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Is Kristian Campbell Finally Turning Corner, Reviving Prospect Status? originally appeared on NESN. Add NESN as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
For the first time in nearly a year, Red Sox fans have reason to be excited about Kristian Campbell.
Before the start of last season, Campbell was considered a top-five prospect in baseball. Some evaluators even had him ranked ahead of Roman Anthony, who topped most national rankings on Opening Day. And Campbell, who won the Minor League Player of the Year Award in 2024, initially lived up to the hype, hitting .313 with four home runs and a .935 OPS in his first 28 games as Boston's primary second baseman.
But Campbell cratered from there, hitting .154 with two homers, 42 strikeouts, and a .451 OPS in his next 39 games before being demoted in late June. His struggles defensively also caused the Red Sox to experiment with Campbell at first base in addition to playing him in the outfield, where he's most comfortable. Campbell posted middling numbers the rest of the season in Triple-A Worcester -- .273 batting average, two home runs and a .799 OPS -- with his stark declines in both exit velocity and launch indicative of a player who needed a full reset.
The Red Sox overhauled Campbell's swing during the offseason while having him focus on the outfield. After an underwhelming spring training, Campbell began this season in Triple-A with no clear path back to the majors.
And though Campbell hasn't exactly torn the cover off the ball this season, he's shown steady improvement -- especially lately.
In his last 18 games, including the first leg of Thursday's doubleheader, Campbell hit .323 with 14 walks and 8 RBIs. His power production hasn't been eye-popping -- zero home runs and just three doubles -- but bad luck is partially to blame. The reality is that Campbell has been hitting the ball much harder and, crucially, higher.
He posted two exit velocities over 100 mph on Sunday, three on Tuesday, and one in Thursday's doubleheader opener. Campbell entered Wednesday in the 81st percentile for minor leaguers for exit velocity, 79th percentile in max exit velocity, and 74th percentile for hard-hit percentage, per Prospect Savant. This graphic from Red Sox stats illustrates the launch-angle gains Campbell displayed last week, a trend that's continued this week:
He still has a long way to go, though.
Campbell still is in the 20th percentile for pull-air percentage, a metric prioritized by the Red Sox's Craig Breslow-led front office. He still hits too many ground balls to the right side of the infield and doesn't show enough power to left field.
Moreover, while Campbell has been excellent in the outfield, he still doesn't have a clear path back to Boston. Barring injuries and/or trades, it's unlikely Campbell will play over Roman Anthony, Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela, or Jarren Duran anytime soon. You could squint and see a scenario in which he plays center field and Rafaela moves to the infield, but that's a stretch. And it's difficult to envision Boston ever moving him back to second base.
Nevertheless, the arrow is pointing upward, albeit slightly, on Campbell. Even if he spends the entire season in Worcester, Campbell would put himself back on the big-league map if he continues his current trajectory.
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