Lottery count down

[leclerc]

About a week until the lotto so start crossing your fingers, and get some Suns wishes in with those bed time prayers, cause we need everything we can get!

#1 Fultz to Phoenix!

 

[Ronin]

Please just land a top three pick. I am not asking for too much. I don't want to see what happened to the yotes , happen to the Suns. :crosses fingers:

 

[pokerface]

I'm glad there is a lottery countdown thread just because I'm going out of my mind in anticipation!!

 

[pokerface]

If someone comes on here hoping for #5 pick this is my answer...

 

[GatorAZ]

You must be registered for see images

 

[AzStevenCal]

I want the first pick but I'm not going to be devastated if we end up 5th. I'd give Fultz the best chance to reach stardom but not by much of a margin. I think Fox, Isaac and Markkanen, at a minimum, are almost as likely to hit it big. That first pick means we definitely get our guy but that's about all it means to me. I won't be at all surprised to see us still get "our guy" at 5.

Actually, there's a second reason I'd like the first pick but it's a long shot. I'd really like to be in position to do a swap with a desperate Boston club that includes Brooklyn's 2018 pick too.

 

[Bert]

1. Brooklyn Nets 20-62 25.0%
2. Phoenix Suns 24-58 19.9%
3. Los Angeles Lakers 26-56 15.6%
4. Philadelphia Sixers 28-54 11.9%
5. Orlando Magic 29-53 8.8%


This will be the final order:

1. Nets (because the FIX would just be too obvious to give the Lakers #1)
2. Lakers (obviously)
3. Sixers - no favoritism here, just the suns getting screwed by lady luck like always.
4. Suns
5. Magic (see, there's no fix, they were 5th and they got the 5!)

 

[pokerface]

I want the first pick but I'm not going to be devastated if we end up 5th. I'd give Fultz the best chance to reach stardom but not by much of a margin. I think Fox, Isaac and Markkanen, at a minimum, are almost as likely to hit it big. That first pick means we definitely get our guy but that's about all it means to me. I won't be at all surprised to see us still get "our guy" at 5.

Actually, there's a second reason I'd like the first pick but it's a long shot. I'd really like to be in position to do a swap with a desperate Boston club that includes Brooklyn's 2018 pick too.

That is the bright side that #5 pick in this draft wouldn't be the end of the world. The drop off isn't tremendous.

Yeah getting #1 does have it's advantages though...more leverage.. more trading power... more goodies.

 

[pokerface]

My gut feeling lately is that we will be picking #3.


But my gut has been wrong before...on many levels!

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Luke Walton came out and already said "Magic assured me we will have our pick this year. We are not falling out of the top 3"

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...-tells-luke-walton-lakers-will-get-top-3-pick

 

[Finito]

It's gotta be Jackson all the way for me.

Honestly I think Fox could end up better than fultz and ball

 

[Mainstreet]

It's gotta be Jackson all the way for me.

Honestly I think Fox could end up better than fultz and ball

These four players are the reason the Suns need to land in the top 4 although I agree with AzStevenCal, landing 5 would not be a disaster. The player I worry most about the Suns drafting is Tatum. I don't see a lot of upside with him.

 

[pokerface]

These four players are the reason the Suns need to land in the top 4 although I agree with AzStevenCal, landing 5 would not be a disaster. The player I worry most about the Suns drafting is Tatum. I don't see a lot of upside with him.

I read a little somewhere that Tatum might not be all that different from Warren. Not necessarily a huge upgrade perhaps?

 

[Mainstreet]

I read a little somewhere that Tatum might not be all that different from Warren. Not necessarily a huge upgrade perhaps?

I'm not sure Tatum is better than Warren because Warren has tremendous basketball instincts.

Also, Tatum played a lot of minutes when he was matched up against a PFs in college where he was able to exploit a quickness advantage. He may not be able to get away with this against SFs in the NBA. The first sentence in the 2nd paragraph particularly bothers me.

With that said, there is some concern projecting certain aspects of Tatum's offensive game to the next level, most notably his ability to get to the rim against similar athletes. Like many tall forwards at the collegiate level, Tatum played a large portion of his minutes at the power forward spot to make way for Duke's deep perimeter attack. This afforded Tatum a quickness advantage that may not always be there at the next level.

Despite Tatum's size and fluidity, he's not an exceptionally explosive athlete by NBA standards, with an average first step that was further slowed down by a high and loose dribble. Tatum's skill level, footwork, and ability to change speeds helped him mitigate that, for the most part, at the college level, although even there he settled for more difficult pull-ups and floaters than you would have preferred, shots with a high degree of difficulty and a comparatively low expected value. Tatum will have to further refine his ball handling and diversify his skill set in order to consistently create efficient shots for himself at a high level in the NBA.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jayson-Tatum-7249/

 

[pokerface]

Well I've never been sold on Tatum. His upside seems pretty limited.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Honestly I would take any of these four and be happy:

Ball, Fultz, Jackson, or Fox.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I want the first pick but I'm not going to be devastated if we end up 5th. I'd give Fultz the best chance to reach stardom but not by much of a margin. I think Fox, Isaac and Markkanen, at a minimum, are almost as likely to hit it big. That first pick means we definitely get our guy but that's about all it means to me. I won't be at all surprised to see us still get "our guy" at 5.

Actually, there's a second reason I'd like the first pick but it's a long shot. I'd really like to be in position to do a swap with a desperate Boston club that includes Brooklyn's 2018 pick too.

Curious, what makes you think Boston is desperate? I think only ball isn't a great fit for them. But either fultz, Jackson, Tatum, Isaac or markennen are good additions for them.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Curious, what makes you think Boston is desperate? I think only ball isn't a great fit for them. But either fultz, Jackson, Tatum, Isaac or markennen are good additions for them.

Oh, I don't, that's why I said "long shot". Once they get around to working these players out - measuring them, inspecting them, interviewing them and fully researching them - there will be a clearer picture of the talent in this draft.

If Boston becomes convinced that there's a singular star in this group and the lottery puts them behind us, I could easily see them wanting their star this season rather than waiting for next. Of course, I could easily see them being willing to wait for one of the anticipated bigs of next season too. So, long shot.

 

[Mainstreet]

If Boston does draft #1, I can see them seriously looking at trade down scenarios. I'd want the Suns to do examine this as well if they draft first. There are four or five really good players in this draft. Of course, the Suns could not trade down beyond the pool of players they like.

Someone mentioned the idea the Suns might swap picks with the Lakers for a player like Zubac in return. This could be attractive depending upon draft position. For example, the Suns could draft Ball for the Lakers and the Lakers draft Fox for the Suns plus the Suns get Zubac or something else attractive in return.

 

[JCSunsfan]

The shoe thing is really poor with Ball. When he comes into the league there is going to be a target on his ba

Honestly I would take any of these four and be happy:

Ball, Fultz, Jackson, or Fox.

We can't be lower than #5 right? So who are your top 5?

Ball, Fultz, Jackson, Fox. But then its really hard. Tatum, Isaac, Markkanen. One of those three I think.

I really hope we don't end up at 5.

 

[Chaplin]

In order for us to get the #5, three of the teams with better records would need to jump ahead. Has that ever happened?

 

[JCSunsfan]

In order for us to get the #5, three of the team
with better records would need to jump ahead. Has that ever happened?

FIVE TIMES!

In 2009, the second seeded team picked 5th. The Wizards had the second best lotto odds but were jumped by the Clippers (3rd) who took Blake Griffin, the Griz (6th) who took Thabeet, and the Thunder (4th) who took Harden.

The Wizards traded away the pick to Minny for Randy Foye and Mike Miller. Minny took Rubio.

It also happened in 2007 to the Celtics. They were seeded 2nd and picked 5th with Portland, Seattle and Atlanta jumping them. That was the famous Atlanta/Horford draft that screwed the Suns too.

In 2001 the Wizards, Clips, and Hawks, jumped the Warriors who were seeded second.

In 1993 the Timberwolves were jumped by the Magic, Sixers, and Warriors.

In 1991 the Heat were jumped by the Hornets, Nets and Kings.

Thats as far back as we go for a weighted lottery. Before that it was equal weighting and doesn't really fit.

 

[pokerface]

If Boston does draft #1, I can see them seriously looking at trade down scenarios. I'd want the Suns to do examine this as well if they draft first. There are four or five really good players in this draft. Of course, the Suns could not trade down beyond the pool of players they like.

Someone mentioned the idea the Suns might swap picks with the Lakers for a player like Zubac in return. This could be attractive depending upon draft position. For example, the Suns could draft Ball for the Lakers and the Lakers draft Fox for the Suns plus the Suns get Zubac or something else attractive in return.

Sign me up for that!

 

[elindholm]

FIVE TIMES!

In 2009, the second seeded team picked 5th. The Wizards had the second best lotto odds but were jumped by the Clippers (3rd) who took Blake Griffin, the Griz (6th) who took Thabeet, and the Thunder (4th) who took Harden.

The Wizards traded away the pick to Minny for Randy Foye and Mike Miller. Minny took Rubio.

It also happened in 2007 to the Celtics. They were seeded 2nd and picked 5th with Portland, Seattle and Atlanta jumping them. That was the famous Atlanta/Horford draft that screwed the Suns too.

In 2001 the Wizards, Clips, and Hawks, jumped the Warriors who were seeded second.

In 1993 the Timberwolves were jumped by the Magic, Sixers, and Warriors.

In 1991 the Heat were jumped by the Hornets, Nets and Kings.

Thats as far back as we go for a weighted lottery. Before that it was equal weighting and doesn't really fit.

The probability of the #2 lottery seed falling to 5th is about 1 in 8. So for it to have happened five times in less than 20 years is surprising, but not extraordinarily so.

Most likely draft positions for the #2 lottery seed:

#4, 32%
#1, 20%
#2, 19%
#3, 17%
#5, 12%

 

[Bodha]

At this point I dont care where we pick...as long as its not Ball.

Fultz, Jackson, Fox are all excellent picks