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The Phillies’ bullpen has largely improved from a middling 2025 season. In 2025, the team’s relief corps ranked 20th in ERA (4.27), FIP (4.26), and fWAR (2.9), while sporting the seventh-worst batting average against (.245).
This year, despite a middle-of-the-pack 3.91 ERA, the bullpen ranks highly in a number of important stats. The Phillies are 2nd in FIP (3.45), fWAR (3.4, tied with the New York Mets), and 4th in strikeout rate (25.2%). Jhoan Duran, Tim Mayza, Orion Kerkering, and Chase Shugart are among those who have played a big role in shaping the bullpen’s effectiveness.
Not every reliever has been a success story. Brad Keller has mixed results this year, with his most recent outing turning into a near meltdown against the Brewers. Despite his struggles, he’d been trusted with the setup role for Duran before his recent injury. He’s not the only important high-leverage reliever to struggle this year, either.
Jose Alvarado has struggled greatly this year, with a 6.58 ERA and .865 OPS against. His -0.5 bWAR has made him one of the least valuable pitchers on the team this year.
While his surface-level numbers haven’t been impressive, there’s evidence to support that he’s been very unlucky this year.
The Definitively Bad With Jose Alvarado
Alvarado’s numbers indicate some bad luck, but are there stats that have just been bad?
To start, his 35.9 GB% would be the lowest of his career. In the past, the lefty has thrived on keeping the ball on the ground when batters do make contact against him. This year, his groundball rate has dropped to well below the league average, a rarity for him.
His wOBA of .379 sits towards the bottom of the league, over 60 points above the league average of .318. Batters are making more impactful contact against him, and while that isn’t turning into strictly home runs, his .468 slugging percentage against indicates that batters are getting extra bases against him at a much more frequent rate.
Alvarado is also struggling to limit the run game. His bases prevented versus average (factoring steals and balks) is -5 this year, with him primarily getting burned by stolen bases. Nine batters have stolen bases against Alvarado this year, with just one runner getting caught stealing. Batters are too comfortable taking an extra base against him, creating more opportunities to put runners in scoring position.
His field work isn’t helping either. Alvarado’s -3 defensive runs saved ties his career-worst, set in the 2024 season over 66 games. But this year, he’s matched that total in just 32 games. Among all pitchers (minimum 20 innings pitched), that mark is tied with a handful of others for the second-worst in baseball, just behind Eury Perez with -4 DRS. Clearly, there’s evidence that Alvarado is having a career-worst year. But what signs are pointing to extreme misfortune?
Alvarado’s Elite Metrics Are Illustrating Misfortune
While Jose Alvarado’s ERA would be a career high, the southpaw has still posted elite metrics. In terms of quality of contact and strikeout stats, Alvarado is still ranking near the top of the league. By Baseball Savant’s percentile rankings, he’s in the 80th percentile or better in:
- HardHit%- 90th percentile (30.8%)
- Barrel%- 91st percentile (3.9%)
- Chase%- 95th percentile (36.6%)
- Whiff%- 84th percentile (39.7%)
- K%- 81st percentile (26.8%)
Known for erratic control, Alvarado has done surprisingly well in 2026. His 7.9% walk rate would be the third best of his career. In a postgame interview on June 18, Alvarado told reporters, “When you look back at the Alvy from the past […] now, I’m more in the strike zone.”
ERA predictors have been more generous towards him as well. Alvarado’s FIP of 3.71 indicates some degree of poor luck, especially when compared to his actual ERA. The major discrepancy between his ERA and FIP is tied for the third-highest in baseball, with a difference of 2.87.
What does this actually mean, however?
Based on the definition of FIP, Alvarado succeeds in the vacuum of baseball’s “three true outcomes” (walks, strikeouts, home runs). By limiting him to this scope only, his 3.71 FIP shows that he has done all three acceptably.
Misfortune has found him in other ways as well. In his most recent outing, Marcus Semien swung at a cutter below the zone for what should have been an inning-ending strikeout. Instead, he correctly suspected he tipped the ball into the dirt, which was shown by a mark on the ball. That second chance turned into a two-run triple that gave the Mets a 6-3 lead they wouldn’t relinquish.
What Should the Phillies Expect Going Forward?
Despite how unlucky Alvarado has been, his struggles can’t be written off as just misfortune. And while his last outing became a painful example of the expression “baseball is a game of inches,” he brought some of that trouble upon himself before Semien stepped up to the plate.
Before Semien’s at-bat, Alvarado gave up a leadoff single to Carson Benge. He got two outs quickly, then unraveled. Benge stole second, reached third on a wild pitch, and then Mark Vientos was walked to extend the inning. Pinch-hitter Eric Wagaman drove in the go-ahead run, then Semien put the nail in the coffin with his triple.
Like the team’s other pitchers, Alvarado is also pitching behind one of baseball’s worst defenses. Philadelphia’s defense is creating more traffic on the basepaths by missing plays and creating more opportunities for opponents to score. This has harmed the staff as a whole, though pitchers like Alvarado are ones who have shown that the most.
But Alvarado’s stuff is still relatively intact. Batters aren’t making the best contact against him and are swinging and missing at an elite rate for the lefty. His walk rate is significantly lower than his career average.
Whether all he needs is a better location or a mechanical change, the best version of Jose Alvarado may not be as far away as it seems.
The post Has Jose Alvarado Been Bad, or Just Incredibly Unlucky for Phillies? appeared first on The Lead.
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