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MIAMI — Yes, playoff games remain, so all of this is premature. But because playoff games also have already been played, the reality is the percolating with trade speculation has already begun.
Be it teams that failed to advance to the playoffs or teams that look like they already are on the exit ramp, some top-tier NBA currency could be transacted soon enough.
It is a pool that could provide whale hunting (yes, we’re there again) ample enough that Pat Riley might have trouble not casting the Miami Heat’s harpoon.
For the uninitiated, once a team is eliminated from the playoffs, it becomes eligible to make trades.
Typically, that does not happen, since it limits trade partners.
Yet, as the Luka Doncic deal so vividly demonstrated, it isn’t always a case of canvassing every possible option, but rather finding one appealing enough to make the move. Granted, it’s also not as if the NBA is in any hurry to emulate Dallas Mavericks General Manager Nico Harrison and his rush in shipping Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers for Anthony Davis.
Still, trading season could prove closer that it appears in the typical postseason rearview mirror.
With so many teams in flux, the moment could be ripe for wholesale changes.
The New Orleans Pelicans moved on to a new general manager, so time to also move on from Zion Williamson?
The Atlanta Hawks also have restructured their front office, so time for roster restructuring to a post-Trae Young era?
The Phoenix Suns are without a coach and kicking tires on executives, so Kevin Durant next out the desert door?
The Memphis Grizzlies also are without a coach (with all due respect to interim playoff placeholder Tuomas Iisalo), so have they also had enough of this Ja Morant nonsense?
And then there are the Milwaukee Bucks, whose regular season wasn’t good enough and whose playoffs aren’t setting up much better, so whither Giannis Antetokounmpo or Damian Lillard?
As always, making the math work matters, with ample hurdles under the added apron regulations. But for a team such as the Heat that now is below the first luxury-tax apron (albeit with a hard cap at that number), it means flexibility before the end of the cap calendar year in June that could prove helpful with immediacy.
So with an appreciation that the season remains ongoing at the moment, but also amid the reality of the outside swirl, a look at the personnel names of the moment and the Heat options, when and if such a window were to open.
Zion Williamson
Market reasoning: With Brandon Ingram moved to the Toronto Raptors at the February trading deadline, and now with David Griffin out and Joe Dumars in as general manager, a Pelicans reset already has begun. That said, how do you rebuild around a player who has played more than 30 games just twice in his six seasons?
Trade machine: A machination under the salary cap for the Heat that works could be Jaime Jaquez Jr., Nikola Jovic, Kevin Love, Terry Rozier and draft capital. Such a large deal almost assuredly would have to wait until rosters expand to 20 in July.
Riley reasoning: This would be a heck of a risk based on Williamson’s injury history (but somewhat mitigated by the non-guaranteed money on Williamson’s deal). The degree of draft compensation required could be a sticking point on both sides.
Kevin Durant
Market reasoning: By season’s end, it was apparent that the Suns’ combination of Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal did not work, with it all but accepted that Durant will be moved as he enters the final year of his contract.
Trade Machine: A permutation that would work at the moment under the cap would be Rozier, Jovic (Jaquez would work in place of Jovic) and Andrew Wiggins, as well as draft capital.
Riley reasoning: After so many runs at Durant over the years, it almost would be a fitting final Riley chapter to close the deal. The irony is that any team trading for Durant would have to pony up for an extension. That basically would mean giving the extension money to Durant the Heat did not give to Jimmy Butler. Then again, that could have Riley smiling, as well. The reality is other offers could easily trump any Heat package.
Ja Morant
Market reasoning: At some point, the headaches with the Morant behavior, suspensions and fines might wear thin with a team able to muster nothing more than a last-chance playoff entry through the play-in round.
Trade machine: A package of Tyler Herro, Jaquez, Jovic and draft capital works under the cap, as would a trade of Wiggins, Jaquez and Jovic.
Riley reasoning: This is what Pat Riley does, turn distressed property into a franchise cornerstone. This, too, would be a fitting final chapter for the Heat patriarch.
Trae Young
Market reasoning: At some point, the Hawks have to turn in a different direction, as they already have with their front office. While this is not in any way as sure a thing as Durant being dealt, it certainly looms.
Trade machine: A Heat package of Wiggins, Jaquez, Jovic and Kyle Anderson presently would work under the cap.
Riley reasoning: This simply would be a case of upgrading talent first, leaving the rest to the coaching brilliance of Erik Spoelstra. But Young and Herro defensively in the same backcourt? In that regard, an argument could be made about Wiggins being the better fit than such a trade. Still, tires at least could be kicked.
Damian Lillard
Marketing reasoning: Another quick playoff demise and something will have to change in Milwaukee after what would be consecutive first-round ousters.
Trade machine: A package of Wiggins, Rozier and Jovic would work under the cap.
Riley reasoning: Unlike the thought process of Riley making runs with Durant until he gets his man, this is wholly different from the Heat’s previous gambit for Lillard. The Heat already have lived through the blood-clot issues with Chris Bosh. While each medical circumstance is different, do the Heat go back there? Herro could possibly be subbed into a permutation for Lillard, but that’s a lot of age differential.
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Market reasoning: When does patience run too thin? Certainly not an anticipated move, but keep an eye if any smoke leads to a fire.
Trade machine: A package of Bam Adebayo, Kel’el Ware, Jaime Jaquez, Nikola Jovic and draft capital works under the cap.
Riley reasoning: With all due respect to cultural cornerstone Adebayo, a generational player forces you to push all your chips to the middle of the table. The question with such a package is if there would be enough left on the Heat to entice Antetokounmpo.
DONCIC WINDOW: When taking into consideration any potential big-time offseason transaction for the Heat or elsewhere, also keep in mind one additional timing element: The window for a Luka Doncic extension opens on Aug. 2. For those that might want to transact, any moves with future payrolls well could take into consideration what happens next with Doncic. That creates yet another scenario where these playoffs could impact a wild personnel offseason. And when it comes to Luka, keep an eye on whether the Heat formally add Goran Dragic somewhere to their staff, which could open eyes to a Slovenian fullcourt press.
TRADE THE PICK: With all due respect to the work of Adam Simon and the Heat scouting staff that already is in progress, the greatest benefit of securing June’s No. 20 selection from the Golden State Warriors from the Jimmy Butler trade might be to trade it for a future first-round pick to reopen flexibility. With the Heat still owing Charlotte a first-round pick to complete the Terry Rozier trade, by securing a future pick, perhaps in one of the two years the selection could go to Charlotte (either 2027 or ‘28), it would thereby open packaging possibilities down the road. As it is, there already is plenty in the Heat pipeline to develop, from Kel’el Ware to Nikola Jovic to Jaime Jaquez Jr. to Pelle Larsson to Keshad Johnson to those who were on two-way contracts this season.
OVER THERE: A pair of former Heat players took home European honors over the past week. Former Heat rookie standout Kendrick Nunn, who has been starring in Greece the past two seasons, was named EuroLeague Most Valuable Player. Nunn led the league at 21.1 points per game (games are 40 minutes, not the NBA’s 48) on .503 from the field and .426 on 3-pointers. Among those on Nunn’s loaded Panathinaikos roster are former NBA players Juancho Hernangómez, Jerian Grant, Cedi Osman, Wenyen Gabriel and Kostas Antetokounmpo. Then there is (very briefly) former Heat guard Zoran Dragic (brother of Goran), who, at 35, this past week helped Bilbao Basket of the Spanish League to the EuropeCup championship, a second-tier title.
2. Times the Heat have been victimized by at least 10 opposing 3-pointers in a playoff quarter, something that has happened only five times in NBA postseason history. In addition to Cleveland’s NBA-record 11 in the second quarter of Wednesday night’s Game 3, the Heat also yielded 10 to the Bucks in the first quarter of a May 24, 2021 first-round 132-98 Game 2 road loss.
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Be it teams that failed to advance to the playoffs or teams that look like they already are on the exit ramp, some top-tier NBA currency could be transacted soon enough.
It is a pool that could provide whale hunting (yes, we’re there again) ample enough that Pat Riley might have trouble not casting the Miami Heat’s harpoon.
For the uninitiated, once a team is eliminated from the playoffs, it becomes eligible to make trades.
Typically, that does not happen, since it limits trade partners.
Yet, as the Luka Doncic deal so vividly demonstrated, it isn’t always a case of canvassing every possible option, but rather finding one appealing enough to make the move. Granted, it’s also not as if the NBA is in any hurry to emulate Dallas Mavericks General Manager Nico Harrison and his rush in shipping Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers for Anthony Davis.
Still, trading season could prove closer that it appears in the typical postseason rearview mirror.
With so many teams in flux, the moment could be ripe for wholesale changes.
The New Orleans Pelicans moved on to a new general manager, so time to also move on from Zion Williamson?
The Atlanta Hawks also have restructured their front office, so time for roster restructuring to a post-Trae Young era?
The Phoenix Suns are without a coach and kicking tires on executives, so Kevin Durant next out the desert door?
The Memphis Grizzlies also are without a coach (with all due respect to interim playoff placeholder Tuomas Iisalo), so have they also had enough of this Ja Morant nonsense?
And then there are the Milwaukee Bucks, whose regular season wasn’t good enough and whose playoffs aren’t setting up much better, so whither Giannis Antetokounmpo or Damian Lillard?
As always, making the math work matters, with ample hurdles under the added apron regulations. But for a team such as the Heat that now is below the first luxury-tax apron (albeit with a hard cap at that number), it means flexibility before the end of the cap calendar year in June that could prove helpful with immediacy.
So with an appreciation that the season remains ongoing at the moment, but also amid the reality of the outside swirl, a look at the personnel names of the moment and the Heat options, when and if such a window were to open.
Zion Williamson
Market reasoning: With Brandon Ingram moved to the Toronto Raptors at the February trading deadline, and now with David Griffin out and Joe Dumars in as general manager, a Pelicans reset already has begun. That said, how do you rebuild around a player who has played more than 30 games just twice in his six seasons?
Trade machine: A machination under the salary cap for the Heat that works could be Jaime Jaquez Jr., Nikola Jovic, Kevin Love, Terry Rozier and draft capital. Such a large deal almost assuredly would have to wait until rosters expand to 20 in July.
Riley reasoning: This would be a heck of a risk based on Williamson’s injury history (but somewhat mitigated by the non-guaranteed money on Williamson’s deal). The degree of draft compensation required could be a sticking point on both sides.
Kevin Durant
Market reasoning: By season’s end, it was apparent that the Suns’ combination of Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal did not work, with it all but accepted that Durant will be moved as he enters the final year of his contract.
Trade Machine: A permutation that would work at the moment under the cap would be Rozier, Jovic (Jaquez would work in place of Jovic) and Andrew Wiggins, as well as draft capital.
Riley reasoning: After so many runs at Durant over the years, it almost would be a fitting final Riley chapter to close the deal. The irony is that any team trading for Durant would have to pony up for an extension. That basically would mean giving the extension money to Durant the Heat did not give to Jimmy Butler. Then again, that could have Riley smiling, as well. The reality is other offers could easily trump any Heat package.
Ja Morant
Market reasoning: At some point, the headaches with the Morant behavior, suspensions and fines might wear thin with a team able to muster nothing more than a last-chance playoff entry through the play-in round.
Trade machine: A package of Tyler Herro, Jaquez, Jovic and draft capital works under the cap, as would a trade of Wiggins, Jaquez and Jovic.
Riley reasoning: This is what Pat Riley does, turn distressed property into a franchise cornerstone. This, too, would be a fitting final chapter for the Heat patriarch.
Trae Young
Market reasoning: At some point, the Hawks have to turn in a different direction, as they already have with their front office. While this is not in any way as sure a thing as Durant being dealt, it certainly looms.
Trade machine: A Heat package of Wiggins, Jaquez, Jovic and Kyle Anderson presently would work under the cap.
Riley reasoning: This simply would be a case of upgrading talent first, leaving the rest to the coaching brilliance of Erik Spoelstra. But Young and Herro defensively in the same backcourt? In that regard, an argument could be made about Wiggins being the better fit than such a trade. Still, tires at least could be kicked.
Damian Lillard
Marketing reasoning: Another quick playoff demise and something will have to change in Milwaukee after what would be consecutive first-round ousters.
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Trade machine: A package of Wiggins, Rozier and Jovic would work under the cap.
Riley reasoning: Unlike the thought process of Riley making runs with Durant until he gets his man, this is wholly different from the Heat’s previous gambit for Lillard. The Heat already have lived through the blood-clot issues with Chris Bosh. While each medical circumstance is different, do the Heat go back there? Herro could possibly be subbed into a permutation for Lillard, but that’s a lot of age differential.
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Market reasoning: When does patience run too thin? Certainly not an anticipated move, but keep an eye if any smoke leads to a fire.
Trade machine: A package of Bam Adebayo, Kel’el Ware, Jaime Jaquez, Nikola Jovic and draft capital works under the cap.
Riley reasoning: With all due respect to cultural cornerstone Adebayo, a generational player forces you to push all your chips to the middle of the table. The question with such a package is if there would be enough left on the Heat to entice Antetokounmpo.
IN THE LANE
DONCIC WINDOW: When taking into consideration any potential big-time offseason transaction for the Heat or elsewhere, also keep in mind one additional timing element: The window for a Luka Doncic extension opens on Aug. 2. For those that might want to transact, any moves with future payrolls well could take into consideration what happens next with Doncic. That creates yet another scenario where these playoffs could impact a wild personnel offseason. And when it comes to Luka, keep an eye on whether the Heat formally add Goran Dragic somewhere to their staff, which could open eyes to a Slovenian fullcourt press.
TRADE THE PICK: With all due respect to the work of Adam Simon and the Heat scouting staff that already is in progress, the greatest benefit of securing June’s No. 20 selection from the Golden State Warriors from the Jimmy Butler trade might be to trade it for a future first-round pick to reopen flexibility. With the Heat still owing Charlotte a first-round pick to complete the Terry Rozier trade, by securing a future pick, perhaps in one of the two years the selection could go to Charlotte (either 2027 or ‘28), it would thereby open packaging possibilities down the road. As it is, there already is plenty in the Heat pipeline to develop, from Kel’el Ware to Nikola Jovic to Jaime Jaquez Jr. to Pelle Larsson to Keshad Johnson to those who were on two-way contracts this season.
OVER THERE: A pair of former Heat players took home European honors over the past week. Former Heat rookie standout Kendrick Nunn, who has been starring in Greece the past two seasons, was named EuroLeague Most Valuable Player. Nunn led the league at 21.1 points per game (games are 40 minutes, not the NBA’s 48) on .503 from the field and .426 on 3-pointers. Among those on Nunn’s loaded Panathinaikos roster are former NBA players Juancho Hernangómez, Jerian Grant, Cedi Osman, Wenyen Gabriel and Kostas Antetokounmpo. Then there is (very briefly) former Heat guard Zoran Dragic (brother of Goran), who, at 35, this past week helped Bilbao Basket of the Spanish League to the EuropeCup championship, a second-tier title.
NUMBER
2. Times the Heat have been victimized by at least 10 opposing 3-pointers in a playoff quarter, something that has happened only five times in NBA postseason history. In addition to Cleveland’s NBA-record 11 in the second quarter of Wednesday night’s Game 3, the Heat also yielded 10 to the Bucks in the first quarter of a May 24, 2021 first-round 132-98 Game 2 road loss.
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