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Prospect Information
College: Indiana
Height/Weight: 6’ 5"/236
Hands: 9 1/2"
Age: 22 (at the time of the 2026 season opener)
Important NFL Combine/Pro Day Numbers
40-Yard Dash: N/A
Vertical Jump: N/A
Broad Jump: N/A
20-Yard Shuttle: N/A
3-Cone: N/A
Model Overview — Why the Model Likes This Profile
My Quarterback Rookie Model is designed to isolate the traits that historically translate into fantasy-relevant quarterbacks. The model weighs several key indicators, including passing efficiency growth curves, big-time throw creation, vertical passing ability, turnover avoidance, rushing production, physical thresholds and expected draft capital.
Quarterbacks who combine strong passing efficiency with vertical aggression and even modest rushing output tend to produce the strongest early fantasy results.
Mendoza grades well in several of those categories. His profile stands out most in three areas:
• high-end adjusted completion efficiency
• explosive passing production growth
• enough mobility to generate a consistent rushing floor
When those traits appear together historically, quarterbacks tend to become fantasy starters rather than pure pocket passers.
Model Derived Metrics
BMI: 26.7
Athletic Score (QB model): 0.62
Mendoza does not profile as a dual-threat quarterback, but his athletic profile falls squarely into the modern pocket-mover archetype. These quarterbacks win from the pocket but can extend plays and scramble when necessary. Historically, this bucket produces quarterbacks who can generate fantasy value through passing efficiency with a modest rushing floor.
Efficiency Metrics
Adjusted Completion Percentage: 79.6% (8th)
Average Depth of Target: 9.6 (T-59th)
Big Time Throw Rate: 6.7% (19th)
Turnover Worthy Play Rate: 2.4% (T-32nd)
Deep Passing Yards: 896
Drop Rate: 2.4%
Pressure to Sack Rate: 18.3%
Time to Throw: 2.69 seconds
Passing Production
2025
16 games
3,536 yards
9.3 yards per attempt
41 touchdowns
6 interceptions
2024
11 games
3,004 yards
7.8 yards per attempt
16 touchdowns
6 interceptions
2023
9 games
1,708 yards
7.0 yards per attempt
14 touchdowns
10 interceptions
Rushing Production
2025
65 carries
316 yards
6 rushing touchdowns
2024
52 carries
334 yards
2 rushing touchdowns
2023
48 carries
92 yards
2 rushing touchdowns
Mendoza is not a designed-run quarterback, but he consistently generates scrambling production. Quarterbacks who produce between 250 and 350 rushing yards per season often gain a meaningful weekly fantasy floor.
Positive Indicators
Elite accuracy
A near 80% adjusted completion rate places Mendoza among the most efficient quarterbacks in the country.
Vertical passing efficiency
A 9.6 average depth of target combined with strong deep yardage totals indicates that his efficiency is not built on short throws or screen-heavy offenses.
Development curve
The model heavily rewards quarterbacks whose efficiency improves across multiple seasons. Mendoza shows the ideal progression:
2023 — early volatility
2024 — stabilization
2025 — elite production
This trajectory historically aligns more closely with long-term starters rather than one-year breakout passers.
Areas of Concern
Pressure-to-sack conversion
An 18% pressure-to-sack rate is slightly elevated. Quarterbacks with this tendency sometimes experience higher sack totals early in their NFL careers.
Athletic ceiling
While functional as a runner, Mendoza does not possess elite athletic testing numbers. His fantasy upside will rely more heavily on passing production rather than rushing volume.
Historical Model Comps
Using similarity across production, efficiency, rushing profile, physical build and draft capital range, the closest historical matches include:
J.J. McCarthy
Trevor Lawrence
Justin Herbert
Kenny Pickett
Mac Jones
These players represent a similar quarterback archetype: efficient pocket passers with enough mobility to extend plays but whose fantasy value is driven primarily through passing.
Model Projections
Year 1 projection: 209 fantasy points
Best season projection: 283 fantasy points
First three seasons total: 540 fantasy points
These projections historically align with rookie quarterbacks who become mid-tier fantasy starters once they establish themselves as full-time NFL starters.
Historical Fantasy Tier Outcomes
Based on similar quarterback profiles and draft capital expectations:
Elite QB1: 26%
Starter QB1: 14%
QB2: 31%
Bust / Backup: 29%
Combined probability of QB1 fantasy seasons: roughly 40%.
That success rate is above the historical average for quarterback prospects entering the NFL.
Dynasty Translation
Mendoza projects as the type of quarterback who generates fantasy value primarily through passing efficiency rather than rushing dominance.
Quarterbacks with this profile historically produce:
• stable QB2 seasons early in their careers
• occasional QB1 spikes in high-volume passing offenses
• long-term starter stability
If he lands in a system that emphasizes passing volume and vertical concepts, Mendoza could develop into a consistent fantasy starter rather than a rushing-driven league winner.
Early Career Fantasy Outlook
Most likely trajectory
Year 1: QB18–QB24 range
Year 2–3: QB10–QB16 range
For the film review of Mendoza, please click here.
This article originally appeared on The Huddle: Fernando Mendoza Analytical Profile and Fantasy Projection
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