For you Statistical Analysis lovers

[GoldGloveschmidt]

I started following Nate Silver and the Five Thirty Eight blog during the last Presidential election, where they predicted every single state accurately.

Since then, they have started covering football. These guys are the best of the best in the field of statistical analysis in my opinion. Here's a link to their blog.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/week-16-nfl-elo-ratings-and-playoff-odds/


Key takeaway: Yes, the Seahawks are favored, but not nearly as much as the public thinks. 538 has the Seahawks with a 56% win probability, Cardinals 44%. 1.5 point spread.

 

[Cardiac]

Good news bad news kind of thing. The dudes that are always right have us losing but not by much.

I will actually take it as good news and figure that they got most of it right up until they think the Seahawks will win.

 

[Azlen]

I'm curious as to how much Lindley starting figures into Silver's analysis. It would seem to come more into play in the Vegas odds.

 

[MrYeahBut]

Neat stuff to read even though I'm not into stats. I was surprised at Dallas and Packers low percentage of Super Bowl probability ... 5 and 6% respectively as compared to the Cards 11%

 

[kerouac9]

I'm curious as to how much Lindley starting figures into Silver's analysis. It would seem to come more into play in the Vegas odds.

It doesn't. ELO is a very remedial forecasting system.