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Is Hao-Yu Lee a dude?
Hao-Yu Lee’s second stint with Detroit has started to give the Tigers a clearer read on what he might be, even if the overall profile is still incomplete.
Through 145 plate appearances, Lee is hitting .255 with a .292 on-base percentage, .401 slugging percentage and .693 OPS. He has 35 hits, seven doubles, one triple, four home runs and 15 RBI. Those are not numbers that force a permanent role by themselves, but they are enough to keep the evaluation open, especially because his June production showed a much better version of the hitter.
The clearest shift came last month. After hitting .208 in April and .185 in May, Lee hit .352 in June with a .375 on-base percentage, .519 slugging percentage and .894 OPS. In the Baseball Savant monthly breakdown, he hit .367 in June on 49 at-bats with 18 hits, three doubles, two home runs and a 16.3% strikeout rate. That is the part Detroit has to pay attention to. Lee was not just getting a few soft singles to fall in. His hard-hit rate in June was 39%, and his season barrel rate sits at 8.2%, slightly above the MLB average listed on the page.
The larger profile, though, still comes with clear limitations. Lee’s season-long expected numbers are lower than the results, with a .221 xBA, .367 xSLG and .273 xwOBA. That points to some regression risk if the contact quality does not hold. His strikeout rate is also high at 27.6%, and his walk rate is only 4.8%. That combination makes the margin thin. When Lee is putting the ball in play with authority, he can look like a useful offensive piece. When the swing-and-miss shows up and he is not drawing walks, the profile can get quiet fast.
That is why his platoon splits matter. Lee has been better against left-handed pitching, hitting .274 with a .308 OBP, .468 slugging percentage and .776 OPS. Against right-handers, he is at .240/.278/.347 with a .625 OPS. That does not close the book on him as a full-time option, but it does suggest the Tigers may be looking at him first as a right-handed bat who can help against lefties, provide some extra-base damage and give them more athleticism in the infield.
Defensively, the second base work is part of the argument to keep watching him. Lee looks more comfortable there than he did earlier, and the Tigers have needed steadier play at that spot. The Statcast fielding numbers are not strong yet, with his fielding run value sitting in the lower third of the league, but the recent defensive improvement at second gives Detroit something to evaluate beyond the bat. If he can handle the routine plays, turn the double play cleanly and avoid forcing the Tigers to protect him late in games, the offensive bar becomes more manageable.
Lee is also not a station-to-station player. His sprint speed is listed in the 75th percentile, which gives him another way to help, even if it has not translated into much stolen-base production yet. He can take the extra base, pressure defenses and give the Tigers a little more movement in the bottom half of the order.
The question now is whether Lee is playing his way into a role next season. In practical terms, this is a tryout. The Tigers are not just looking at his batting average. They are looking at whether the June version is closer to the real player, whether the swing decisions can improve, whether the strikeouts can come down and whether his defense at second continues to stabilize.
Right now, Lee looks like a useful depth infielder with a chance to become more if the bat holds. The realistic version is a right-handed second baseman who can hit lefties, provide some power, run well and give Detroit competitive at-bats near the bottom of the lineup. The better version is a player who cuts the swing-and-miss enough to stay in the lineup more often.
The Tigers do not need to decide the whole thing today. They do need to use this stretch to find out if Lee is just covering innings or if he is part of the next roster build. So far, his second tour has been uneven, but June made the evaluation more interesting, and the improved defense at second gives him a better case than he had the first time around.
Follow me on "X" @rogcastbaseball
Continue reading...
Hao-Yu Lee’s second stint with Detroit has started to give the Tigers a clearer read on what he might be, even if the overall profile is still incomplete.
Through 145 plate appearances, Lee is hitting .255 with a .292 on-base percentage, .401 slugging percentage and .693 OPS. He has 35 hits, seven doubles, one triple, four home runs and 15 RBI. Those are not numbers that force a permanent role by themselves, but they are enough to keep the evaluation open, especially because his June production showed a much better version of the hitter.
The clearest shift came last month. After hitting .208 in April and .185 in May, Lee hit .352 in June with a .375 on-base percentage, .519 slugging percentage and .894 OPS. In the Baseball Savant monthly breakdown, he hit .367 in June on 49 at-bats with 18 hits, three doubles, two home runs and a 16.3% strikeout rate. That is the part Detroit has to pay attention to. Lee was not just getting a few soft singles to fall in. His hard-hit rate in June was 39%, and his season barrel rate sits at 8.2%, slightly above the MLB average listed on the page.
The larger profile, though, still comes with clear limitations. Lee’s season-long expected numbers are lower than the results, with a .221 xBA, .367 xSLG and .273 xwOBA. That points to some regression risk if the contact quality does not hold. His strikeout rate is also high at 27.6%, and his walk rate is only 4.8%. That combination makes the margin thin. When Lee is putting the ball in play with authority, he can look like a useful offensive piece. When the swing-and-miss shows up and he is not drawing walks, the profile can get quiet fast.
That is why his platoon splits matter. Lee has been better against left-handed pitching, hitting .274 with a .308 OBP, .468 slugging percentage and .776 OPS. Against right-handers, he is at .240/.278/.347 with a .625 OPS. That does not close the book on him as a full-time option, but it does suggest the Tigers may be looking at him first as a right-handed bat who can help against lefties, provide some extra-base damage and give them more athleticism in the infield.
Defensively, the second base work is part of the argument to keep watching him. Lee looks more comfortable there than he did earlier, and the Tigers have needed steadier play at that spot. The Statcast fielding numbers are not strong yet, with his fielding run value sitting in the lower third of the league, but the recent defensive improvement at second gives Detroit something to evaluate beyond the bat. If he can handle the routine plays, turn the double play cleanly and avoid forcing the Tigers to protect him late in games, the offensive bar becomes more manageable.
Lee is also not a station-to-station player. His sprint speed is listed in the 75th percentile, which gives him another way to help, even if it has not translated into much stolen-base production yet. He can take the extra base, pressure defenses and give the Tigers a little more movement in the bottom half of the order.
The question now is whether Lee is playing his way into a role next season. In practical terms, this is a tryout. The Tigers are not just looking at his batting average. They are looking at whether the June version is closer to the real player, whether the swing decisions can improve, whether the strikeouts can come down and whether his defense at second continues to stabilize.
Right now, Lee looks like a useful depth infielder with a chance to become more if the bat holds. The realistic version is a right-handed second baseman who can hit lefties, provide some power, run well and give Detroit competitive at-bats near the bottom of the lineup. The better version is a player who cuts the swing-and-miss enough to stay in the lineup more often.
The Tigers do not need to decide the whole thing today. They do need to use this stretch to find out if Lee is just covering innings or if he is part of the next roster build. So far, his second tour has been uneven, but June made the evaluation more interesting, and the improved defense at second gives him a better case than he had the first time around.
Follow me on "X" @rogcastbaseball
Continue reading...
