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The 2026 NCAA tournament bracket will arrive in just a few hours. For now, all attention turns to the bubble, where teams either still find themselves playing for an automatic bid or waiting to see if their body of work is deserving of an at-large selection to March Madness.
With conference tournaments wrapping up and Selection Sunday upon us, Yahoo Sports is breaking down this year's remaining bubble teams.
NOTE: KenPom rankings are updated as of 9 p.m. ET on Saturday, and all NCAA WAB and NET rankings and team stats are updated through games played on March 13.
The RedHawks should be in, even after falling to UMass in the MAC tournament quarterfinals. They're the first team to author a perfect regular season since 2020-21 Gonzaga, and, perhaps more importantly, they're top 40 in the significant "Wins Above Bubble" (WAB) metric. A tool to help mitigate strength of schedule discrepancies, WAB measures a team's total number of victories against how many wins the average bubble team would be expected to tally when faced with the same schedule.
NCAA senior vice president of basketball Dan Gavitt told CBS Sports that last year's selection of the final at-large teams to make the 68-team field was "probably more highly correlated" to a team's WAB ranking than its NET ranking, a metric that takes opponent quality, efficiency of performance and game location into consideration. KenPom ranks Miami just 93rd, but an eligible one-loss team has never missed the modern NCAA tournament, according to ESPN. A 31-1 record and a top-40 WAB ranking will likely send the RedHawks to the dance and give the MAC multiple bids for the first time since 1998-99.
Peter Suder is the MAC Player of the Year. He leads a group of six RedHawks players averaging double-digit scoring figures. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
Dylan Buell via Getty Images
A stretch that started at the end of January and continued throughout February appeared to make the Tigers a lock for the NCAA tournament. They won six of their eight games in that span, notably taking down then-No. 19 Vanderbilt and then-No. 22 Tennessee along the way. But head coach Dennis Gates' team has lost all three of its games in March, including an SEC tournament second-round matchup versus Kentucky.
That momentum-killing skid began with a 16-point setback against an Oklahoma squad that's also on the bubble. Fortunately for the Tigers, they have five Quad 1 wins. If they end up making the NCAA tournament, though, they could get bounced quickly. They're in the bottom third nationally in free-throw percentage (68.6%) and opponent 3-point percentage (36.5%).
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There could be a bid stealer in the A-10. Dayton is one game away from winning the conference tournament after Amaël L'Etang tipped in the game-winner against Saint Louis in a thrilling semifinal victory Saturday. That loss alone likely won't affect the Billikens' chances. They spent the back half of January and all of February in the AP Top 25. They have a pair of Quad 1 wins, including one against a Santa Clara team that's also on track to make the NCAA tournament. Plus, they're top 40 in WAB.
If Dayton defeats VCU in the A-10 championship, however, then the committee will have to decide between Saint Louis and VCU if the league only gets two bids. That scenario would be uncomfortable for a Billikens squad that had been so good in the second year of the Josh Schertz era but has lost four of its last eight games and needed serious second-half comebacks to win two of the others.
The Rams finished the regular season on a tear, the kind that saw them win 13 of their final 14 games. Their lone loss in that sequence? Well, that came against then-No. 18 Saint Louis, which also took a 15-3 A-10 record into the conference tournament.
VCU is looking to earn a bid to consecutive NCAA tournaments for the first time since it reached seven straight from 2011-17. At the time, the Rams were led by Shaka Smart and then Will Wade. Now Phil Martelli Jr. has the keys. Under his watch this season, VCU has gone 2-5 in Quad 1 games, per BartTorvik, with the team's best wins arriving versus South Florida on Nov. 26 and Dayton on March 6. With another victory over the Flyers on Sunday, the Rams will be A-10 champs and off the bubble.
Phil Martelli Jr. is the latest head coach to thrust VCU in the NCAA tournament conversation. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)
Mitchell Layton via Getty Images
SMU face-planted down the stretch. The Mustangs dropped five of their final six games, culminating in a ACC tournament second-round defeat to No. 24 Louisville that was within the grasp of Andy Enfield's group. SMU had a multi-possession lead more than 12 minutes into the second half, after all. Nevertheless, the Mustangs — at one point 19-8, including 8-6 in ACC play — now await their fate.
To make things more stressful for SMU, it has one fewer Quad 1 win than fellow bubble team Stanford, and the Cardinal blew out the Mustangs by 20 points on Feb. 28. But Stanford's complete résumé isn't as impressive as SMU's, and the Cardinal missed out on an opportunity to improve it by bowing out to Pitt in the first round of the conference tourney. SMU's offense, headlined by Boopie Miller (19.2 points per game) and Jaron Pierre Jr. (17.6 ppg), is 27th in adjusted efficiency, per KenPom.
Texas slipped up late, too. The Longhorns' misstep might have been as big as the state they play in and could very well keep them out of the NCAA tournament. They lost five of their last six games as well, even infamously suffering an SEC tournament first-round exit at the hands of a 14-win Ole Miss team that had only won four league games all season before going on to reach the SEC tourney semis.
Texas wasn't just losing costly games late in the season. It was losing some of them badly. That batch included an 11-point defeat to a Georgia squad it previously beat, a 13-point setback to then-No. 7 Florida and a 20-point embarrassment at then-No. 20 Arkansas. The Longhorns, spearheaded by projected first-round NBA Draft pick Dailyn Swain, have six Quad 1 wins. Those are keeping them afloat.
Another one of the potentially fateful losses Texas took was to Oklahoma. The Sooners won that game in overtime and on the road. That's one of the four Quad 1 victories head coach Porter Moser's crew logged this season. Once again, Moser was on the hot seat, just like he was last season before he guided Oklahoma to an unexpected NCAA tournament appearance. He's trying to work some more magic this time around.
The Sooners wrapped a regular season that was dragged down by a nine-game losing streak early in SEC play with six wins in the final eight games. Tack on two more victories in the SEC tournament — including a dominant Quad 1 win versus Texas A&M — and suddenly Oklahoma is in the March Madness conversation. Like Saint Louis, Miami and SMU, Oklahoma is top 35 in the country in 3-point percentage. A 36.8% clip from deep can open the door to chaos.
A 16-loss at-large team in the NCAA tournament? Auburn's been trying to make its case. On one hand, the Tigers have four Quad 1 wins. Two of those are Quad 1-A victories, per BartTorvik, although it's worth noting that both of those were added to their résumé before February: Auburn defeated then-No. 14 St. John's on Nov. 26 in the Players Era Festival and knocked off then-No. 16 Florida on the road on Jan. 24.
Auburn was in the AP Top 25 through mid-December. By the end of January, it was in a fine spot at 14-8. On the last day of the month, though, the Tigers sustained the first of five straight losses. The setbacks snowballed and the season spiraled to the tune of a 3-9 finish over the final 12 games. Yes, Auburn has had to play through the third-hardest schedule, per KenPom, but 17-16 is 17-16.
If the Mountain West is a two-bid league this time around, San Diego State has a good shot to become the conference's at-large team. It likely edged New Mexico in that regard when junior guard BJ Davis lifted the Aztecs over the Lobos with a game-winning layup in the Mountain West tournament semifinals. In the process, head coach Brian Dutcher's squad picked up a much-needed third Quad 1 win.
SDSU has booked a trip to the NCAA tournament five seasons in a row, most notably in 2023, when the program made its first Final Four and then finished as national runner-up. Its KenPom rankings those seasons were 30th (2021), 25th (2022), 14th (2023), 22nd (2024) and 51st (2025). Now at 45th following a loss to Utah State in the conference title game on Saturday, the Aztecs are a toss-up to make the field.
As mentioned above, New Mexico's NCAA tournament chances took a possibly decisive hit Friday, with a spot in the Mountain West championship on the line. The Lobos will now sweat out Selection Sunday. New Mexico has to hope the committee still favors its résumé over SDSU's, despite the recent head-to-head result. After all, the Lobos did get the best of the Aztecs once this season. That was on Feb. 28.
What came next, however, were three New Mexico losses over its final four games. Friday's conference tourney showdown between the teams made the difference in their Quad 1 win totals. New Mexico has only two this season. While the Lobos have the better overall record, the Aztecs have the better WAB and NET rankings and played against a bit stronger schedule.
In his first season as head coach, former Drake and West Virginia frontman Darian DeVries has Indiana on the bubble. The Hoosiers have a chance to grab one last at-large bid for a beefy Big Ten, but they certainly shot themselves in the foot over the final month of the season. Indiana lost six of its last seven games, ultimately going one-and-done in the conference tournament with a 13-point defeat to Northwestern in the second round. That was the Hoosiers' second loss to the Wildcats in the span of about two weeks.
Indiana also lost to then-No. 8 Illinois by 20, got blown out by then-No. 7 Purdue by 29 points and fell to then-No. 13 Michigan State by 13 points. Indiana's three Quad 1 wins took place from Jan. 27-Feb. 7, as the Hoosiers topped a 12th-ranked Boilermakers squad and NCAA tournament-bound UCLA and Wisconsin. The Hoosiers haven't looked like the team that won those games in a while, though.
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With conference tournaments wrapping up and Selection Sunday upon us, Yahoo Sports is breaking down this year's remaining bubble teams.
NOTE: KenPom rankings are updated as of 9 p.m. ET on Saturday, and all NCAA WAB and NET rankings and team stats are updated through games played on March 13.
Miami (Ohio)
Record: 31-1 (18-0 MAC)
KenPom ranking: 93
WAB ranking: 38
NET ranking: 64
The RedHawks should be in, even after falling to UMass in the MAC tournament quarterfinals. They're the first team to author a perfect regular season since 2020-21 Gonzaga, and, perhaps more importantly, they're top 40 in the significant "Wins Above Bubble" (WAB) metric. A tool to help mitigate strength of schedule discrepancies, WAB measures a team's total number of victories against how many wins the average bubble team would be expected to tally when faced with the same schedule.
NCAA senior vice president of basketball Dan Gavitt told CBS Sports that last year's selection of the final at-large teams to make the 68-team field was "probably more highly correlated" to a team's WAB ranking than its NET ranking, a metric that takes opponent quality, efficiency of performance and game location into consideration. KenPom ranks Miami just 93rd, but an eligible one-loss team has never missed the modern NCAA tournament, according to ESPN. A 31-1 record and a top-40 WAB ranking will likely send the RedHawks to the dance and give the MAC multiple bids for the first time since 1998-99.
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Peter Suder is the MAC Player of the Year. He leads a group of six RedHawks players averaging double-digit scoring figures. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
Dylan Buell via Getty Images
Missouri
Record: 20-12 (10-8 SEC)
KenPom ranking: 52
WAB ranking: 41
NET ranking: 58
A stretch that started at the end of January and continued throughout February appeared to make the Tigers a lock for the NCAA tournament. They won six of their eight games in that span, notably taking down then-No. 19 Vanderbilt and then-No. 22 Tennessee along the way. But head coach Dennis Gates' team has lost all three of its games in March, including an SEC tournament second-round matchup versus Kentucky.
That momentum-killing skid began with a 16-point setback against an Oklahoma squad that's also on the bubble. Fortunately for the Tigers, they have five Quad 1 wins. If they end up making the NCAA tournament, though, they could get bounced quickly. They're in the bottom third nationally in free-throw percentage (68.6%) and opponent 3-point percentage (36.5%).
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Saint Louis
Record: 28-5 (15-3 A-10)
KenPom ranking: 41
WAB ranking: 37
NET ranking: 29
There could be a bid stealer in the A-10. Dayton is one game away from winning the conference tournament after Amaël L'Etang tipped in the game-winner against Saint Louis in a thrilling semifinal victory Saturday. That loss alone likely won't affect the Billikens' chances. They spent the back half of January and all of February in the AP Top 25. They have a pair of Quad 1 wins, including one against a Santa Clara team that's also on track to make the NCAA tournament. Plus, they're top 40 in WAB.
If Dayton defeats VCU in the A-10 championship, however, then the committee will have to decide between Saint Louis and VCU if the league only gets two bids. That scenario would be uncomfortable for a Billikens squad that had been so good in the second year of the Josh Schertz era but has lost four of its last eight games and needed serious second-half comebacks to win two of the others.
VCU
Record: 26-7 (15-3 A-10)
KenPom ranking: 46
WAB ranking: 42
NET ranking: 44
The Rams finished the regular season on a tear, the kind that saw them win 13 of their final 14 games. Their lone loss in that sequence? Well, that came against then-No. 18 Saint Louis, which also took a 15-3 A-10 record into the conference tournament.
VCU is looking to earn a bid to consecutive NCAA tournaments for the first time since it reached seven straight from 2011-17. At the time, the Rams were led by Shaka Smart and then Will Wade. Now Phil Martelli Jr. has the keys. Under his watch this season, VCU has gone 2-5 in Quad 1 games, per BartTorvik, with the team's best wins arriving versus South Florida on Nov. 26 and Dayton on March 6. With another victory over the Flyers on Sunday, the Rams will be A-10 champs and off the bubble.
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Phil Martelli Jr. is the latest head coach to thrust VCU in the NCAA tournament conversation. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)
Mitchell Layton via Getty Images
SMU
Record: 20-13 (8-10 ACC)
KenPom ranking: 42
WAB ranking: 46
NET ranking: 37
SMU face-planted down the stretch. The Mustangs dropped five of their final six games, culminating in a ACC tournament second-round defeat to No. 24 Louisville that was within the grasp of Andy Enfield's group. SMU had a multi-possession lead more than 12 minutes into the second half, after all. Nevertheless, the Mustangs — at one point 19-8, including 8-6 in ACC play — now await their fate.
To make things more stressful for SMU, it has one fewer Quad 1 win than fellow bubble team Stanford, and the Cardinal blew out the Mustangs by 20 points on Feb. 28. But Stanford's complete résumé isn't as impressive as SMU's, and the Cardinal missed out on an opportunity to improve it by bowing out to Pitt in the first round of the conference tourney. SMU's offense, headlined by Boopie Miller (19.2 points per game) and Jaron Pierre Jr. (17.6 ppg), is 27th in adjusted efficiency, per KenPom.
Texas
Record: 18-14 (9-9 SEC)
KenPom ranking: 37
WAB ranking: 47
NET ranking: 42
Texas slipped up late, too. The Longhorns' misstep might have been as big as the state they play in and could very well keep them out of the NCAA tournament. They lost five of their last six games as well, even infamously suffering an SEC tournament first-round exit at the hands of a 14-win Ole Miss team that had only won four league games all season before going on to reach the SEC tourney semis.
Texas wasn't just losing costly games late in the season. It was losing some of them badly. That batch included an 11-point defeat to a Georgia squad it previously beat, a 13-point setback to then-No. 7 Florida and a 20-point embarrassment at then-No. 20 Arkansas. The Longhorns, spearheaded by projected first-round NBA Draft pick Dailyn Swain, have six Quad 1 wins. Those are keeping them afloat.
Oklahoma
Record: 19-15 (7-11 SEC)
KenPom ranking: 40
WAB ranking: 49
NET ranking: 47
Another one of the potentially fateful losses Texas took was to Oklahoma. The Sooners won that game in overtime and on the road. That's one of the four Quad 1 victories head coach Porter Moser's crew logged this season. Once again, Moser was on the hot seat, just like he was last season before he guided Oklahoma to an unexpected NCAA tournament appearance. He's trying to work some more magic this time around.
The Sooners wrapped a regular season that was dragged down by a nine-game losing streak early in SEC play with six wins in the final eight games. Tack on two more victories in the SEC tournament — including a dominant Quad 1 win versus Texas A&M — and suddenly Oklahoma is in the March Madness conversation. Like Saint Louis, Miami and SMU, Oklahoma is top 35 in the country in 3-point percentage. A 36.8% clip from deep can open the door to chaos.
Auburn
Record: 17-16 (7-11 SEC)
KenPom ranking: 38
WAB ranking: 44
NET ranking: 39
A 16-loss at-large team in the NCAA tournament? Auburn's been trying to make its case. On one hand, the Tigers have four Quad 1 wins. Two of those are Quad 1-A victories, per BartTorvik, although it's worth noting that both of those were added to their résumé before February: Auburn defeated then-No. 14 St. John's on Nov. 26 in the Players Era Festival and knocked off then-No. 16 Florida on the road on Jan. 24.
Auburn was in the AP Top 25 through mid-December. By the end of January, it was in a fine spot at 14-8. On the last day of the month, though, the Tigers sustained the first of five straight losses. The setbacks snowballed and the season spiraled to the tune of a 3-9 finish over the final 12 games. Yes, Auburn has had to play through the third-hardest schedule, per KenPom, but 17-16 is 17-16.
San Diego State
Record: 22-11 (14-6 Mountain West)
KenPom ranking: 47
WAB ranking: 45
NET ranking: 45
If the Mountain West is a two-bid league this time around, San Diego State has a good shot to become the conference's at-large team. It likely edged New Mexico in that regard when junior guard BJ Davis lifted the Aztecs over the Lobos with a game-winning layup in the Mountain West tournament semifinals. In the process, head coach Brian Dutcher's squad picked up a much-needed third Quad 1 win.
SDSU has booked a trip to the NCAA tournament five seasons in a row, most notably in 2023, when the program made its first Final Four and then finished as national runner-up. Its KenPom rankings those seasons were 30th (2021), 25th (2022), 14th (2023), 22nd (2024) and 51st (2025). Now at 45th following a loss to Utah State in the conference title game on Saturday, the Aztecs are a toss-up to make the field.
New Mexico
Record: 23-10 (13-7 Mountain West)
KenPom ranking: 49
WAB ranking: 58
NET ranking: 46
As mentioned above, New Mexico's NCAA tournament chances took a possibly decisive hit Friday, with a spot in the Mountain West championship on the line. The Lobos will now sweat out Selection Sunday. New Mexico has to hope the committee still favors its résumé over SDSU's, despite the recent head-to-head result. After all, the Lobos did get the best of the Aztecs once this season. That was on Feb. 28.
What came next, however, were three New Mexico losses over its final four games. Friday's conference tourney showdown between the teams made the difference in their Quad 1 win totals. New Mexico has only two this season. While the Lobos have the better overall record, the Aztecs have the better WAB and NET rankings and played against a bit stronger schedule.
Indiana
Record: 18-14 (9-11 Big Ten)
KenPom ranking: 45
WAB ranking: 52
NET ranking: 41
In his first season as head coach, former Drake and West Virginia frontman Darian DeVries has Indiana on the bubble. The Hoosiers have a chance to grab one last at-large bid for a beefy Big Ten, but they certainly shot themselves in the foot over the final month of the season. Indiana lost six of its last seven games, ultimately going one-and-done in the conference tournament with a 13-point defeat to Northwestern in the second round. That was the Hoosiers' second loss to the Wildcats in the span of about two weeks.
Indiana also lost to then-No. 8 Illinois by 20, got blown out by then-No. 7 Purdue by 29 points and fell to then-No. 13 Michigan State by 13 points. Indiana's three Quad 1 wins took place from Jan. 27-Feb. 7, as the Hoosiers topped a 12th-ranked Boilermakers squad and NCAA tournament-bound UCLA and Wisconsin. The Hoosiers haven't looked like the team that won those games in a while, though.
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