March 19, top small forwards

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Deng, Smith top small forwards

By Chad Ford
NBA Insider
Friday, March 19

The small forward position is the junk drawer of the NBA. If you're over 6-foot-6 and scouts don't have a clue where you'll play in the pros, they throw you into the small forward drawer, along with all of the other odds and ends, and call it good.
Swingman. Three. Point forward. Small forward. Does it matter? There is no one definition for the three spot these days.
Some guys can shoot the rock. Others run the offense from the point, because they've got a great handle. Some are rangy defenders called upon to stop the team's top offensive player. Others are power forwards masquerading as threes, because teams are too embarrassed to admit they have a 6-7 four. Others are two guards in three clothing who've refused to leave the shooting to the two.
Nowadays, many of them speak with an accent. International players have made the biggest inroads at center and small forward. Center because NBA folks will take big guys wherever they can get them. Small forward because international big men have the ball-handling skills and shooting touch to play anywhere on the floor.
They are the Swiss Army knives of the NBA.
Look at the last five drafts, and the majority of international players taken in the first round are centers or small forwards. Dirk Nowitzki, Andrei Kirilenko, Hidayet Turkoglu, Vladimir Radmanovic, Nikoloz Tskitishivili,Bostjan Nachbar, Zarko Cabarkapa, Aleksandar Pavlovic are just the latest in a string of small forwards to get drafted in the first round.

This year is no exception. Of Insider's 10 top small forwards, five are international players.
The other interesting characteristic? Eight of the top 10 are 19 or younger. That creates a pretty interesting dilemma for scouts and agents. Theoretically, the first eight guys on this list all could pull out of the draft if they didn't like their projected slot. That makes it very difficult to accurately predict where lower-rated players will land. If everyone on this list declares, several very good prospects will slip into the draft. If none of the top young players declare ... this is the worst small forward class ever.
The influx of teenagers is what makes the small forward position pretty weak this season. What makes it strong? All of the top 10 have very big upsides. Here's our first look at what appears to be a mixed-bag small forward class.

Note: The list includes all players who we believe might declare for the 2004 draft.


NBA scouts see Luol Deng as a lottery pick when he leaves Duke.

1. Luol Deng, Duke
The line: 6-8, 220, Freshman
The skinny: He has as much "Carmelo" potential as any player in the NCAA tournament, yet several NBA agents are claiming Deng wants to return for his sophomore season at Duke. If Deng does blow up (or even if he doesn't), he could turn himself into the consensus No. 3 pick in the draft -- that's how much everyone likes him. As far as basketball goes, Deng has it all. Athleticism, an NBA-ready body, quickness, fundamentals, a nice shooting touch and a great feel for the game. Deng is an unselfish player who can handle the ball, nail the mid-range jumper, grab a rebound in traffic or lock down an opponent in crunch time.

2. Josh Smith, Oak Hill Academy
The line: 6-8, 220, 18 years old
The skinny: Think Darius Miles with a jump shot. That's the rep Smith has and why most scouts claim he'll be a top-10 selection if he comes out. Before you get too excited (Miles went No. 3), the comparison evokes both the good and the bad. Smith is a top-notch athlete and has guard skills for his size. He jumps out of the gym and can run all day. Unlike Miles, he's a pretty proficient shooter, though he still needs to improve on his 3-point range. The problems, however, are also there. He's rail thin, and scouts wonder how he'll handle the rigors of the NBA. He sometimes shrinks in the paint and isn't the rebounder scouts think he should be for his size. He relies on his athleticism too much at times and still is learning the game. He doesn't have any real go-to moves and sometimes hesitates to take his man off the dribble. His ball-handling needs improvement if he's going to make the transition to the three in the pros. With all those holes, is he really a top-five pick? Some scouts say late-lottery to mid-first round is more realistic, especially if Childress passes him on the board. Smith says it's 50-50 whether he'll play at Indiana this year.

3. Josh Childress, Stanford
The line: 6-8, 205, Junior
The skinny: He's one of the hottest names in the draft right now. Scouts believe he'll test the waters, and if he does, don't be surprised to see Childress crack the lottery. There are very few people in college basketball or the NBA with his full complement of skills. He's an outstanding pro prospect because of his long arms, athleticism, and guard-like skills at his size. He reminds some scouts of former NBA great George "The Ice Man" Gervin. Strength and aggressiveness are the only things holding him back at this point. If Childress goes off and leads Stanford to a national championship, he could theoretically be the first small forward taken in the draft.

4. Sean Banks, Memphis
The line: 6-8, 210, Freshman
The skinny: He's peaking at the right time. Banks is averaging 24.2 ppg over his last seven games. If he can lead Memphis on a Cinderella run through the tournament, his stock could get out of control. Banks is a big time athlete who's also a fluid, aggressive scorer. He's a scoring threat anywhere on the floor. He can score off the dribble or stick the mid-range jumper. He's also got the skills to be a long-range threat. Scouts believe Banks would be better off with another year of school to add strength but concede that a strong tournament would push his stock high enough to get him into the lottery.

5. Ivan Chiriaev, St. Thomas Aquinas High in Ontario (from Russia)
The line: 7-1, 235, 18 years old
The skinny: He's one of the toughest guys in the draft to predict. Scouts claim he looks amazing in workouts with an unbelievable handle and shooting touch for a kid his size. They also claim he falls much closer to Earth in actual high school games, raising concerns that he's very far away from making an impact in the league. If you can't dominate Canadian high school hoops ... Still, scouts consider him a top prospect based on his size and athleticism. He'll likely declare for the NBA draft and could go anywhere between the late-lottery to late-first round. Scouts are all over the place on him.

6. Marvin Williams, Bremerton High (Washington)
The line: 6-9, 230, 18 years old
The skinny: Williams is an amazing athlete who many scouts feel may be a little more NBA ready than some of the other, more heralded high school players eyeing the draft. He jumps out of the gym, has great speed and strength and can play three positions. Despite a great NBA body, Williams spends much of his time handling the ball and shooting from behind the arc. He does have impressive low-post moves, as well, but he prefers to play on the perimeter. His father claims there's a 99 percent chance Williams will attend North Carolina next year and skip the NBA draft. Many agents and NBA scouts, however, claim the father has been seriously exploring Williams' draft potential and would enter him in the draft if he thought Marvin was a lottery pick. Right now, he's much closer to a mid-to-late first-round pick ... so Roy Williams may be coaching him next season.

7. Damir Omerhodzic, Cibona (Croatia)
The line: 6-10, 225, 18 years old
The skinny: The few scouts who have seen the kid play claim he is one of the best young prospects in Europe. However, they also believe he's a little further behind, developmentally, than some of the other international and high school players expected to enter the draft. Omerhodzic is very versatile, runs the floor like a guard and can play both inside and outside. Scouts project him mostly at small forward. However, he's too thin and too inexperienced to make a major impact anytime soon. His agent, Marc Cornstein, told Insider that Omerhodzic will be in the draft. If he scores well in workouts, he could rocket up the charts, but right now he's probably looking at a mid- to late-first-round pick.

8. Luka Bogdanovic, Red Star (Serbia)
The line: 6-9, 200, 18 years old
The skinny: Bogdanovic is drawing comparisons to Peja Stojakovic and Vladimir Radmanovic because of his unbelievable shooting ability at his size. He also is a superb ball-handler and big-time scorer in the Yugoslavian league. The big concern NBA scouts have with Bogdanovic is his rail-thin frame. He's only packing 200 pounds at 6-9 and will have to get much stronger to be a factor in the NBA, but scouts are in love with his potential. He's averaging 10.6 ppg on 62 percent shooting this season for Red Star in the Adriatic League. Right now he's a late-first-rounder to mid-second-round pick. But he could move up with a good performance at the Nike Hoop Summit and strong workouts.



Christian Drejer's decision to leave Florida may hurt his stock.

9. Christjan Drejer, F.C. Barcelona (from Denmark)
The line: 6-9, 210, 21 years old
The skinny: Along with Chiriaev, he'll be one of the toughest kids in the draft to project. Scouts know Drejer well from his two years at Flordia, but his decison to leave school and sign with Barcelona miffed just about everyone. He's a great ball-handler and a good athlete for a kid his size. At the start of the season, scouts saw him as a potential lottery pick. An up-and-down year combined with complications from his signing with Barcelona will hurt his stock. He'd be a nice steal in the late first round but could slip into the second.

10. Juan Diego Tello Palacios, Our Savior High (New York)
The line: 6-8, 235, 18 years old
The skinny: A real sleeper. Palacios, a native of Colombia, is drawing some comparisons to Ron Artest from several high school scouts. He already has an NBA body, strength and athleticsm. He's a big-time scorer with nice passing ability for his size. He's very agressive. Every scout believes he should go to school. However, the word is Palacios is receiving pressure from family members to declare. Economocially, his family needs the help. It's very, very tough to project him right now. Scouts love his game but don't think he's ready to play in the NBA. On talent, he's a first rounder. But he could easily slip into the second.

11. Victor Khryapa, CSKA Moscow (Russia)
The line: 6-9, 220, 22-years-old
The skinny: He pulled out of the past two drafts after failing to receive a first-round promise from a team. This year he's in no matter what. Has nice skills for a player his size and is a good shooter who thrives in the open court. He's a small forward in the pros and has nice size there. Scouts wonder about his athleticism and defense. In Europe he tends to defend bigger players. He struggles when asked to guard quicker perimeter guys. If he's going to play small forward in the pros, that's going to be an issue. He has a $350,000 NBA buyout, which helps his cause. Right now he's a bubble boy but probably slips into the second round.

12. Darius Rice, Miami
The line: 6-10, 222, Senior
The skinny: Rice may be the best 6-10 shooter in the country. His uncle is Jerry, not Glen, but you'd never know it from his skinny frame. Rice has rarely been dominant this season and has actually seen his production drop off. Scouts still can't understand why Rice hasn't developed any inside game. The common theory is that he's just very soft. That's not the label you want as you head to the draft. Right now, he's still too one-dimensional, which is why his stock is mired in the second round. In Rice's defense, an international scout who saw him play saw something different. "In Europe this kid would be a star," the scout said. "He'd be a lottery pick if he was playing in Serbia or something. With the NBA adopting zones, Rice seems like the perfect player. He can shoot over anyone, and he has NBA athleticism. I don't get the problem." Unfortunatley for Rice, the NBA isn't Europe. If Rice had declared for the draft after his freshman season, chances are he would've been a mid-first-round pick. Now he looks stuck in the second round.

13. Herve Lamizana, Rutgers
The line: 6-10, 215, Senior
The skinny: Lamizana is a sleeper whom several scouts believe could be on the verge of a breakout season. A native of the Ivory Coast, Lamizana has that lethal combination of athleticism, shooting prowess and an excellent handle for someone his size. His only problem has been assertiveness. Lamizana is the type of player who won't take over a game, even though he's capable. He improved this year but not enough to get him into the first round. Still, someone will take him in the second round based on upside.

14. James Moore, New Mexico State
The line: 6-9, 215, Senior
The skinny: A long athlete who jumps out of the gym but also possesses a nice jumper. He hasn't been heavily scouted, and based on his talent should probably rise if he has impressive camps in Portsmouth and Chicago. Another sleeper to keep an eye on as a possible second rounder.

15. Rich Melzer, Wisconisn River Falls
The line: 6-8, 230, Senior
The skinny: Melzer is a Division III stud who has drawn comparisons to the Lakers' Devean George. Melzer is a good athlete who runs the floor and can spot up from the 3-point line. He's long and has put some muscle on his body this season. Scouts say he's more polished than George was when the Lakers made him a first-round pick, however Melzer isn't the athlete George was. He's been playing primarily at the four this season, but scouts see him as a three in the pros. The biggest issue is lateral quickness in defending threes at the next level. He's definately a second-round sleeper. He's averaging 26.9 ppg, 8.5 rpg on 56 percent shooting this season. He'll play at the NBA's first draft camp, the Portsmouth Invitational, in April.
Best of the Rest: Donte Smith, Southeastern Illinois; Matt Freije, Vanderbilt; Justin Reed, Mississippi; Damien Wilkins, Georgia; Luke Whitehead, Louisville; Bryant Matthews, Virginia Tech; Justin Davis, Stanford; Erik Daniels, Kentucky; Christos Tapoutos, Greece

Wait until next year: Yi Jianlian, China; Charlie Villanueva, UConn; Trevor Ariza, UCLA; Kennedy Winston, Alabama; Rudy Gay, UConn; Ryan Gomes, Providence, Vladimir Veremeenko, Belarus; Dusan Sakota, Greece; Jawad Williams, North Carolina; Regis Koundjia, LSU; Danny Granger, New Mexico; Zhu Fangyu, China.


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