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Maple Leafs first-round draft pick conditions, explained: How Bruins could end up with Toronto's top-10 pick originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are at a bit of a crossroads after their worst season in a decade. How quickly they can get the ship turned around might depend on the NHL Draft Lottery.
For the first time in quite a while, the Maple Leafs have a legitimate chance at the No. 1 overall pick, which would give them the right to select phenom Gavin McKenna. The flip side is scary for Toronto fans: the franchise could lose its pick to the Boston Bruins if the lottery doesn't fall in their favor.
As the winds of change circle the Maple Leafs following GM John Chayka's hiring, the Maple Leafs will learn their draft fate on Tuesday night.
Here's what you need to know about the conditions that could send the Maple Leafs' first-round pick to the Bruins.
MORE:Explaining NHL Draft lottery odds
Is Maple Leafs 2026 first-round pick protected?
The Maple Leafs' first-round pick is protected only if it lands within the top five picks. Toronto happened to finish with the fifth-worst record in the NHL and therefore has the fifth-highest odds in the lottery.
If the Maple Leafs fall outside the top five, which would require a team behind them to jump to either the No. 1 or No. 2 pick, their pick would go to Boston.
Here's a full look at the conditions attached to the pick and how it can end up with either the Maple Leafs or Bruins.
MORE:Inside new Maple Leafs GM John Chayka's history of controversy
Maple Leafs first-round draft pick conditions 2026
The Bruins are going to get a Maple Leafs first-round pick at some point. If Toronto lands in the top five this year, the pick would move to 2027 with heavy conditions.
In that scenario, what the Maple Leafs can do with their 2027 pick depends on where it lands. If it's inside the top 10, Toronto has the option to either transfer it to the Bruins and give the Flyers their unprotected 2028 first-round pick or transfer it to the Flyers and give the Bruins their unprotected 2028 first-round pick.
If it lands outside the top 10 in 2027, the Maple Leafs' pick would go directly to the Flyers with the Bruins automatically landing Toronto's unprotected 2028 first-round pick.
In either scenario, the Maple Leafs would not own their first-round pick in either 2027 or 2028 if they keep their pick this year.
The Maple Leafs traded first-round picks in 2025 deals for Scott Laughton and Brandon Carlo, which created this convoluted set of scenarios for as many as three years.
MORE:Maple Leafs reporter slams 'con artist' John Chayka during press conference
How Maple Leafs can keep 2026 first-round pick
The Maple Leafs have a 41.8 percent chance of keeping their first-round pick, which is less than fans might be comfortable with but still pretty straightforward.
The path to keeping the pick is simple: Toronto needs to either be awarded the No. 1 or No. 2 pick through the lottery or hope for the two teams that do land those picks to be two of the four teams already ahead of them in the draft order. For example, any two of the Canucks, Blackhawks, Rangers and Flames landing those top two picks would prevent a team from jumping the Maple Leafs and keep them right at No. 5.
MORE:Victor Hedman opens up about mental health leave of absence
How Bruins can receive Maple Leafs' 2026 first-round pick
The Bruins have a 58.2 percent chance of getting the Maple Leafs' first-round pick.
Boston simply needs a lottery team with worse odds than Toronto to receive either the No. 1 or No. 2 pick. That would push the Maple Leafs down a spot in the order to No. 6, provided Toronto isn't the team that receives the other top-two pick. If the pick falls to No. 6 or No. 7, it goes to the Bruins.
For Bruins fans, these are the teams to root for in the lottery: the Kraken, Jets, Panthers, Sharks, Blues, Devils, Islanders, Blue Jackets and Capitals.
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