I'm not a big fan of John Hollinger, but I did appreciate these two articles on the winners and losers of free agency so far. The losers is in another thread.
Bulls are big winners in free agency so farBy John Hollinger
ESPN Insider
Archive
The free-agent feeding frenzy is off to an unusually quick start this summer, perhaps propelled by the near-total lack of anyone even remotely resembling a superstar. With so little quality on the market, teams with cap space jumped in early and drove up the bidding on the few players worth more than the midlevel exception.
Some teams play this game better than others, however, so it's time to begin sorting out the winners and losers. While this may seem mildly insane given that we've had less than a week of dealing and contracts can't be signed until next Wednesday, enough activity has already gone down that there's plenty of material with which to work.
Gregory Shamus/Getty Images
Wallace will add defense and rebounding ... but scoring plays like this are rare.
Let's start with the winners, or rather The Winner. Actually, there are two other teams that qualify as winners, but the Chicago Bulls are the runaway winner from early July on my scorecard.
I have them in that spot not only because of the signing of Ben Wallace, but for the ancillary moves they've made (and are still making) that has them positioned to be a major player in the East for years to come.
The story begins with Wallace, though, since he's the main piece around which the others will revolve.
The Bulls have become a pretty decent team even without an All-Star caliber player -- they won 41 games in 2005-06 and took Miami to six games in the first round. If they were able to do that with a frontcourt in which Malik Allen, Mike Sweetney, Darius Songaila and Othella Harrington played major roles (starting 94 games between them), one has to think their odds of joining the 50-win elite in the East improve significantly with Big Ben in the middle.
Moreover, they didn't overpay as grossly as some might fear. They gave Wallace some serious wampum at $15 million a year, but for an All-Star center that's not horribly extravagant. A year earlier, for instance, Zydrunas Ilgauskas got five years and $55 million from the Cavs, and his health concerns were more serious than those for Wallace.
I won't even talk about what Erick Dampier, Samuel Dalembert, Eddy Curry and Tyson Chandler got in the last two offseasons. Even Wallace's former team, who presumably would be able to gauge his value the best, offered an average of $13 million a year. Chicago overpaid, but it wasn't by a lot.
Additionally, the Bulls gave Wallace a four-year deal, not the standard five or six-year fare, which means if he turns out to be a bust they won't spend the next five years trying to dump his contract.
That may seem like a minor point now, but it's an important consideration when you look at some of the recent big free-agent contracts.
Over the past two years, 34 different players signed free-agent deals worth at least $35 million. Of those, by my count, there are at least 15 whose teams would gladly give them away if they could. I mean literally give them away, just to be rid of the contract.
(Those lucky souls would be Dampier, Dalembert, Chandler, Darius Miles, Kenyon Martin, Brian Cardinal, Marquis Daniels, Adonal Foyle, Marko Jaric, Troy Hudson, Mark Blount, Quentin Richardson, Etan Thomas and Derek Fisher, whom in fact the Warriors did just hand over to the Jazz.)
Beyond those, there are at least another five whose teams deeply regret signing them (or should) -- Curry, Carlos Boozer, Larry Hughes, Stephen Jackson, and Bobby Simmons.
So basically, out of 34 players, at least 20 have worked out absolutely terribly for the team that signed them. Even that list leaves out a few deals that don't seem so fragrant now and could eventually make the list (Cuttino Mobley in L.A., for instance, or Dan Gadzuric in Milwaukee).
Twenty busts out of 34 contracts. Isn't that amazing, considering these teams are the supposed "winners" of free agency? And shouldn't that be a huge signal that teams ought to be more careful in taking risks like this in the free agent market?
Thus, teams need to factor in the possibility of needing to dump the contract at some point, and the risk of being stuck with a cap-killer like K-Mart's deal in Denver. By limiting the years on Wallace's deal, Chicago did that. Yes, they still overpaid, but in this market you have to. The Bulls at least limited their risk as much as they could.
Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images
Chandler disappeared in the playoffs for the Bulls (1.8 points per game).
Additionally, the fit couldn't be more perfect. The Bulls are hardcore about defense, so Wallace should be right at home at that end of the floor. He'll take over the role previously filled by Tyson Chandler, only he'll do it much, much more effectively. And because the Bulls like to push the pace offensively, he should be able to benefit from more easy transition baskets than he got in Detroit's plodding system.
But I like the Bulls' moves for more than just the Wallace signing. As I mentioned above, they've done yeoman work in getting the proper surrounding pieces in place. Most notable is the deal the Bulls have made that will send Chandler to the Hornets for forward P.J. Brown and guard J.R. Smith.
If and when this trade is consummated on July 12, as expected, it will be a huge win for the Bulls on several levels.
In terms of the talent acquired, it's exactly what Chicago needs. Smith is a 6-6 shooting guard with massive potential as a scorer, and the two things the Bulls need most desperately are scoring and big guards. And in terms of the talent departed, it's exactly what the Bulls don't need -- in Wallace, they already have a center who defends and rebounds but can't score, and he's better than Chandler.
Second, there's the salary angle. Brown's contract expires after the season, while Chandler still has five years left on his deal. This is hugely important for the Bulls because it will pull them far enough away from the luxury tax that they can keep adding to their core next year -- even after they extend the contracts of Kirk Hinrich and Andres Nocioni, who are both eligible for deals this fall.
Finally, there's the big fish they're still trying to catch. The one thing the Bulls lack is a genuine superstar, and there's a certain fellow in Minnesota who has Chicago roots and could fill that niche nicely. Even if they can't obtain Kevin Garnett this summer, the Chandler deal keeps the Bulls in position to make a run at him in the next 12 months by adding an enticing young trade pawn in Smith and maintaining enough luxury-tax room to absorb Garnett's behemoth salary.
Besides, it's tough not to like Paxson's trades when he chooses his partners so well. His trading strategy of the past few years can neatly be summarized as "find the biggest sucker at the table and take all his chips before everyone else does."
Just look at what happened when Isiah Thomas took over in New York. Right away, there was Pax-man on the phone, happily dishing out a Jamal Crawford appetizer before serving up the Curry main course.
In the 2006 draft, Paxson expanded his trading universe only slightly, keeping his dealings limited to the lost-at-sea, GM-less Blazers and the Sixers' embattled Billy King and ending up with high-flying forward Tyrus Thomas and Swiss swingman Thabo Sefolosha.
So now I have to wonder -- is the Hornets' Jeff Bower Paxson's next target? Bower hasn't seemed a fool in his brief stewardship, but perhaps Paxson knows something we don't. Certainly the Hornets' moves this summer leave a lot to be desired as I discuss in my rundown of July's losers.
Regardless, it's hard not to like these revamped Bulls. It's not just that they added a cornerstone in Big Ben, it's that they did it while keeping their risk somewhat limited and staying in position to strike if Kevin Garnett becomes available. They seem ready to make the leap to the Eastern Conference's elite, and for that reason I'm crowning them the big winner of the first week of free agency.
Other winners:
Los Angeles Clippers
Beyond the shocking fact that they actually spent some money was the nearly equally shocking fact that they spent it fairly intelligently. Sam Cassell's 2-year, $13 million deal is completely, utterly reasonable, which is almost unheard of in an offseason that's already seen several goofball contracts thrown around.
I was less thrilled with Tim Thomas's four-year, $24 million deal, but if the choice is between that and paying $31 million to Vladimir Radmanovic, I'll take Thomas, thanks. Not only will he do the same things Vlad did for less money, but adding him also takes a bite out of the Clippers' key rival for Pacific Division supremacy.
You could almost picture a faux-apologetic Elgin Baylor calling Mike D'Antoni and saying, "Sorry we took your player. By the way, enjoy the Eric Piatkowski era. He's a legend here."
Milwaukee Bucks
I've always felt Larry Harris was an underrated GM, and he made a great deal trading T.J. Ford for Charlie V. A great deal.
There's much more on this in my July losers column, in which I talk about the Toronto Raptors, so I won't repeat myself here, but suffice to say that between Chicago and Milwaukee the Central Division just got even tougher.
Bulls are big winners in free agency so farBy John Hollinger
ESPN Insider
Archive
The free-agent feeding frenzy is off to an unusually quick start this summer, perhaps propelled by the near-total lack of anyone even remotely resembling a superstar. With so little quality on the market, teams with cap space jumped in early and drove up the bidding on the few players worth more than the midlevel exception.
Some teams play this game better than others, however, so it's time to begin sorting out the winners and losers. While this may seem mildly insane given that we've had less than a week of dealing and contracts can't be signed until next Wednesday, enough activity has already gone down that there's plenty of material with which to work.
Gregory Shamus/Getty Images
Wallace will add defense and rebounding ... but scoring plays like this are rare.
Let's start with the winners, or rather The Winner. Actually, there are two other teams that qualify as winners, but the Chicago Bulls are the runaway winner from early July on my scorecard.
I have them in that spot not only because of the signing of Ben Wallace, but for the ancillary moves they've made (and are still making) that has them positioned to be a major player in the East for years to come.
The story begins with Wallace, though, since he's the main piece around which the others will revolve.
The Bulls have become a pretty decent team even without an All-Star caliber player -- they won 41 games in 2005-06 and took Miami to six games in the first round. If they were able to do that with a frontcourt in which Malik Allen, Mike Sweetney, Darius Songaila and Othella Harrington played major roles (starting 94 games between them), one has to think their odds of joining the 50-win elite in the East improve significantly with Big Ben in the middle.
Moreover, they didn't overpay as grossly as some might fear. They gave Wallace some serious wampum at $15 million a year, but for an All-Star center that's not horribly extravagant. A year earlier, for instance, Zydrunas Ilgauskas got five years and $55 million from the Cavs, and his health concerns were more serious than those for Wallace.
I won't even talk about what Erick Dampier, Samuel Dalembert, Eddy Curry and Tyson Chandler got in the last two offseasons. Even Wallace's former team, who presumably would be able to gauge his value the best, offered an average of $13 million a year. Chicago overpaid, but it wasn't by a lot.
Additionally, the Bulls gave Wallace a four-year deal, not the standard five or six-year fare, which means if he turns out to be a bust they won't spend the next five years trying to dump his contract.
That may seem like a minor point now, but it's an important consideration when you look at some of the recent big free-agent contracts.
Over the past two years, 34 different players signed free-agent deals worth at least $35 million. Of those, by my count, there are at least 15 whose teams would gladly give them away if they could. I mean literally give them away, just to be rid of the contract.
(Those lucky souls would be Dampier, Dalembert, Chandler, Darius Miles, Kenyon Martin, Brian Cardinal, Marquis Daniels, Adonal Foyle, Marko Jaric, Troy Hudson, Mark Blount, Quentin Richardson, Etan Thomas and Derek Fisher, whom in fact the Warriors did just hand over to the Jazz.)
Beyond those, there are at least another five whose teams deeply regret signing them (or should) -- Curry, Carlos Boozer, Larry Hughes, Stephen Jackson, and Bobby Simmons.
So basically, out of 34 players, at least 20 have worked out absolutely terribly for the team that signed them. Even that list leaves out a few deals that don't seem so fragrant now and could eventually make the list (Cuttino Mobley in L.A., for instance, or Dan Gadzuric in Milwaukee).
Twenty busts out of 34 contracts. Isn't that amazing, considering these teams are the supposed "winners" of free agency? And shouldn't that be a huge signal that teams ought to be more careful in taking risks like this in the free agent market?
Thus, teams need to factor in the possibility of needing to dump the contract at some point, and the risk of being stuck with a cap-killer like K-Mart's deal in Denver. By limiting the years on Wallace's deal, Chicago did that. Yes, they still overpaid, but in this market you have to. The Bulls at least limited their risk as much as they could.
Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images
Chandler disappeared in the playoffs for the Bulls (1.8 points per game).
Additionally, the fit couldn't be more perfect. The Bulls are hardcore about defense, so Wallace should be right at home at that end of the floor. He'll take over the role previously filled by Tyson Chandler, only he'll do it much, much more effectively. And because the Bulls like to push the pace offensively, he should be able to benefit from more easy transition baskets than he got in Detroit's plodding system.
But I like the Bulls' moves for more than just the Wallace signing. As I mentioned above, they've done yeoman work in getting the proper surrounding pieces in place. Most notable is the deal the Bulls have made that will send Chandler to the Hornets for forward P.J. Brown and guard J.R. Smith.
If and when this trade is consummated on July 12, as expected, it will be a huge win for the Bulls on several levels.
In terms of the talent acquired, it's exactly what Chicago needs. Smith is a 6-6 shooting guard with massive potential as a scorer, and the two things the Bulls need most desperately are scoring and big guards. And in terms of the talent departed, it's exactly what the Bulls don't need -- in Wallace, they already have a center who defends and rebounds but can't score, and he's better than Chandler.
Second, there's the salary angle. Brown's contract expires after the season, while Chandler still has five years left on his deal. This is hugely important for the Bulls because it will pull them far enough away from the luxury tax that they can keep adding to their core next year -- even after they extend the contracts of Kirk Hinrich and Andres Nocioni, who are both eligible for deals this fall.
Finally, there's the big fish they're still trying to catch. The one thing the Bulls lack is a genuine superstar, and there's a certain fellow in Minnesota who has Chicago roots and could fill that niche nicely. Even if they can't obtain Kevin Garnett this summer, the Chandler deal keeps the Bulls in position to make a run at him in the next 12 months by adding an enticing young trade pawn in Smith and maintaining enough luxury-tax room to absorb Garnett's behemoth salary.
Besides, it's tough not to like Paxson's trades when he chooses his partners so well. His trading strategy of the past few years can neatly be summarized as "find the biggest sucker at the table and take all his chips before everyone else does."
Just look at what happened when Isiah Thomas took over in New York. Right away, there was Pax-man on the phone, happily dishing out a Jamal Crawford appetizer before serving up the Curry main course.
In the 2006 draft, Paxson expanded his trading universe only slightly, keeping his dealings limited to the lost-at-sea, GM-less Blazers and the Sixers' embattled Billy King and ending up with high-flying forward Tyrus Thomas and Swiss swingman Thabo Sefolosha.
So now I have to wonder -- is the Hornets' Jeff Bower Paxson's next target? Bower hasn't seemed a fool in his brief stewardship, but perhaps Paxson knows something we don't. Certainly the Hornets' moves this summer leave a lot to be desired as I discuss in my rundown of July's losers.
Regardless, it's hard not to like these revamped Bulls. It's not just that they added a cornerstone in Big Ben, it's that they did it while keeping their risk somewhat limited and staying in position to strike if Kevin Garnett becomes available. They seem ready to make the leap to the Eastern Conference's elite, and for that reason I'm crowning them the big winner of the first week of free agency.
Other winners:
Los Angeles Clippers
Beyond the shocking fact that they actually spent some money was the nearly equally shocking fact that they spent it fairly intelligently. Sam Cassell's 2-year, $13 million deal is completely, utterly reasonable, which is almost unheard of in an offseason that's already seen several goofball contracts thrown around.
I was less thrilled with Tim Thomas's four-year, $24 million deal, but if the choice is between that and paying $31 million to Vladimir Radmanovic, I'll take Thomas, thanks. Not only will he do the same things Vlad did for less money, but adding him also takes a bite out of the Clippers' key rival for Pacific Division supremacy.
You could almost picture a faux-apologetic Elgin Baylor calling Mike D'Antoni and saying, "Sorry we took your player. By the way, enjoy the Eric Piatkowski era. He's a legend here."
Milwaukee Bucks
I've always felt Larry Harris was an underrated GM, and he made a great deal trading T.J. Ford for Charlie V. A great deal.
There's much more on this in my July losers column, in which I talk about the Toronto Raptors, so I won't repeat myself here, but suffice to say that between Chicago and Milwaukee the Central Division just got even tougher.
