s bracket are loaded with prized freshmen, international talent and proven veterans who can earn more money playing college basketball than in overseas pro leagues or the G League.
By the numbers, Duke, Arizona and Michigan enter this year’s NCAA tournament as three of the strongest No. 1 seeds in recent memory. Each boast KenPom adjusted efficiency margins of at least 37.59, meaning that’s how many points that college basketball statistician Ken Pomeroy would project them to outscore the average Division I opponent by over 100 possessions.
Since the KenPom era began in 1997, only 10 teams have ever finished a season with adjusted efficiency margins higher than 35. Four of those are last year’s No. 1 seeds.
It isn’t just the No. 1 seeds who are unusually formidable this season. A total of 20 teams seeded sixth or higher have adjusted efficiency margins of plus-25. Only four teams finished above 25 at the end of the 2022-23 college basketball season. The year before that, there were nine.
It’s the opposite story for schools from single-bid leagues who populate the seed lines at the bottom of this year’s bracket. Their adjusted efficiency margins are far weaker than usual this season as they’ve dealt with more roster turnover than usual and more power-conference schools poaching their best players.
Does that mean this year’s NCAA tournament is guaranteed to be a repeat of last March when the Sweet 16 was populated with nothing but high-majors? Not necessarily. March Madness didn’t get its name for nothing. The unexpected will happen.
But don’t count on seeing another Florida Atlantic in this year’s Final Four or another St. Peter’s in this year’s Elite Eight. This is going to be another March where the juggernauts mostly swat aside the giant slayers and battle for the championship amongst themselves.
—Jeff Eisenberg
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Who will be cutting down the nets in Indianapolis in early April? (Davis Long/Yahoo Sports)
Everything you need to know about March Madness
Printable NCAA brackets for both men’s and women’s tournaments
Tourney Bracket 101: How to choose upsets, make your picks
Ranking all 68 teams in the NCAA men’s tournament
Men’s regional breakdowns: East | West | Midwest | South
5 Men’s Cinderella picks | Women’s Cinderella picks
Which top seeds could bust your bracket?
Dark horse teams that could blow up your bracket
AI predicts every game in the NCAA men’s tournament
First-round tip times for men’s games
Continue reading...
