Give Carson Williams the Keys to the Car

[ASFN Admin]

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The Rays are weighing their 2026 shortstop options: Taylor Walls, Carson Williams, or an external stopgap to buy Williams more development time. I don’t think an outside addition is necessary. Williams is ready for a full-time MLB role, and his 2025 season showed he has outgrown Triple-A and begun adjusting to major-league pitching.

Proved Himself in AAA​

His surface stats with Durham, including a 34.1 K% and 98 wRC+, don’t scream “promotion-ready,” but they miss the real story. Williams already brings plus speed and power with double-plus defense at SS; the only real question has been his hit tool. His bat speed is plus, though his longer swing means he’ll always be somewhat whiff-prone. Even so, he improved from a 30-grade to a 40-grade hitter in 2025, driven largely by better pitch recognition.

His AAA data from his first few months to his final few months shows clear adjustment (I chose 94mph as the cut-off because that was roughly the average MLB fastball velocity in 2025):

March – May	June – August
SLG vs Fastballs	.347	.478
Whiff% vs Fastballs	30.2%	31.5%
SLG vs 94mph+	.267	.448
Whiff% vs 94mph+	25.5%	34.7%
SLG vs Secondaries	.483	.583
Whiff% vs Secondaries	45.7%	39.8%
Total SLG	.341	.538
Total Whiff%	42.0%	35.9%

This is a player who solved Triple-A pitching as much as his skillset will allow. Sending Williams back would simply produce a repeat of the mid-.500s SLG and low-30s whiff rates he already demonstrated – not a meaningful developmental challenge. The only pitchers capable of pushing his growth now are in the majors.

MLB Struggles and Real Adjustments​

Carson’s initial big-league line looks rough, but the underlying trends matter more than the specific small-sample numbers. Across roughly 106 PAs, his performance broke into three distinct phases

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Early on, he was passive but made solid contact and did not chase much. Then as pitchers attacked the zone a bit more, he was a little too aggressive as well as not selective. His contact cratered; however, good players adjust, and Williams made some clear adjustments in his final third of games: he remained aggressive but stayed in-zone more and recovered some bat-to-ball ability as a result.

Carson’s first half of MLB PAs:

• Nearly 34% chase rate, worse than average
• Sub 60% contact rate, much worse than average
• Sub 30% hardhit rate, worse than average

Carson’s second half of MLB PAs:

• Roughly 28% chase rate, league average
• Upper 60s contact rate, worse than average
• Over 45% hardhit rate, better than average

For Carson, the swing and miss will always be a feature and not a bug, but his adjustments – particularly in pitch recognition – will allow his offensive skillset to play in the majors. These adjustments and trends matter; the data shows he’s acclimating, and that’s what you need to see in a promoted prospect.

Potential Production​

Average SS production dating back to 2010 hovers around a 94-95 wRC+. Williams has the power to land near league average as a rookie, and possibly above it, even with swing-and-miss. His defense gives him a high floor, and his limited baseball experience (full-time baseball player and exclusively a SS only after he was drafted in 2021) suggests room for even more meaningful growth.

This winter’s free-agent SS class is weak, and teams are generally unwilling to trade capable shortstops. Adding a veteran would cost financial or prospect capital without providing clear and significant upgrade value – and would delay Carson’s necessary MLB reps. Perhaps the more sensible approach is to enter 2026 with Williams and Walls on the 26-man roster and let Kevin Cash make his decisions from there, but Carson Williams has nothing left to prove in Triple-A. His late-season MLB adjustments, defensive value, power, and improving plate skills make him the most logical and cost-effective Opening Day shortstop for the Rays.

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