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EDMONTON – Every goalie has a weakness.
The key is to find it and execute the right plan to exploit it.
Now, I just need the Edmonton Oilers to read this article so they know what they have to do to beat those pesky Los Angeles Kings for the fourth consecutive playoff run.
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I’ve found gold – the secret. The funny thing, though, is that it’s not a big secret at all. It’s one of the most overused cliches in all of hockey.
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'Pure Genius': Oilers Legend Messier On What Made Gretzky GreatEDMONTON – “I don’t think anybody’s ever played the game the way Wayne has.” Get to the net, get in the blue paint, that’s where you score goals.
That’s where we will go now, to the blue paint. There lies the answer to two things: how Stuart Skinner is better than Darcy Kuemper, and how the Oilers can beat the Kings.
Stuart Skinner vs. Darcy Kuemper: Moneypuck Data
First of all, huge shout-out to Moneypuck. They make this hockey journalist’s life easier on a daily basis, so thank you.
The data on Moneypuck surrounding goalies is fascinating, especially when you look at where the goalies rank on Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). When you look at the very bottom of the chart (17th out of 17) you see lowly ol’ Skinner with a -4.7 GSAx.
But look closer.
Kuemper only sits two spots higher (15th) with a -3.0 GSAx. But this is only where it starts to get good.
Kuemper has a .615 medium-danger unblocked shot attempt save percentage, Skinner’s is .760. They rank 17th and 16th in this metric, respectively.
Kuemper also has a .333 high-danger unblocked shot attempt save percentage. On the other hand, Skinner’s is .600. Aside from being better than Kuemper in this statistic, Skinner also has a better high-danger unblocked shot attempt save percentage than Connor Hellebuyck, Anthony Stolarz, and Jake Oettinger.
Stuart Skinner vs. Darcy Kuemper: NHL Edge Data
Looking at the NHL Edge data that is available gives us more useful information.
According to this data, Skinner has a 1.000 save percentage from long range, the same as Kuemper. Both goaltenders are above the league average (.982) in this regard.
For mid-range, Kuemper has a .929 while Skinner has a .864 save percentage. Kuemper is above league average, while Skinner is a touch below (.890).
Now Oilers fans, here’s the fun part.
Kuemper has a .500 high danger save percentage, while Skinner holds a .571. Both are below the league average of .784.
Skinner has faced 14 high danger shots, six have ended up in the back of the net. Kuemper has faced 10 high danger shots with five resulting as goals.
Conclusion: A Word About Blue Paint
To summarize the findings of all of this data, Kuemper is a worse goaltender when facing high-danger chances than Skinner is. The simplest way for the Oilers to gain an upperhand in this series is to get more high-danger chances.
Skinner isn’t the best goalie in every facet of the game. But, the Oilers could help out their netminder a ton by limiting the high-danger chances he’s been facing. The league average high-danger shots (according to NHL Edge) is 12.8. Skinner has faced 14 (as mentioned above). They can prevent a lot of goals from being scored by simply eliminating those opportunities.
Now, the Oilers must go forth, crash the net, and cash in. The likes of Evander Kane, Corey Perry, Zach Hyman, and others, need to make Kuemper’s life a nightmare infront of the net.
If they can do that, they can stay alive.
Just go to the blue paint.
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